Possible Ginsburg replacements if she retires?
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  Possible Ginsburg replacements if she retires?
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Author Topic: Possible Ginsburg replacements if she retires?  (Read 34045 times)
Progressive
jro660
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« on: December 06, 2014, 05:03:29 PM »

Any ideas (if she retires or leaves the bench before Obama is out of office).
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True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)
Ernest
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« Reply #1 on: December 06, 2014, 06:42:59 PM »

She's already ruled out retiring, and I don't think having stent put in her heart recently is going to change that.  She enjoys her work and feels she can continue to do a good job, and more importantly, that there is no way her replacement would be similar to her.  Indeed, she felt that way even before the Dems lost the Senate.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #2 on: December 28, 2014, 02:58:19 PM »
« Edited: December 28, 2014, 03:00:51 PM by OC »

Even if a conservative replaces Obama, and picks Ginnsberg's  replacement, by 2025, Kennedy and Scalia will join her in leaving the bench, so there will be ample opportunity for each party who wins, to get a crack at SCOTUS.


But a woman will proibably replace her.
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Ray Goldfield
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« Reply #3 on: December 28, 2014, 05:49:13 PM »

I think Obama will have pretty much free reign to nominate a replacement for her if she leaves. She's liberal enough that you can't push the court too hard to the left.

The only credible names he probably couldn't get confirmed was her replacement are Harold Koh (would rule based on international law rather than US law), Debo Adegbile (ties to Mumia), and Eric Holder (many problems, plus likely too old).

The Republicans have bigger fights to pick than a tit-for-tat replacement.

Now if Kennedy was to retire, Obama likely couldn't get any liberal-leaning judge but Merrick Garland through as a replacement.
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Vega
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« Reply #4 on: December 28, 2014, 05:52:15 PM »

I think Obama will have pretty much free reign to nominate a replacement for her if she leaves. She's liberal enough that you can't push the court too hard to the left.

The only credible names he probably couldn't get confirmed was her replacement are Harold Koh (would rule based on international law rather than US law), Debo Adegbile (ties to Mumia), and Eric Holder (many problems, plus likely too old).

The Republicans have bigger fights to pick than a tit-for-tat replacement.

Now if Kennedy was to retire, Obama likely couldn't get any liberal-leaning judge but Merrick Garland through as a replacement.

Literally nobody has brought up those names, and why would they?

And I don't get that bit about Koh. Even if it was the case, it'd be good. We need more European style law.
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bedstuy
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« Reply #5 on: December 28, 2014, 10:04:26 PM »

I think Obama will have pretty much free reign to nominate a replacement for her if she leaves. She's liberal enough that you can't push the court too hard to the left.

The only credible names he probably couldn't get confirmed was her replacement are Harold Koh (would rule based on international law rather than US law), Debo Adegbile (ties to Mumia), and Eric Holder (many problems, plus likely too old).

The Republicans have bigger fights to pick than a tit-for-tat replacement.

Now if Kennedy was to retire, Obama likely couldn't get any liberal-leaning judge but Merrick Garland through as a replacement.

Literally nobody has brought up those names, and why would they?

And I don't get that bit about Koh. Even if it was the case, it'd be good. We need more European style law.
Because the Supreme Court justice is supposed to rule based on the law of this country.. if you want European style law then you can get an amendment passed.

The Supreme Court uses the law of other countries if the case is governed by foreign law though, right?  I don't understand what the debate is there.  Nobody thinks that a US case between US litigants would be decided Brazilian law.  I'm sure you're misrepresenting Harold Koh's views.
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Frodo
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« Reply #6 on: December 28, 2014, 11:37:22 PM »

Are there any African-American or Asian-American female judges that President Obama can nominate to replace her that can be confirmed by a Republican Senate?
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Türkisblau
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« Reply #7 on: December 29, 2014, 08:11:22 AM »

Are there any African-American or Asian-American female judges that President Obama can nominate to replace her that can be confirmed by a Republican Senate?

There's been talk about Kamala Harris if she doesn't go into the Senate. I'm not sure if she would be confirmed or not.
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Citizen (The) Doctor
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« Reply #8 on: December 29, 2014, 05:47:26 PM »

Are there any African-American or Asian-American female judges that President Obama can nominate to replace her that can be confirmed by a Republican Senate?

There's Akhil Amar, although obviously not female.
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bedstuy
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« Reply #9 on: December 30, 2014, 12:24:07 AM »

I think Obama will have pretty much free reign to nominate a replacement for her if she leaves. She's liberal enough that you can't push the court too hard to the left.

The only credible names he probably couldn't get confirmed was her replacement are Harold Koh (would rule based on international law rather than US law), Debo Adegbile (ties to Mumia), and Eric Holder (many problems, plus likely too old).

The Republicans have bigger fights to pick than a tit-for-tat replacement.

Now if Kennedy was to retire, Obama likely couldn't get any liberal-leaning judge but Merrick Garland through as a replacement.

Literally nobody has brought up those names, and why would they?

And I don't get that bit about Koh. Even if it was the case, it'd be good. We need more European style law.
Because the Supreme Court justice is supposed to rule based on the law of this country.. if you want European style law then you can get an amendment passed.

The Supreme Court uses the law of other countries if the case is governed by foreign law though, right?  I don't understand what the debate is there.  Nobody thinks that a US case between US litigants would be decided Brazilian law.  I'm sure you're misrepresenting Harold Koh's views.
I think you have me confused with someone else. I never mentioned Harold Koh at all.

OK.  Nobody thinks that you would decide a legal dispute in the US between US litigants using foreign law.  But clearly, the Supreme Court can use foreign law when there's a foreign legal issue in a case.  I don't understand the dispute. 
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The Mikado
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« Reply #10 on: December 30, 2014, 03:08:55 PM »

Can anyone seriously maintain that if a Justice (any Justice) were to pass over the next two years, the GOP wouldn't just force Obama to leave the seat vacant until the next Administration?
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« Reply #11 on: December 30, 2014, 06:27:32 PM »

Can anyone seriously maintain that if a Justice (any Justice) were to pass over the next two years, the GOP wouldn't just force Obama to leave the seat vacant until the next Administration?

could Obama recess-appoint a Justice to SCOTUS?
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True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)
Ernest
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« Reply #12 on: December 30, 2014, 11:59:34 PM »

Can anyone seriously maintain that if a Justice (any Justice) were to pass over the next two years, the GOP wouldn't just force Obama to leave the seat vacant until the next Administration?

could Obama recess-appoint a Justice to SCOTUS?

Yes, but it would not be a lifetime appointment, only until either the Senate rejected the appointee, or until the end of the term.  Washington himself used the recess appointment power to appoint a Chief Justice while the Senate was in recess, and the Senate rejected his nominee when they returned.  The last president to make recess appointments to the Court was Eisenhower, who did so three times, including for Chief Justice Warren, altho all three of his appointments were confirmed later by the Senate.

However, this assumes the Congress will ever be out of session long enough to permit Obama to make a recess appointment.  I really don't see that happening.  However, the Democrats could if they wished interfere with the holding of pro forma sessions by making quorum calls and compelling the other members to show up.
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politicallefty
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« Reply #13 on: January 01, 2015, 01:25:23 PM »

Can anyone seriously maintain that if a Justice (any Justice) were to pass over the next two years, the GOP wouldn't just force Obama to leave the seat vacant until the next Administration?

I think it's very unlikely that any vacancy on SCOTUS would be filled from now on under President Obama. The only possible chance I could see is having some person nominated with massive critical acclaim (most likely, nominating someone like a current US Senator).
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The Mikado
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« Reply #14 on: January 01, 2015, 02:34:06 PM »

Can anyone seriously maintain that if a Justice (any Justice) were to pass over the next two years, the GOP wouldn't just force Obama to leave the seat vacant until the next Administration?

I think it's very unlikely that any vacancy on SCOTUS would be filled from now on under President Obama. The only possible chance I could see is having some person nominated with massive critical acclaim (most likely, nominating someone like a current US Senator).

Possibly a Dem Senator in a state with a GOP governor who could pick a replacement, but it'd also need to be a Dem senator with unquestioned legal credibility and authority and I can't think of anyone who meets that standard.

Maybe a Dem governor with a GOP Lt. Governor, if such a creature still exists? I think you're on the right track that McConnell will only allow this to move forward if the GOP gets something.
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« Reply #15 on: January 01, 2015, 03:13:18 PM »

Can anyone seriously maintain that if a Justice (any Justice) were to pass over the next two years, the GOP wouldn't just force Obama to leave the seat vacant until the next Administration?

could Obama recess-appoint a Justice to SCOTUS?

Yes, but it would not be a lifetime appointment, only until either the Senate rejected the appointee, or until the end of the term.  Washington himself used the recess appointment power to appoint a Chief Justice while the Senate was in recess, and the Senate rejected his nominee when they returned.  The last president to make recess appointments to the Court was Eisenhower, who did so three times, including for Chief Justice Warren, altho all three of his appointments were confirmed later by the Senate.

However, this assumes the Congress will ever be out of session long enough to permit Obama to make a recess appointment.  I really don't see that happening.  However, the Democrats could if they wished interfere with the holding of pro forma sessions by making quorum calls and compelling the other members to show up.

How long could a recess apointee last? I remember John Bolton serving as the UN Ambassador for well over a year and never being confirmed.
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True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)
Ernest
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« Reply #16 on: January 01, 2015, 11:09:20 PM »

How long could a recess appointee last? I remember John Bolton serving as the UN Ambassador for well over a year and never being confirmed.
If not acted upon, a recess appointment lasts until the end of the next session, so at most two years, if one were to be appointed early in a session.
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Ray Goldfield
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« Reply #17 on: January 02, 2015, 09:22:05 PM »

Can anyone seriously maintain that if a Justice (any Justice) were to pass over the next two years, the GOP wouldn't just force Obama to leave the seat vacant until the next Administration?

I think the GOP knows that to raise a stink over an equally liberal replacement for a very liberal justice would just make them look like petulant children, and they probably learned their lesson after the shutdown.

There's likely going to be the votes from the moderate wing of the party to allow a reasonable choice through.
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badgate
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« Reply #18 on: January 04, 2015, 04:00:00 PM »
« Edited: January 04, 2015, 04:02:28 PM by badgate »

Are there any African-American or Asian-American female judges that President Obama can nominate to replace her that can be confirmed by a Republican Senate?

There's been talk about Kamala Harris if she doesn't go into the Senate. I'm not sure if she would be confirmed or not.

Leah Ward Sears was one of the runners-up for Obama's first appointment to the court.


Personally I would love Debo Adegbile, or Ken Thompson (Brooklyn DA) on the court, but I'd also like Ginsburg's replacement to be a woman. If only Hilda Solis was a lawyer...
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bedstuy
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« Reply #19 on: January 04, 2015, 08:31:08 PM »

Are there any African-American or Asian-American female judges that President Obama can nominate to replace her that can be confirmed by a Republican Senate?

There's been talk about Kamala Harris if she doesn't go into the Senate. I'm not sure if she would be confirmed or not.

Leah Ward Sears was one of the runners-up for Obama's first appointment to the court.


Personally I would love Debo Adegbile, or Ken Thompson (Brooklyn DA) on the court, but I'd also like Ginsburg's replacement to be a woman. If only Hilda Solis was a lawyer...

Are you serious? 
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« Reply #20 on: January 07, 2015, 09:48:46 AM »

Isn't Thompson the guy who completely ignored sexual abuse cases in the Hasidic community?
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bedstuy
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« Reply #21 on: January 07, 2015, 11:56:03 AM »

Isn't Thompson the guy who completely ignored sexual abuse cases in the Hasidic community?

That was the guy he replaced, Charles Hynes.  Ken Thompson is a good guy.  He's just not on the Supreme Court Justice career path. 
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Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas
Ray Goldfield
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« Reply #22 on: January 07, 2015, 05:25:18 PM »

Isn't Thompson the guy who completely ignored sexual abuse cases in the Hasidic community?

He just took over this past year from the guy you're thinking about, Charles Hynes.
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« Reply #23 on: January 16, 2015, 01:20:15 AM »

The most likely choices under a Republican Senate are either Senators as they are usually confirmed by their colleagues or a cabinet secretary as they have already been approved by many of the current senators (though, of course, not to the Supreme Court)

30 of the 46 Democratic Senators (including Bernie Sanders and Angus King) have law degrees, but only 19 were practicing law when they got elected to their first office.  Of those 19, most are either too old or too liberal to be approved by a Republican Senate.

I would think these 3 senators would be 'moderate'  enough to be approved
1.Amy Klobuchar, Minnesota, former Hennepin County Attorney 85% ADA in 2013 4% ACU
2.Kirsten Gillibrand, New York, 90% ADA, 0% ACU (but she was more conservative in the House)
3.Tim Kaine, Virginia, 85% ADA, 0% ACU

Cabinet Secretaries
1.Thomas Perez, Maryland, Secretary of Labor, Former Assistant (or Deputy) Attorney General for Civil Rights
2.Jeh Johnson, Secretary of Homeland Security, former Department of Defense council

Former Cabinet Secretary
1.Janet Napolitano, formerly of Arizona,  former Secretary of Homeland Security,  Former Arizona Attorney General and Governor

I could also see the Republicans allowing an essentially temporary appointment to the Supreme Court (as long as they replace a 'liberal' Justice)  by a liberal Senator who is in his 70s.
1.Richard Durbin, Illinois
2.Ben Cardin, Maryland
3.Pat Leahy, Vermont
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True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)
Ernest
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« Reply #24 on: January 16, 2015, 02:29:01 AM »

30 of the 46 Democratic Senators (including Bernie Sanders and Angus King) have law degrees, but only 19 were practicing law when they got elected to their first office.  Of those 19, most are either too old or too liberal to be approved by a Republican Senate.

I would think these 3 senators would be 'moderate'  enough to be approved
1.Amy Klobuchar, Minnesota, former Hennepin County Attorney 85% ADA in 2013 4% ACU
2.Kirsten Gillibrand, New York, 90% ADA, 0% ACU (but she was more conservative in the House)
3.Tim Kaine, Virginia, 85% ADA, 0% ACU

Cabinet Secretaries
1.Thomas Perez, Maryland, Secretary of Labor, Former Assistant (or Deputy) Attorney General for Civil Rights
2.Jeh Johnson, Secretary of Homeland Security, former Department of Defense council

Former Cabinet Secretary
1.Janet Napolitano, formerly of Arizona,  former Secretary of Homeland Security,  Former Arizona Attorney General and Governor

I could also see the Republicans allowing an essentially temporary appointment to the Supreme Court (as long as they replace a 'liberal' Justice)  by a liberal Senator who is in his 70s.
1.Richard Durbin, Illinois
2.Ben Cardin, Maryland
3.Pat Leahy, Vermont


Yeah, the GOP won't mind if Obama appoints an old guy that would give them a chance to fill the seat themselves in a few years.  The older the nominee is, the easier it will be to get them approved.
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