Is this the dumbest election prediction in Atlas history?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

In regards to how many parishes Landrieu would win:

Only Orleans, but she'll win it by much more than she did (# total votes) than in November. Combining this with other parishes across the state, I'm going to predict that Cassidy wins by roughly a 51-49 margin.

We have the map now, and it's quite incorrect...but the sheer burning stupid of it was quite obvious even at the time it was made.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

BTW this is what happens when a popular Republican incumbent Governor runs against a black Democrat who was most well known for blatant corruption, was later found with $90,000 in his freezer and was eventually sentenced to 13 years for bribery:



1-The result is 62.17%-29.53%, which is not anywhere near remotely close.
2-The Democrat still wins at least one non-Orleans parish.

I've said it before: NYE's non-RSS feed posts are probably even dumber than the RSS feed crap, including the ones where it was obviously he didn't even read the article.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

It might actually be worse than Dick Morris.

...wow. McCain's home state being leaning Obama is just the icing on the cake.

But that map, as idiotic and implausible as it is, is not as implausible as the scenario in the OP. The worst thing about it is that Landrieu had already won over 50% in some non-Orleans parishes in the first round.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Wouldn't Landrieu need to get more votes in Orleans than registered voters in order to get 49.99% and lose every other county?

Theoretically no, but that doesn't really mean anything, theoretically she could've won Orleans by her actual margin and lost every other parish by a single vote and thus won with just that.

In terms of the numbers needed to do so....it's really not possible to calculate since it's just isn't plausible as a scenario, period. It's like asking to draw what an entire EC map would look like if the Republican won New York but the Democrat won Georgia. Or how a Democrat would lose Cook County and still win a statewide election in Illinois.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I'm surprised this wasn't a J.J. nostalgia thread.

Most of J. J.'s extremely idiotic predictions are explained by just sheer hackishness. Someone being a complete hack and making unrealistic or idiotic predictions in favor of their side isn't too surprising or to be unexpected.

But this on the other hand is just something else.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Wasn't Dick Morris also one of those top advocates of that Serious People pundit talking point that Romney was going to win in a landslide, that there was NO WAY Obama could ever be re-elected with the current economic numbers and that the polls were obviously wrong and should just be ignored?