Can anyone seriously maintain that if a Justice (any Justice) were to pass over the next two years, the GOP wouldn't just force Obama to leave the seat vacant until the next Administration?
I think it's very unlikely that any vacancy on SCOTUS would be filled from now on under President Obama. The only possible chance I could see is having some person nominated with massive critical acclaim (most likely, nominating someone like a current US Senator).
Possibly a Dem Senator in a state with a GOP governor who could pick a replacement, but it'd also need to be a Dem senator with unquestioned legal credibility and authority and I can't think of anyone who meets that standard.
Maybe a Dem governor with a GOP Lt. Governor, if such a creature still exists? I think you're on the right track that McConnell will only allow this to move forward if the GOP gets something.
