Is Donnelly really set to lose in 2018?

[Maxwell]

It depends on the political climate.  I actually think the Democrats have a good chance of winning a senate seat in Indiana in '16 as well.  I was looking at the wikipedia page for the election and they seem to have some decent candidates.

But the incumbent is Dan Coats

Dan Coats is someone who could blow it. The Indiana Republican Party has a large bench and a good bench. If he retires, then it becomes even safer Republican in my mind.

[MadmanMotley]

As a Hoosier, Donnelly isn't completely set up to lose, but Indiana has a good bench of candidates that could easily defeat him, whether a U.S. Representative, or even a state senator. Indiana has a ton of candidates to choose from, the only reason why he won was because Mourdock got tied to Akin, and a good Libertarian showing. Mourdock was a good campaigner (he defeated Lugar for Pete's sake), his gaffe is what lost it for him. I honestly see Marlin Stutzman challenging him in 2018, and if Pence doesn't get the nod for presidential nominee, Pence running for Coats' seat.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Indiana has a ton of candidates to choose from, the only reason why he won was because Mourdock got tied to Akin, and a good Libertarian showing.

Sorry to nitpick, but Donnelly won 50.04%, so the Libertarian candidate is irrelevant for 2012.


But for 2016, it's very possible they could act as a spoiler for either the Senate or Governor's race. 

Does not the use of the word "and" after "Akin," concede already that y did not cause z on its own but that x+y yielded z?

[Mister Mets]

Indiana has a ton of candidates to choose from, the only reason why he won was because Mourdock got tied to Akin, and a good Libertarian showing.

Sorry to nitpick, but Donnelly won 50.04%, so the Libertarian candidate is irrelevant for 2012.


But for 2016, it's very possible they could act as a spoiler for either the Senate or Governor's race. 

Does not the use of the word "and" after "Akin," concede already that y did not cause z on its own but that x+y yielded z?

The 50+% showing suggests that Donnelly would have won without the libertarian.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Indiana has a ton of candidates to choose from, the only reason why he won was because Mourdock got tied to Akin, and a good Libertarian showing.

Sorry to nitpick, but Donnelly won 50.04%, so the Libertarian candidate is irrelevant for 2012.


But for 2016, it's very possible they could act as a spoiler for either the Senate or Governor's race.  

Does not the use of the word "and" after "Akin," concede already that y did not cause z on its own but that x+y yielded z?

The 50+% showing suggests that Donnelly would have won without the libertarian.

Where did the Motley say he lost solely because of the Libertarian? He said he lost because of Todd Akin and the Libertarian. That is arguably correct. Akin effect put Donnelly over 50%, the Libertarian dragged Mourdoch down to 44%.