Hypothetical: DSCC invests in runoff, Keystone XL passes Senate and is vetoed

[IceSpear]

What would the result have been, when the actual is 56-44 Cassidy?

I'm saying 54-46 Cassidy. At first glance it seems like the swing should be more, but Louisiana doesn't seem like a state with too many persuadable voters in the Obama era.

[Miles]

Yep, I think she doesn't win, but she cracks 45%.

I wish the DSCC gave her some spending, at least for the sake of solidarity. Honestly, I gave them some donations, but I won't in 2016 after how they treated Landrieu.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

55-45 Cassidy.

[IceSpear]

Yep, I think she doesn't win, but she cracks 45%.

I wish the DSCC gave her some spending, at least for the sake of solidarity. Honestly, I gave them some donations, but I won't in 2016 after how they treated Landrieu.

The DSCC was pretty terrible in general this cycle. Throwing millions down the toilet in Arkansas. The cluster[finks] in South Dakota. Triaging Grimes, then randomly came back in to support her again. Granted, I thought at the time triaging her was a mistake, but I wasn't privy to the inside information they were that evidently showed her chances slipping away. Then they abandon Landrieu, who probably would've done at least as well as Nunn (who they spent millions on) had they actually helped her.

[Recalcuate]

Maybe 55-45 at most.

There was nothing really shocking about the runoff. Turnout was down about 180,000 votes, but the R+L numbers basically equalled the D numbers in the jungle.

All Republicans plus the Libertarian took 56.02% in the general. Cassidy finished with 55.94% of the vote in the runoff.

All Democrats pulled 43.98% in the general. Landrieu finished with 44.06% in the runoff.

People's minds were made up already for the most part.

[ElectionsGuy]

55-45 Cassidy.

[CountryClassSF]

What if she didn't vote for Obamacare and listened to her constituents might be a better question to ask.

[publicunofficial]

To me, the problems with the "Keystone would save the Democrats" issue are thusly:


1) If I'm the type of voter who is dead-set PASSIONATE about Keystone XL, I'm probably voting Republican anyway.

2) If I support Keystone XL, but not insanely so, then I have the choice between A) A Democrat who supports Keystone XL, but will also support the President who will veto it and the Majority Leader who doesn't support it, and B) A Republican who supports Keystone XL, and will help bring a GOP Majority that will make Keystone XL an easy pass through Congress.

[KCDem]

What if she didn't vote for Obamacare and listened to her constituents might be a better question to ask.

Obamacare is helping her constituents and would help them even more if Jindal weren't an ass.

[Lief 🗽]

What if she didn't vote for Obamacare

Then hundreds, perhaps thousands, of her constituents would have died or been sicker than they are today.

[IceSpear]

To me, the problems with the "Keystone would save the Democrats" issue are thusly:


1) If I'm the type of voter who is dead-set PASSIONATE about Keystone XL, I'm probably voting Republican anyway.

2) If I support Keystone XL, but not insanely so, then I have the choice between A) A Democrat who supports Keystone XL, but will also support the President who will veto it and the Majority Leader who doesn't support it, and B) A Republican who supports Keystone XL, and will help bring a GOP Majority that will make Keystone XL an easy pass through Congress.

Well, I don't think anyone thinks it would have saved her, let alone saved Democrats in general. But it could've helped at the margins.

[publicunofficial]

To me, the problems with the "Keystone would save the Democrats" issue are thusly:


1) If I'm the type of voter who is dead-set PASSIONATE about Keystone XL, I'm probably voting Republican anyway.

2) If I support Keystone XL, but not insanely so, then I have the choice between A) A Democrat who supports Keystone XL, but will also support the President who will veto it and the Majority Leader who doesn't support it, and B) A Republican who supports Keystone XL, and will help bring a GOP Majority that will make Keystone XL an easy pass through Congress.

Well, I don't think anyone thinks it would have saved her, let alone saved Democrats in general. But it could've helped at the margins.

Yeah but in the end who really cares about the margins? A loss is a loss. The only real difference between a 5 point loss and a 20 point loss is how seriously people take you the next time you run for office.

[Ljube]

What if she didn't vote for Obamacare and listened to her constituents might be a better question to ask.

She would have won, because there would be no way to paint her as Obama Democrat.

The same applies to Hagan.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

no executive action on immigration would have moved it a point or two in her favor.

[IceSpear]

What if she didn't vote for Obamacare and listened to her constituents might be a better question to ask.

She would have won, because there would be no way to paint her as Obama Democrat.

The same applies to Hagan.

Bobby Bright, Walt Minnick, Jim Marshall, John Barrow, Travis Childers, Gene Taylor, Lincoln Davis, and Chet Edwards all beg to differ.

[Skill and Chance]

no executive action on immigration would have moved it a point or two in her favor.

Are you sure?  If anything, the Dem base had unexpectedly high turnout for a runoff.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Yep, I think she doesn't win, but she cracks 45%.

I wish the DSCC gave her some spending, at least for the sake of solidarity. Honestly, I gave them some donations, but I won't in 2016 after how they treated Landrieu.

You're mad at them for not wasting money on something you admit was a lost cause???  You do know you could've just given directly to Landrieu's campaign, right?

[Skill and Chance]

Yep, I think she doesn't win, but she cracks 45%.

I wish the DSCC gave her some spending, at least for the sake of solidarity. Honestly, I gave them some donations, but I won't in 2016 after how they treated Landrieu.

You're mad at them for not wasting money on something you admit was a lost cause???  You do know you could've just given directly to Landrieu's campaign, right?

I think there is a strategic concern in that this decision may give the several rural McCain state Dems up in 2018 cold feet about running again.  Especially with a possible 50/50 or 51/49 senate going into 2018, that could be a big deal.  If you are Joe Manchin watching all of this go down, what would you think?