LA and NC 2016 Congressional Races

[Miles]

LA-04: Fleming fanning the flames of xenophobia:

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[IceSpear]

Unsurprisingly, the nomination is Hagan's if she wants it: she leads Cowell 66-12 in a hypothetical primary. She would also lead Cooper 43-31 in a gubernatorial primary, but I don't know why they would poll such a ridiculous scenario.

http://www.nccivitas.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/dem-primary-xtabs-3.25.15.pdf

[RogueBeaver]

NC-Sen: Burr planning to run on FP.

[RogueBeaver]

NC-Sen: Burr leads all Dems by double digits.

[Ebsy]

It would be better to run someone with low name recognition against Burr(which can be fixed) then to run Hagan against him who seems widely despised)which really can't be fixed. Also, it's looking like North Carolinians are having buyers remorse with Thom Tillis. They get the representation they deserve.

[Maxwell]

It would be better to run someone with low name recognition against Burr(which can be fixed) then to run Hagan against him who seems widely despised)which really can't be fixed. Also, it's looking like North Carolinians are having buyers remorse with Thom Tillis. They get the representation they deserve.

I agree. A Hagan-Burr race would be very predictable.

[RogueBeaver]

NC-Sen: No one knows what Hagan will do. Cowell unlikely to run, Jackson to decide in coming weeks.

[moderatevoter]

Looks like Janet Cowell is out.

[Maxwell]

Cowell was the most likely of any of these candidates to beat Burr. Burr is safe.

[IceSpear]

Looks like Janet Cowell is out.

Ouch.

[smoltchanov]

Mike McIntyre is intolerable... He used to represent my district (NC-7), and he's arguably more conservative than the actual Republican currently representing our district, David Rouzer.

I would take any other Democrat over McIntyre any day, even if they're less likely to win.

Statistics says otherwise: while McIntyre is, undoubtely, a conservative Democrat, he is much LESS conservative then Rouzer. And, btw, NO democrat, but him, can win present 7th, your wish notwithstanding. It's a FACT. I like to say that if the only Democrat, who can win a particular District, is to the right of James Eastland - Democrats mst run him. Ditto - for Republicans (with Eastland substituted for Jacob Javits and right for left)

P.S. If you want to see REALLY conservative Democrat - look who represented this district in early 70th. He was a REAL conservative Democrat, and, may be, would really be as conservative as Rouzer is..

[RogueBeaver]

NC-2: Aiken says no rematch this cycle, though he says he will run again later this decade. Also calls Ellmers an idiot and a b*tch.

[Maxwell]

NC-2: Aiken says no rematch this cycle, though he says he will run again later this decade. Also calls Ellmers an idiot and a b*tch.

LOL. RIP his imaginary political career.

[SATW]

NC-2: Aiken says no rematch this cycle, though he says he will run again later this decade. Also calls Ellmers an idiot and a b*tch.

LOL. He is a joke.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Mike McIntyre is intolerable... He used to represent my district (NC-7), and he's arguably more conservative than the actual Republican currently representing our district, David Rouzer.

I would take any other Democrat over McIntyre any day, even if they're less likely to win.

Statistics says otherwise: while McIntyre is, undoubtely, a conservative Democrat, he is much LESS conservative then Rouzer. And, btw, NO democrat, but him, can win present 7th, your wish notwithstanding. It's a FACT. I like to say that if the only Democrat, who can win a particular District, is to the right of James Eastland - Democrats mst run him. Ditto - for Republicans (with Eastland substituted for Jacob Javits and right for left)

P.S. If you want to see REALLY conservative Democrat - look who represented this district in early 70th. He was a REAL conservative Democrat, and, may be, would really be as conservative as Rouzer is..

I would have voted for McIntyre if he had run again but he didn't.

I now live in the 13th so the point is moot anyway.

[smoltchanov]

Mike McIntyre is intolerable... He used to represent my district (NC-7), and he's arguably more conservative than the actual Republican currently representing our district, David Rouzer.

I would take any other Democrat over McIntyre any day, even if they're less likely to win.

Statistics says otherwise: while McIntyre is, undoubtely, a conservative Democrat, he is much LESS conservative then Rouzer. And, btw, NO democrat, but him, can win present 7th, your wish notwithstanding. It's a FACT. I like to say that if the only Democrat, who can win a particular District, is to the right of James Eastland - Democrats mst run him. Ditto - for Republicans (with Eastland substituted for Jacob Javits and right for left)

P.S. If you want to see REALLY conservative Democrat - look who represented this district in early 70th. He was a REAL conservative Democrat, and, may be, would really be as conservative as Rouzer is..

I would have voted for McIntyre if he had run again but he didn't.

I now live in the 13th so the point is moot anyway.

Of course. I simply get mad from time to time because of misuse of common terms "liberal" and "conservative". Since at least FDR they have very precisely defined meaning. And when someone uses term "conservaDem" or RINO where they absolutely unapplicable - well, that's either intentional slander or ignorance at best. Want to see REAL liberal Republican? People like Javits, or Ogden Reid (or former San Rafael (California) mayor Al Boro at local level, who routinely got over 75% of vote in a city which voted about 70% Obama) are your men. Need REAL conservative Democrat? Eastland, Larry McDonald, John Rarick, Bob Stump and Phil Gramm (while both were Democrats) or David Satterfield would do. Even Alton Lennon from NC-07 in the past (whom i hinted at in previous post).... But i begin to laugh sarcastically when Gwen Graham or Patrick Murphy are called "conservatives" and even more when Frank Guinta or even Dave Reichert are called "liberals"...

[Miles]

Elon has the closet Hagan/Burr poll I've seen; Burr only leads 44/43.

[RogueBeaver]

LA-Sen: National Journal update.

[Miles]

John Kennedy is running for reelection as Treasurer.

The implication is he'll run for Senate, as he's even endorsed Vitter for Governor.

It would be an interesting matchup with Kennedy and Fleming. Kennedy is sitting on $4 million, in large part accumulated from running unopposed in 2011, so that would make fundraising less of an issue for him going into a Senate race.

[Ebsy]

Is Vitter leaving the Senate because everyone in Washington hates him?

[smoltchanov]

Is Vitter leaving the Senate because everyone in Washington hates him?

Surely no. Conservative Republican Senators and congressmen do, most likely, love him))) May be - even strongly.  You may hate a person, sure, but that doesn't mean that everyone else does....

[Miles]

^ Old as its getting, his prostitution scandal effectively precludes him from moving into the caucus leadership at any point down the road.

[smoltchanov]

^ Old as its getting, his prostitution scandal effectively precludes him from moving into the caucus leadership at any point down the road.

Probably. But that doesn't mean that everyone hates him. In Washington or Louisiana. After all - the universaly hated politician has little chances to be elected Governor, isn't he?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Vitter is polarizing like Walker; but thst brand of conservatism fits very well at the state level; but not at the natl level.

[RogueBeaver]

NC-Sen: Hagan attending a Raleigh fundraiser for State Senate Dems next month.