LA: 2014 Senatorial Open Runoff Election Result
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  LA: 2014 Senatorial Open Runoff Election Result
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Author Topic: LA: 2014 Senatorial Open Runoff Election Result  (Read 3956 times)
Indy Texas
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« Reply #25 on: December 07, 2014, 04:09:56 PM »

And that just leaves us all with a slew of "what if" scenarios if Landrieu hadn't been left to die.

How much money is it worth to have a 53/47 Senate instead of a 54/56 Senate?

Why would rich Democrats in NY and CA want their money to go to re-electing someone whose views on energy and environmental policy are so diametrically opposed to their own?

Better to take the money they didn't spend on Landrieu and save it up to use in Kentucky in 2015 - they'll need all the help they can get.
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Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort
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« Reply #26 on: December 07, 2014, 06:00:05 PM »

And that just leaves us all with a slew of "what if" scenarios if Landrieu hadn't been left to die.

How much money is it worth to have a 53/47 Senate instead of a 54/56 Senate?

Why would rich Democrats in NY and CA want their money to go to re-electing someone whose views on energy and environmental policy are so diametrically opposed to their own?

Better to take the money they didn't spend on Landrieu and save it up to use in Kentucky in 2015 - they'll need all the help they can get.

When Democrats are trying to take back the Senate in 2016, every seat helps. Plus not having a climate denier is loads more helpful than Bill "I'm entitled to this seat" Cassidy.
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Suburbia
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« Reply #27 on: December 07, 2014, 06:33:30 PM »

Landrieu can run for Senate in 2016 if she wanted to.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #28 on: December 07, 2014, 08:48:34 PM »

The seat could not have been held under present conditions and the actual result was not close.
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KCDem
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« Reply #29 on: December 07, 2014, 08:49:32 PM »

The seat could not have been held under present conditions and the actual result was not close.

12% in a racist and misogynist state is close.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #30 on: December 07, 2014, 09:13:17 PM »

The seat could not have been held under present conditions and the actual result was not close.

12% in a racist and misogynist state is close.

Not as an incumbent when you won by 6 in the previous election.
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KCDem
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« Reply #31 on: December 07, 2014, 09:27:49 PM »

The seat could not have been held under present conditions and the actual result was not close.

12% in a racist and misogynist state is close.

Not as an incumbent when you won by 6 in the previous election.

The misogyny and racism hadn't as fully infected the state in 2008.
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #32 on: December 08, 2014, 03:18:55 AM »

At this point, liberals and moderates in the South would be better able to have their views and agendas represented if they just bit the bullet and joined the Republican Party themselves. Better to be a rump faction of the party in power than the be the party out of power and in the wilderness.

+100. One of the ideas i suggested. Post-Obama Democratic label is absolutely toxic in the South, except heavily minority-majority areas and few university centers. It will take decades to rebuild Democratic party there.
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The Free North
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« Reply #33 on: December 08, 2014, 11:57:22 AM »

The seat could not have been held under present conditions and the actual result was not close.

12% in a racist and misogynist state is close.

Not as an incumbent when you won by 6 in the previous election.

The misogyny and racism hadn't as fully infected the state in 2008.


I'm not sure if you actually think what you post or you're just trying to draw attention to yourself.

Either way please take your politics back to the 9th grade lunch table....thanks
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #34 on: December 08, 2014, 12:02:17 PM »

I preferred this forum when there were more people who talked about elections in an intelligent manner and way less gibbering clowns.
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they don't love you like i love you
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« Reply #35 on: December 08, 2014, 05:13:27 PM »

Yeah I'm getting nostalgic. This type of junk uses to be rarer and had plenty of quality analysis as well.
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The Mikado
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« Reply #36 on: December 10, 2014, 01:07:36 AM »

It speaks volumes about the situation Mary Landrieu was in that a three-term senator losing her reelection bid by 12 points was considered "surprisingly close." She was doomed and no amount of DSCC money was going to change that.
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #37 on: December 10, 2014, 02:04:20 AM »

It speaks volumes about the situation Mary Landrieu was in that a three-term senator losing her reelection bid by 12 points was considered "surprisingly close." She was doomed and no amount of DSCC money was going to change that.

Agree. Maximum attainable was something between Iowa's and Colorado's percentages. Something like 53-47. And even that would require a LOT of efforts and money. Too big shift since 2008, especially - in Acadiana (and neighbouring areas), which, since then turned fiercely against Democrats. Landrieu lost about 10% statewide compared to 2008, but more then 20% in many parishes in South-West of the state.

It's interesting to see how southern whites "tolerated" (at least - partially and grudgingly) white liberals Kerry and Gore, but turned with vengeance, when black liberal Obama came to power...
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Miles
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« Reply #38 on: December 10, 2014, 02:35:11 AM »
« Edited: December 10, 2014, 02:37:11 AM by Miles »

Landrieu lost about 10% statewide compared to 2008, but more then 20% in many parishes in South-West of the state.

The five worst parishes that swung against her were all in the south/west:

Cameron: -62%
Vermilion: -47%
Vernon: -45%
Allen: -44%
Beauregard: -42%

Cameron is very small (less than 2,000 votes cast), but still, she won it in 2002/2008.

If Landrieu matched her 2008 margin (losing by 2) in LA-03, that would have almost cut her statewide margin in half (losing by 7 instead of 12).
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #39 on: December 10, 2014, 03:14:35 AM »

Landrieu lost about 10% statewide compared to 2008, but more then 20% in many parishes in South-West of the state.

The five worst parishes that swung against her were all in the south/west:

Cameron: -62%
Vermilion: -47%
Vernon: -45%
Allen: -44%
Beauregard: -42%

Cameron is very small (less than 2,000 votes cast), but still, she won it in 2002/2008.

If Landrieu matched her 2008 margin (losing by 2) in LA-03, that would have almost cut her statewide margin in half (losing by 7 instead of 12).


Miles, what happened with Acadiana?? Yes, we all know it's very conservative socially, but it refused to go for Goldwater in 1964 and went for Johnson even after Civil Rights Act. And that - at the time when North Louisiana parishes from Caddo to East Carroll went 80-85% (in some cases, like Claiborne - 89%) Goldwater. Acadiana was mainly segregationist, but not so fiercely segregationist in the past... Abortions? "Gay marriage"? Guns? Environment? What???
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nclib
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« Reply #40 on: December 10, 2014, 11:00:21 AM »

Can anyone compare the general results of all Dems vs. all Repubs by parish to the run-off result?
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Miles
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« Reply #41 on: December 10, 2014, 11:01:44 AM »
« Edited: December 10, 2014, 12:21:47 PM by Miles »

^ The Democratic total from November was 43.8%.

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Miles
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« Reply #42 on: December 10, 2014, 11:29:16 AM »


Miles, what happened with Acadiana?? Yes, we all know it's very conservative socially, but it refused to go for Goldwater in 1964 and went for Johnson even after Civil Rights Act. And that - at the time when North Louisiana parishes from Caddo to East Carroll went 80-85% (in some cases, like Claiborne - 89%) Goldwater. Acadiana was mainly segregationist, but not so fiercely segregationist in the past... Abortions? "Gay marriage"? Guns? Environment? What???

Acadiana always had higher particpation of blacks in politics than the rest of the south. Through the late 1800's, while black partipication in south was in single-digits, it was usually at least 10-15% higher in Acadiana. The political culture of the Catholics was more tolerant of multiraciailism.

In 1964, I know that the political machines played a big part in delivering the region for Goldwater. Claiborne Parish, for example, was an infamous segrationist strongold. If you go just north to AR, you were pretty much back to LBJ landslides.

My own experiences in the region are pretty limited. I have family in Lake Charles, where I've been to a few times. Still, I've had conversations with educated people there who were still skeptical that Obama was born in America! What I've noticed generally, too, in the region, is a rise in evanlegical non-Catholic denomiations. That might be another factor which is pushing Acadiana to behave like the rest of the deep south.

Here's a pretty neat read touching on this. What might most impressive in this whole equation was that the south stayed Democratic as long as it did.
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nclib
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« Reply #43 on: December 10, 2014, 08:55:23 PM »

Miles, did any counties go Dem/Cassidy or Rep/Landrieu?
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Miles
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« Reply #44 on: December 10, 2014, 09:16:39 PM »

^ Actually, a few parishes did. St. Bernard, St. Landry, Bienville and Assumption flipped to Landrieu in December.
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #45 on: December 11, 2014, 02:49:05 AM »


Miles, what happened with Acadiana?? Yes, we all know it's very conservative socially, but it refused to go for Goldwater in 1964 and went for Johnson even after Civil Rights Act. And that - at the time when North Louisiana parishes from Caddo to East Carroll went 80-85% (in some cases, like Claiborne - 89%) Goldwater. Acadiana was mainly segregationist, but not so fiercely segregationist in the past... Abortions? "Gay marriage"? Guns? Environment? What???

Acadiana always had higher particpation of blacks in politics than the rest of the south. Through the late 1800's, while black partipication in south was in single-digits, it was usually at least 10-15% higher in Acadiana. The political culture of the Catholics was more tolerant of multiraciailism.

In 1964, I know that the political machines played a big part in delivering the region for Goldwater. Claiborne Parish, for example, was an infamous segrationist strongold. If you go just north to AR, you were pretty much back to LBJ landslides.

My own experiences in the region are pretty limited. I have family in Lake Charles, where I've been to a few times. Still, I've had conversations with educated people there who were still skeptical that Obama was born in America! What I've noticed generally, too, in the region, is a rise in evanlegical non-Catholic denomiations. That might be another factor which is pushing Acadiana to behave like the rest of the deep south.

Here's a pretty neat read touching on this. What might most impressive in this whole equation was that the south stayed Democratic as long as it did.

Thanks! Really interesting. Of course - i would like more details (but it would, probably, require a book, and in downloadable format, taking into account where i spend almost all time now), but - thanks nevertheless!
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Miles
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« Reply #46 on: December 11, 2014, 01:33:09 PM »

Thanks! Really interesting. Of course - i would like more details (but it would, probably, require a book, and in downloadable format, taking into account where i spend almost all time now), but - thanks nevertheless!

A lot of my analysis on that is anecdotal/circumstantial, so I'd like to read more on it, too.
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