Is Donnelly really set to lose in 2018?

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

I've seen people dismiss his chances at holding on in 2018. I don't really see why he'd have no chance, given that IN has taken to moderate Dems before, even during strong Republican years (Bayh 2004). Is there a Republican likely to run that's favored to beat him? If not, why is he destined to lose?

[PAK Man]

I think people assume that because a) Indiana tends to vote Republican in most elections and b) one of the major factors of his victory was the fact his opponent was Richard Mourdock. Personally, I don't think people should be so quick to judge. Just because a state tends to vote Republican doesn't mean they always vote Republican, the same way that just because a state votes Democratic doesn't mean a Democrat will always win.

It's way too early to even begin looking at his race, but at this point I consider it a Tossup.

[publicunofficial]

He's not toast, but it's hard to see him surviving a bad mid-term. He could survive a neutral mid-term, but we haven't had one of those in over a decade.

I think he's less safe than Tester, but more safe than McCaskill.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Richard Mourdock would have come within 2-3 points of winning without the libertarian being in that race. Even with the libertarian, he only lost by 6. Provided the republicans nominate someone competent, Donnelly is likely toast. Of course, it's too far out to say anything for certain.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

It's still way too early to say, but I'm leaning no.

Indiana likes moderate Dems, and doesn't throw incumbent Senators to the curb much in general elections. Seats tend to flip if the incumbent gets primaried or retires.

Of course, if a Democrat is President, they could have horrible midterms (a recession could happen around 2018, for example) and he could get swept away, and conversely if a Republican is President he could win big.

The only candidates I can think of off the top of my head that would challenge him are Kelly Mitchell (state treasurer), Sue Ellspermann (Lieutenant Governor), Todd Young (current Representative), Luke Messer (another Rep), and maybe Dwayne Sawyer, but it's still way too early to tell.

[Mister Mets]

He might do well.

It's very unlikely for incumbents to lose in midterm elections in which the other party holds the White House.

That has not happened in 2006, 2010 or 2014.

[windjammer]

Donnelly is the perfect fit for his state.

But if this is a republican wave: RIP.
A neutral year, I would consider this race as Lean Dem.

[Maxwell]

He's an accidental Senator, so I don't think he can be guaranteed incumbency advantage. The right Republican beats him easily, the wrong Republican would still put up a fight.

[I Will Not Be Wrong]

Donnelly is the perfect fit for his state.

But if this is a republican wave: RIP.
A neutral year, I would consider this race as Lean Dem.

I agree with this.

[tmthforu94]

Donnelly is not a terrific campaigner - the stars aligned for him to win in 2012.

If Hillary is President, he's almost certain to lose as Republicans will be sure to line up a strong candidate - and they have quite a bench. If a Republican is elected I would rate it as even, though I still think the Republican would ultimately prevail.

[Vega]

Yes. Yes he is.

[IceSpear]

He'd probably start as an underdog, but he could still win. Indiana isn't Arkansas.

[Free Bird]

Would Loogie be too old to get his seat back?

[Keystone Phil]

Would Loogie be too old to get his seat back?

Of course but could you imagine Coats and Lugar representing the state in second "stints?" Would that be the first time in history that happened: two Senators representing the same state together again after both had a hiatus?

[Indy Texas]

Would Loogie be too old to get his seat back?

He'd be coming back at age 86, meaning if he did, he'd likely be retiring after that one term. And when you leave your day job at an old age, as he already has, things often go downhill physically and mentally very quickly. I doubt he'd be up to the task of coming back to run a campaign in 2018.

[ElectionsGuy]

He's either set to lose or have one hell of a run against him.

[Free Bird]

Would Loogie be too old to get his seat back?

Of course but could you imagine Coats and Lugar representing the state in second "stints?" Would that be the first time in history that happened: two Senators representing the same state together again after both had a hiatus?

That sort of happened kinda with the 112th

[Devils30]

Too many unknown variables. A strong economy with a popular Clinton might just limit GOP gains to a mere seat or 2 if there's little public discontent. Of course anyone unpopular on the D side would be a problem. If there's an unpopular R then he can win by 20 points.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Donnelly has been rather lucky. I mean he got into the House because his 2006 opponent was Chis Chocola (later C4G President) running in a bad year. He barely held on against another rather Conservative candidate in 2010 (Walorski) and had his seat gerrymandered, so his Senate run was a desperate hail marry pass that connected because the other side wasn't on the ball candidate wise. In order words, Donnelly has never really faced a tough candidate (And the IN GOP Has plenty) in an even year, always heavily conservative candidates and most always in Dem leaning elections.

Its IN and the Republicans are not going to let the opportunity go to waste, particularly if they lose seats in 2016 and want to rebuild their padding from 2014. He is also not Bayh, so likely it will be a solid GOP candidate with a hell of a lot of money backing them up.

[Mehmentum]

Another related question is the following. What are the odds President Hillary Clinton is faced with a Republican super majority in the Senate from January 2019 until January 2021? And beyond that a President Hillary Clinton being on the ticket in 2020 probably helps Gardner and Tillis because Colorado and North Carolina just as two examples are not her strongest states. Mark Warner may well loose in 2020 with a President Hillary Clinton running for reelection.

If Warner couldn't be wiped out by a midterm GOP wave, how the hell could he be beaten with Presidential turnout?  That makes no sense at all.

[Free Bird]

Another related question is the following. What are the odds President Hillary Clinton is faced with a Republican super majority in the Senate from January 2019 until January 2021? And beyond that a President Hillary Clinton being on the ticket in 2020 probably helps Gardner and Tillis because Colorado and North Carolina just as two examples are not her strongest states. Mark Warner may well loose in 2020 with a President Hillary Clinton running for reelection.

If Warner couldn't be wiped out by a midterm GOP wave, how the hell could he be beaten with Presidential turnout?  That makes no sense at all.

Warner won this time because ads were aborted and not that much money was given after a point. With the slightest bit more force, he would have gone down

[Mehmentum]

Another related question is the following. What are the odds President Hillary Clinton is faced with a Republican super majority in the Senate from January 2019 until January 2021? And beyond that a President Hillary Clinton being on the ticket in 2020 probably helps Gardner and Tillis because Colorado and North Carolina just as two examples are not her strongest states. Mark Warner may well loose in 2020 with a President Hillary Clinton running for reelection.

If Warner couldn't be wiped out by a midterm GOP wave, how the hell could he be beaten with Presidential turnout?  That makes no sense at all.

Warner won this time because ads were aborted and not that much money was given after a point. With the slightest bit more force, he would have gone down

Not really.  Warner nearly lost because since everyone thought he would win handily, there was basically no interest in the election.  If both sides pumped money into the race, garnering interest from the voters, it would favor Warner.

[Smash255]

Way too early to tell.  A year like 2010 or 2015, he will likely lose barring another Murdoch type candidate, but other than that too early.

Interesting note, Donnelly grew up in the same town I did, Massapequa, NY.

[justfollowingtheelections]

It depends on the political climate.  I actually think the Democrats have a good chance of winning a senate seat in Indiana in '16 as well.  I was looking at the wikipedia page for the election and they seem to have some decent candidates.

[Free Bird]

It depends on the political climate.  I actually think the Democrats have a good chance of winning a senate seat in Indiana in '16 as well.  I was looking at the wikipedia page for the election and they seem to have some decent candidates.

But the incumbent is Dan Coats