The Redefining: 2016-?

[rpryor03]

redefine: verb, define again or differently.

Cassidy Defeats Landrieu In Runoff, Republicans Get 54
Rep. Bill Cassidy: 60%
Sen. Mary Landrieu: 40%


Enzi Pulls Rank on Sessions, Gets Budget Chairmanship


Ryan, Van Hollen Compromise on Budget, Enzi and Murray Go Along


Carter: No Boots on the Ground Against ISIL


First Three Candidates In

Next Time: Will Hillary Run?

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

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Who is the guy in the middle? I can't place a name for some reason.

[Enderman]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Who is the guy in the middle? I can't place a name for some reason.

I think its a floor-view of Martin O'Malley. I somewhat recognize the teeth filled smile from other timelines. If it's not, I'd be surprised.

Anyways great timeline RPryor!

[rpryor03]

Yeah, it's Marty O'Malley.

[rpryor03]

Rand Paul: I Will Not Run for President


Texas is Represented: Cruz and Perry to Join


Mike Huckabee Throws His Hat In


Dr. Ben Carson and Gov Scott Walker Enter the Fray


Governor John Kasich to Run, As Well


Governor Brian Schweitzer To Run!


Inevitable: Hillary Clinton's In!

Republican Party Polling, October 2015
Governor Chris Christie: 18.4%
Governor Mike Huckabee: 17.8%
Senator Ted Cruz: 14.9%
Governor Rick Perry: 9.6%
Dr. Ben Carson: 9.4%
Governor Scott Walker: 6.5%
Governor John Kasich: 3.5%
Undecided: 20%

Democratic Party Polling, October 2015
Secretary of State Hillary Clinton: 70.6%
Senator Bernie Sanders: 4.5%
Senator Jim Webb: 2.2%
Governor Martin O'Malley: 1.5%
Governor Brian Schweitzer: 1.2%
Undecided: 20%

General Election Polling, October 2015
Republican Party: 40.1%
Democratic Party: 39.9%
Undecided: 20%

[rpryor03]

October-December 2015


Republican Debate, October: Who Won?
Sen. Ted Cruz: 26%
Gov. Chris Christie: 20%
Gov. Scott Walker: 17%
Dr. Ben Carson: 15%
Gov. Mike Huckabee: 13%
Gov. John Kasich: 7%
Gov. Rick Perry:  2%

Democratic Debate, October: Who Won?
Gov. Martin O'Malley: 32%
Sen. Jim Webb: 21%
Gov. Brian Schweitzer: 21%
Sen. Bernie Sanders: 16%
Sen. Hillary Clinton: 11%


Obama, Carter, and Biden Endorse Clinton


Leak From the Governor's Office: More Bridgegate Accusations Appear


In GOP Debate, Kasich Kills Christie


GOP Debate, November: Who Won?
Gov. John Kasich: 75%
Gov. Scott Walker: 9%
Dr. Ben Carson: 7%
Sen. Ted Cruz: 5%
Gov. Mike Huckabee: 3%
Gov. Rick Perry: 1%
Gov. Chris Christie: 0%

DEM Debate, November: Who Won?
Gov. Martin O'Malley: 32%
Gov. Brian Schweitzer: 26%
Sen. Hillary Clinton: 18%
Sen. Jim Webb: 15%
Sen. Bernie Sanders: 9%

December 2015 Republican Primary Polling
Gov. John Kasich: 18%
Gov. Mike Huckabee: 18%
Sen. Ted Cruz: 16%
Gov. Rick Perry: 9%
Dr. Ben Carson: 9%
Gov. Scott Walker: 9%
Gov. Chris Christie: 9%
Undecided/Other: 12%

December 2015 Democratic Primary Polling
Sen. Hillary Clinton: 68%
Gov. Martin O'Malley: 5%
Sen. Bernie Sanders: 3%
Sen. Jim Webb: 2%
Gov. Brian Schweitzer: 2%
Undecided: 20%

December 2015 General Election Polling
Generic Republican: 42%
Generic Democrat: 42%
Undecided: 16%

[rpryor03]

Jan-Feb Primaries


Iowa
Gov. Mike Huckabee wins with 29% of the vote! (28 Delegates)


Iowa
Hillary wins with over 50% of the vote! (57 Delegates)


New Hampshire
John Kasich wins with 20% of the vote! (12 Delegates)


New Hampshire
Hillary wins with over 50% of the vote! 30 Delegates)


South Carolina
Gov. Mike Huckabee wins with 22% of the vote! (25 Delegates)


South Carolina
Hillary wins with over 50% of the vote! (54 Delegates)


Florida
Ted Cruz wins with 21% of the vote! (50 Delegates)


Michigan
Gov. Mike Huckabee wins with 19% of the vote! (10 Delegates for Huckabee, 10 Delegates for Kasich, 7 Delegates for Cruz, 3 Delegates for Walker)


Nevada
Hillary wins with over 50% of the vote! (34 Delegates)


DEM Super Tuesday I
Hillary wins with over 50% of the vote! (500 Delegates for Clinton, 25 Delegates for O'Malley, 10 Delegates for Webb, 5 Delegates for Sanders)

GOP Western Tuesday I
Kasich, Huckabee and Cruz tie with 25% of the vote! (99 Delegates for Kasich, 90 Delegates for Cruz, 28 Delegates for Huckabee)


DEM Southern Tuesday I
Hillary wins with over 50% of the vote! (428 Delegates for Clinton, 54 Delegates for O'Malley, 27 Delegates for Webb, 15 Delegates for Schweitzer, 11 Delegates for Sanders)

GOP Northeastern Tuesday
Christie, Kasich, and Huckabee tie with 20% of the vote! (130 Delegates for Kasich, 44 Delegates for Christie, 24 Delegates for Huckabee)


DEM Super Tuesday II
Hillary wins with over 50% of the vote! (168 Delegates for Clinton, 48 Delegates for Schweitzer, 19 Delegates for Webb, 9 Delegates for O'Malley, 8 Delegates for Sanders)

Republican Primary Delegate Count (1,121 Delegates Needed)
Governor John Kasich: 251
Senator Ted Cruz: 147
Governor Mike Huckabee: 115
Governor Chris Christie: 44
Governor Scott Walker: 3

Democratic Primary Delegate Count (2,202 Delegates Needed)
Senator Hillary Clinton: 1271
Governor Martin O'Malley: 88
Governor Brian Schweitzer: 63
Senator Jim Webb: 56
Senator Bernie Sanders: 24

Bernie Sanders withdraws, endorses Governor O'Malley. Governors Walker and Christie withdraw, endorse Governor Kasich. Dr. Carson and Gov. Perry withdraw, endorse Sen. Cruz

March 2016 Republican Primary Polling
Gov. John Kasich: 36%
Sen. Ted Cruz: 34%
Gov. Mike Huckabee: 30%

March 2016 Democratic Primary Polling
Sen. Hillary Clinton: 80%
Gov. Martin O'Malley: 8%
Sen. Jim Webb: 2%
Gov. Brian Schweitzer: 2%
Undecided: 8%

[rpryor03]

March-April Primaries


Southern Tuesday I
Mike Huckabee wins with over 50% of the vote! (118 for Huckabee, 68 for Kasich, 39 for Cruz)


New England Tuesday
Hillary Clinton wins with 30% of the vote! (129 for Clinton, 81 for O'Malley, 40 for Schweitzer, 20 for Webb)


GOP Potomac Tuesday
John Kasich wins with over 50% of the vote! (62 for Kasich, 32 for Huckabee, 11 for Cruz)


DEM Potomac Tuesday
Hillary Clinton wins with over 50% of the vote! (131 for Clinton, 66 for O'Malley, 65 for Webb)


Midwestern Tuesday
John Kasich wins with over 50% of the vote! (180 for Kasich, 44 for Huckabee, 15 for Cruz)

End of March Delegate Count, GOP (1,121 Needed)
John Kasich: 608
Mike Huckabee: 309
Ted Cruz: 212

End of March Delegate Count, DEM (2,202 Needed)
Hillary Clinton: 1,523
Martin O'Malley: 259
Jim Webb: 141
Brian Schweitzer: 103

Ted Cruz endorses Mike Huckabee, Brian Schweitzer and Jim Webb endorse Martin O'Malley


GOP Mega Tuesday
John Kasich wins with over 50% of the vote! (386 for Kasich, 155 for Huckabee)


DEM Mega Tuesday
Hillary Clinton wins with over 50% of the vote! (1134 for Clinton, 378 for O'Malley)

HILLARY CLINTON IS THE PRESUMPTIVE NOMINEE!!  O'Malley withdraws and endorses Clinton


Southern Tuesday II
Mike Huckabee wins with over 50% of the vote! (214 for Huckabee)


Western Tuesday II
Mike Huckabee wins with over 50% of the vote! (185 for Huckabee, 18 for Kasich)


Hail Mary Tuesday
John Kasich wins with over 50% of the vote! (104 for Kasich, 35 for Huckabee)

End of May Delegate Count, GOP (1,121 Needed)
John Kasich: 1,283
Mike Huckabee: 1,120

2016 General Election: Hillary Clinton v. John Kasich

[Senator Cris]

Go Kasich!

[rpryor03]

The Republican National Convention
July 27-29, 2016; Cleveland, OH




Keynote Speaker: Senator Rand Paul (KY)


Vice-Presidential Nominee: Senator Dean Heller (NV)


Presidential Nominee: Governor John Kasich (OH)

----------------------------------

The Democratic National Convention
August 2-5, 2016; New York City, NY




Keynote Speaker: Senator Cory Booker (NJ)


Vice Presidential Nominee: Governor Deval Patrick (MA)


Presidential Nominee: Senator Hillary Clinton (NY)

[rpryor03]

2015 Elections

Kentucky Gubernatorial Election
James Comer (R): 51%
Jack Conway (D): 49%

Louisiana Gubernatorial Election, Runoff
David Vitter (R): 64%
Mitch Landrieu (D): 46%

Mississippi
Phil Bryant (R): 60%
Brandon Presley: 40%

2015 UK General Election
Labour Party: 295
Conservative Party: 265
Scottish National Party: 50
Liberal Democratic Party: 14
Democratic Unionist Party: 8
Sinn Fein: 5
UKIP: 4
Plaid Cymru: 3
SDLP: 3
Alliance Party: 1
Respect Party: 1
National Health Action Party: 1

LABOUR SUPPLY AND CONFIDENCE WITH LIB DEM, PC, SDLP, ALLIANCE, RESPECT, and NHAP.

[rpryor03]

September-October 2016


Patrick and Clinton defeat Heller and Kasich in Debates

Dead Heat in Last Polls

-----------------------------------------------------------
2016 Senate Elections

Alabama: Richard Shelby (I-R) v Bobby Bright (D) - Shelby, unlike Jeff Sessions, has drawn a challenger, but can Bright pull off the unthinkable?
Alaska: Lisa Murkowski (I-R) v Mark Begich (D) - Senator Mark Begich comes back to challenge well-liked Lisa Murkowski.
Arizona: David Schweikert (R) v Mark Kelly (D) - John McCain having been primaried by Schweikert, is out of a job in January. Will Schweikert be his successor, or will it be Gabby Giffords' astronaut husband Mark Kelly?
Arkansas: John Boozman (I-R) v Mike Beebe (D) - With polling at a dead heat, will Governor Beebe ride the Clinton coattails to victory?
California - Ashley Swearingin (R) v Kamala Harris (D) - With Barbara Boxer out of office, will her successor be the progressive Attorney General of the State, or will it be conservative Mayor of Fresno?
Colorado - Gale Norton (R) v Michael Bennet (I-D) - With his former counterpart having been removed in the 2014 Republican wave, will Michael Bennet survive, or will the former Secretary of the Interior for President Bush 43 reclaim Colorado as a Republican state?
Connecticut - David Walker (R) v Richard Blumenthal (I-D) - Can Richard Blumenthal retain his seat, or will former Comptroller General David Walker take over?
Florida - Marco Rubio (I-R) v Alex Sink (D) - Having declined a run for the Presidency, Senator Marco Rubio faces failed candidate Alex Sink, in a testimony to the weak bench of the Florida Democratic Party.
Georgia - Johnny Isakson (I-R) v Stacey Abrams (D) - The conservative Senator is challenged by the much younger and well known State Senate Minority Leader Stacey Abrams.
Hawaii - Campbell Cavasso (R) v Brian Schatz (I-D) - If we want to talk about weak benches, one of the weakest has to be the Hawaii Republicans, with Cavasso running again in a 2014 rematch.
Idaho - Mike Crapo (I-R) v Nels Mitchell (D) - See Hawaii, replace Hawaii with Idaho, Republicans with Democrats, and Cavasso with Mitchell.
Illinois - Mark Kirk (I-R) v Sheila Simon (D) - A true tossup, a moderate Senator faces against the Lt. Governor.
Indiana - Dan Coats (I-R) v Jonathan Weinzapfel (D) - The three non-consecutive terms, one consecutive term Senator faces off against the Evansville Mayor.
Iowa - Chuck Grassley (I-R) v Chet Culver (D) - In his toughest match ever, Governor Chet Culver returns to challenge Senator Chuck Grassley.
Kansas - Jerry Moran (I-R) v Nancy Boyda (D) - In a state that almost ousted its Republican Governor and Senator in the 2014 wave, can Nancy Boyda, in a more friendly environment, oust Senator Moran?
Kentucky - Rand Paul (I-R) v Crit Luallen (D) - Luallen, someone thought to take a stab at the 2015 Gubernatorial Election, is challenging Senator Paul.
Louisiana - Charles Boustany (I-R) v Katrina Jackson (D) - The former Representative, appointed by Governor Vitter, faces off in his first General Election with Katrina Jackson as his main competition. Can he win without a runoff?
Maryland - Ben Carson (R) v Barbara Mikulski (I-D) - In a move to get him out of the race, Ben Carson was chosen to run for Senate.
Missouri - Roy Blunt (I-R) v Mike Sanders (D) - The relatively unpopular Senator Blunt faces off against County Executive Sanders in a fight for his political life.
Nevada - Brian Sandoval (R) v Harry Reid (I-D) - In the move that Republicans hoped for, Governor Sandoval challenges Minority Leader Harry Reid after defeating his son in 2010.
New Hampshire - Kelly Ayotte (I-R) v Maggie Hassan - Governor Hassan challenges Senator Ayotte in a battle of the titans.
New York - Chuck Schumer (I-D) is unopposed.
North Carolina - Richard Burry (I-R) v Kay Hagan (D) - Former colleagues face off against each other.
North Dakota - John Hoeven (I-R) is unopposed.
Ohio - Rob Portman (I-R) v Connie Pillich (D) - Fearing Kasich's coattails, Connie Pillich is the only person brave enough to try to beat the popular Senator.
Oklahoma - James Lankford (I-R) v Constance Johnson (D) - 2014 Rematch. Nothing new to see here.
Oregon - Ron Wyden (I-D) is unopposed.
Pennsylvania - Pat Toomey (I-R) v Joe Sestak - In a rematch of 2010, this is a pure tossup.
South Carolina - Tim Scott (I-R) is unopposed.
South Dakota - John Thune (I-R) v Brendan Johnson (D) - Thune faces only token opposition.
Utah - Josh Romney (R) v Jim Matheson (D) - The Romney Family primaried Lee out of office, and now they face off against former Congressman Jim Matheson.
Vermont - Patrick Leahy (I-D) is unopposed.
Washington - Patty Murray (I-D) is unopposed.
Wisconsin - Ron Johnson (I-R) v Russ Feingold (D) - In another 2010 rematch, the environment is much more favorable to Feingold than 2010. Can he take back his seat?

[rpryor03]

Election Night, 2016

7:00 Projections
Georgia: John Kasich (R)
Indiana: John Kasich (R)
Kentucky: John Kasich (R)
South Carolina: John Kasich (R)
Vermont: Hillary Clinton (R)
Virginia: Too Close To Call
South Carolina Senate: Tim Scott (I-R)
Vermont Senate: Patrick Leahy (I-D)
Georgia Senate: Too Close To Call
Indiana Senate: Too Close To Call
Kentucky Senate: Too Close To Call
Indiana Governor: Too Close To Call
Vermont Governor: Too Close To Call

John Kasich/Dean Heller: 44 Electoral Votes
Hillary Clinton/Deval Patrick: 3 Electoral Votes
Too Close To Call: 13 Electoral Votes

Republican Party: 31 Seats
Democratic Party: 35 Seats
Too Close To Call: 3 Seats

I will hopefully try to update this in real time, so stay tuned!

[rpryor03]

7:30 Projections
North Carolina: Too Close To Call
Ohio: Too Close To Call
West Virginia: John Kasich (R)
North Carolina Senate: Too Close To Call
Ohio Senate: Too Close To Call
North Carolina Governor: Too Close To Call
West Virginia Governor: Too Close To Call

Previously Uncalled Races
Virginia: John Kasich (R)
Georgia Senate: Johnny Isakson (I-R)

John Kasich/Dean Heller: 62 Electoral Votes
Hillary Clinton/Deval Patrick: 3 Electoral Votes
Too Close To Call: 33 Electoral Votes

Republican Party: 32 Seats
Democratic Party: 35 Seats
Too Close To Call: 4 Seats

[rpryor03]

8:00 Projections
Alabama: John Kasich (R)
Connecticut: Hillary Clinton (D)
Delaware: Hillary Clinton (D)
District of Columbia: Hillary Clinton (D)
Florida: Too Close To Call
Illinois: Hillary Clinton (D)
Maine: Too Close To Call
Maryland: Hillary Clinton (D)
Massachusetts: Hillary Clinton (D)
Mississippi: John Kasich (R)
Missouri: Too Close To Call
New Hampshire: Too Close To Call
New Jersey: Hillary Clinton (D)
Oklahoma: John Kasich (R)
Pennsylvania: Too Close TO Call
Rhode Island: Hillary Clinton (D)
Tennessee: John Kasich (R)
Alabama Senate: Richard Shelby (I-R)
Connecticut Senate: Richard Blumenthal (I-D)
Florida Senate: Too Close To Call
Illinois Senate: Too Close To Call
Maryland Senate: Barbara Mikulski (I-D)
Missouri Senate: Too Close To Call
New Hampshire Senate: Too Close To Call
Oklahoma Senate: James Lankford (I-R)
Pennsylvania Senate: Too Close To Call
Delaware Governor: Beau Biden (D)
Missouri Governor: Too Close To Call
New Hampshire Governor:  Too Close To Call

Previously Uncalled Races
Indiana Senate: Dan Coats (I-R)
Kentucky Senate: Rand Paul (I-R)

John Kasich/Dean Heller: 89 Electoral Votes
Hillary Clinton/Deval Patrick: 81 Electoral Votes
Too Close To Call: 100 Electoral Votes

Republican Party: 36 Seats
Democratic Party: 37 Seats
Too Close To Call: 9 Seats

[rpryor03]

8:30 Projections
Arkansas: Too Close To Call
Arkansas Senate: Too Close To Call

Previously Uncalled Races
Florida: John Kasich (R)
Maine: Hillary Clinton (D)
Missouri: John Kasich (R)
Ohio: John Kasich (R)
Ohio Senate: Rob Portman (I-R)
West Virginia Governor: Patrick Morrisey (R) +1

John Kasich/Dean Heller: 146 Electoral Votes
Hillary Clinton/Deval Patrick: 85 Electoral Votes
Too Close To Call: 39 Electoral Votes

Republican Party: 37 Seats
Democratic Party: 37 Seats
Too Close To Call: 7 Seats

[Enderman]

Uh, MS is showing as Democratic,  when IIRC it was given to Kasich :-/

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

Go Kasich! Also, great work you've put into this timeline, notably with the Senate results.

[rpryor03]

9:00 Poll Closings
Arizona:
Colorado:
Kansas: John Kasich (R)
Louisiana: John Kasich (R)
Michigan:
Minnesota:
Nebraska: John Kasich (R)
New Mexico:
New York: Hillary Clinton (D)
South Dakota: John Kasich (R)
Texas: John Kasich (R)
Wisconsin:
Wyoming: John Kasich (R)
Arizona Senate: Too Close To Call
Colorado Senate: Too Close To Call
Kansas Senate: Jerry Moran (I-R)
Louisiana Senate: Charles Boustany (I-R)
New York Senate: Chuck Schumer (I-D)
South Dakota Senate: John Thune (I-R)
Wisconsin Senate: Too Close To Call

Previously Uncalled Races
New Hampshire: John Kasich (R)
Florida Senate: Marco Rubio (I-R)
Missouri Senate: Roy Blunt (I-R)
New Hampshire Senate: Kelly Ayotte (I-R)
Missouri Governor: Chris Koster (R) +1
New Hampshire Governor: Carol Shea-Porter (D)

John Kasich/Dean Heller: 219 Electoral Votes
Hillary Clinton/Deval Patrick: 108 Electoral Votes
Too Close To Call: 102 Electoral Votes

Republican Party: 43 Seats
Democratic Party: 38 Seats
Too Close To Call: 7 Seats

[rpryor03]

9:30 Poll Closings
None!

Previously Uncalled Races
Arizona: John Kasich (R)
Colorado: John Kasich (R)
Pennsylvania: John Kasich (R)
Pennsylvania Senate: Pat Toomey (I-R)
Wisconsin Senate: Russ Feingold (D) +1

John Kasich/Dean Heller: 259 Electoral Votes
Hillary Clinton/Deval Patrick: 108 Electoral Votes
Too Close To Call: 62 Electoral Votes

Republican Party: 44 Seats
Democratic Party: 39 Seats
Too Close To Call: 5 Seats

[rpryor03]

10:00 Poll Closings
Iowa: Too Close To Call
Montana: John Kasich (R)
Nevada: Too Close To Call
Utah: John Kasich (R)
Iowa Senate: Too Close To Call
Nevada Senate: Too Close To Call
Utah Senate: Josh Romney (R)
Utah Governor: Gary Herbert (I-R)

Previously Uncalled Races
Arkansas: Hillary Clinton (D)
Michigan: John Kasich (R)
Minnesota: Hillary Clinton (D)
North Carolina: John Kasich (R)
New Mexico: John Kasich (R)
Wisconsin: Hillary Clinton (D)
Arkansas Senate: Mike Beebe (D) +1
Arizona Senate: David Schweikert (R)
Colorado Senate: Gale Norton (R) +1
Illinois Senate: Sheila Simon (D) +1
North Carolina Senate: Richard Burr (I-R)
Montana Governor: Steve Bullock (I-D)
North Carolina Governor: Pat McCrory (I-R)
Vermont Governor: No One Reaches 50%, To Go Before Legislature

John Kasich/Dean Heller: 304 Electoral Votes
Hillary Clinton/Deval Patrick: 134 Electoral Votes
Too Close To Call: 12 Electoral Votes

JOHN KASICH AND DEAN HELLER ARE ELECTED AS PRESIDENT AND VICE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA!

Republican Party: 48 Seats
Democratic Party: 41 Seats
Too Close To Call: 2 Seats

THE REPUBLICAN PARTY HOLDS THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES

[/b]

Thank you all for being here with me for this live blog election. I'll have final maps up tomorrow, including the party that will hold the Senate!

[Free Bird]

Besides Arkansas which is too far red now, and possibly switching Michigan and Wisconsin, this is all I could ever ask for in 2016!

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

How did Kasich win MI and PA, while losing WI and MN?

[rpryor03]

John Kasich/Dean Heller: 326 Electoral Votes, 50.52%
Hillary Clinton/Deval Patrick: 212 Electoral Votes, 48.19%
Gary Johnson/Jesse Ventura: 0 Electoral Votes, 0.93%
Jill Stein/Cheri Honkala: 0 Electoral Votes, 0.35%

Republican Party: 54 Seats
Democratic Party: 46 Seats (Inc. 2 Independents)

Republican Party: 33 Governorships
Democratic Party: 15 Governorships
Bill Walker: 1 Governorship
To Be Decided: 1 Governorship

[Free Bird]

Why did Boozman lose?