Is this the dumbest election prediction in Atlas history?
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  Is this the dumbest election prediction in Atlas history?
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Question: Is this the dumbest election prediction in Atlas history?
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Yes
 
#2
No
 
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Author Topic: Is this the dumbest election prediction in Atlas history?  (Read 2068 times)
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BRTD
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« on: December 07, 2014, 12:36:10 AM »

In regards to how many parishes Landrieu would win:

Only Orleans, but she'll win it by much more than she did (# total votes) than in November. Combining this with other parishes across the state, I'm going to predict that Cassidy wins by roughly a 51-49 margin.

We have the map now, and it's quite incorrect...but the sheer burning stupid of it was quite obvious even at the time it was made.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #1 on: December 07, 2014, 12:43:22 AM »

Apparently he thinks every state is Illinois.
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BRTD
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« Reply #2 on: December 07, 2014, 12:50:28 AM »

BTW this is what happens when a popular Republican incumbent Governor runs against a black Democrat who was most well known for blatant corruption, was later found with $90,000 in his freezer and was eventually sentenced to 13 years for bribery:



1-The result is 62.17%-29.53%, which is not anywhere near remotely close.
2-The Democrat still wins at least one non-Orleans parish.

I've said it before: NYE's non-RSS feed posts are probably even dumber than the RSS feed crap, including the ones where it was obviously he didn't even read the article.
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publicunofficial
angryGreatness
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« Reply #3 on: December 07, 2014, 12:52:11 AM »

Probably not even the dumbest prediction NYE has made this year.
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bedstuy
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« Reply #4 on: December 07, 2014, 01:02:07 AM »

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Miles
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« Reply #5 on: December 07, 2014, 01:14:41 AM »

NYE was also predicting Landrieu would get 29.5% in the primary, IIRC.
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Associate Justice PiT
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« Reply #6 on: December 07, 2014, 01:21:08 AM »

     That prediction is bad in at least four different ways (despite being only two sentences!). That is a special kind of awful.
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LeBron
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« Reply #7 on: December 07, 2014, 02:40:29 AM »
« Edited: August 17, 2017, 05:16:30 AM by LeBron FitzGerald »

If I remember correctly, it was NYE who said that Teachout would pull out an upset on Cuomo in the primary. As awesome as that would have been.....that definitely has a nomination for one of the biggest oddball predictions of this year and beats the Landrieu one I think.
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Flake
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« Reply #8 on: December 07, 2014, 02:48:27 AM »

Wouldn't Landrieu need to get more votes in Orleans than registered voters in order to get 49.99% and lose every other county?
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Vosem
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« Reply #9 on: December 07, 2014, 03:02:33 AM »

I can't think of a worse one off the top of my head, but Atlas has been around since 2003 and just in the time I've been here (since 2009) there've been some real oddballs, so I kinda doubt it.
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solarstorm
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« Reply #10 on: December 07, 2014, 03:40:49 AM »
« Edited: December 07, 2014, 04:13:32 AM by Landrieu for Governor »

BTW this is what happens when a popular Republican incumbent Governor runs against a black Democrat who was most well known for blatant corruption, was later found with $90,000 in his freezer and was eventually sentenced to 13 years for bribery:



1-The result is 62.17%-29.53%, which is not anywhere near remotely close.
2-The Democrat still wins at least one non-Orleans parish.

I've said it before: NYE's non-RSS feed posts are probably even dumber than the RSS feed crap, including the ones where it was obviously he didn't even read the article.

Is that hypothetical scenario, or did it really happen?

EDIT: I figured it out by myself; it was Murphy Foster, Jr., vs. William Jefferson in 1999.
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BRTD
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« Reply #11 on: December 07, 2014, 11:54:55 AM »

It might actually be worse than Dick Morris.



...wow. McCain's home state being leaning Obama is just the icing on the cake.

But that map, as idiotic and implausible as it is, is not as implausible as the scenario in the OP. The worst thing about it is that Landrieu had already won over 50% in some non-Orleans parishes in the first round.
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BRTD
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« Reply #12 on: December 07, 2014, 12:02:48 PM »

Wouldn't Landrieu need to get more votes in Orleans than registered voters in order to get 49.99% and lose every other county?

Theoretically no, but that doesn't really mean anything, theoretically she could've won Orleans by her actual margin and lost every other parish by a single vote and thus won with just that.

In terms of the numbers needed to do so....it's really not possible to calculate since it's just isn't plausible as a scenario, period. It's like asking to draw what an entire EC map would look like if the Republican won New York but the Democrat won Georgia. Or how a Democrat would lose Cook County and still win a statewide election in Illinois.
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MATTROSE94
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« Reply #13 on: December 07, 2014, 12:41:58 PM »

Not necessarily. The election predictions made by OC throughout this year were even more inaccurate IMO.
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memphis
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« Reply #14 on: December 07, 2014, 01:18:11 PM »

That one other parish is nearly 70% black. That does make a difference. I think Phil one time predicted a competitive local Philadelphia race that ended up going more than 90% Dem.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #15 on: December 07, 2014, 03:19:59 PM »

That one other parish is nearly 70% black. That does make a difference. I think Phil one time predicted a competitive local Philadelphia race that ended up going more than 90% Dem.

Once again, my comments are twisted by a known jackass.
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Snowstalker Mk. II
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« Reply #16 on: December 07, 2014, 03:22:18 PM »

That one other parish is nearly 70% black. That does make a difference. I think Phil one time predicted a competitive local Philadelphia race that ended up going more than 90% Dem.

I'm pretty sure that's how the 2006 Senate race went.
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Kalwejt
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« Reply #17 on: December 07, 2014, 03:45:54 PM »

It might actually be worse than Dick Morris.



Attention President Obama. Please drone Dick Morris ASAP.
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Tetro Kornbluth
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« Reply #18 on: December 07, 2014, 06:19:56 PM »

I'm surprised this wasn't a J.J. nostalgia thread.
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they don't love you like i love you
BRTD
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« Reply #19 on: December 07, 2014, 08:29:21 PM »

I'm surprised this wasn't a J.J. nostalgia thread.

Most of J. J.'s extremely idiotic predictions are explained by just sheer hackishness. Someone being a complete hack and making unrealistic or idiotic predictions in favor of their side isn't too surprising or to be unexpected.

But this on the other hand is just something else.
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Illuminati Blood Drinker
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« Reply #20 on: December 07, 2014, 10:54:38 PM »

It might actually be worse than Dick Morris.



...wow. McCain's home state being leaning Obama is just the icing on the cake.
No, the icing on the cake is Arkansas being Strong Obama. Arkansas. Strong Obama.

I can't. I just can't.
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CrabCake
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« Reply #21 on: December 08, 2014, 04:32:40 AM »

The weird thing about that prediction (well, there's a hundred weird things about the map; but let's keep things brief) is that Morris says "Obama extends his lead but McCain can still catch up" when his prediction shows Obama obliterating McCain even if all the Leans-Dem states flip red.
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they don't love you like i love you
BRTD
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« Reply #22 on: December 08, 2014, 04:57:40 AM »

Wasn't Dick Morris also one of those top advocates of that Serious People pundit talking point that Romney was going to win in a landslide, that there was NO WAY Obama could ever be re-elected with the current economic numbers and that the polls were obviously wrong and should just be ignored?
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jfern
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« Reply #23 on: December 08, 2014, 05:43:32 AM »

It might actually be worse than Dick Morris.



...wow. McCain's home state being leaning Obama is just the icing on the cake.
No, the icing on the cake is Arkansas being Strong Obama. Arkansas. Strong Obama.

I can't. I just can't.

And just think. This was Clinton's top adviser for the 1996 campaign, who convinced Clinton he had to go total 3rd-way in order to win.
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