LA and NC 2016 Congressional Races

[RogueBeaver]

NC-Sen: Schumer wants Hagan to run, but she hasn't yet decided when she'll decide.

[publicunofficial]

NC-Sen: Schumer wants Hagan to run, but she hasn't yet decided when she'll decide.

LOL Schumer. Anyway, why should she run? Hagan (and other Democrats like Sestak) apparently hope to benefit from Hillary's coattails, but if Hillary loses the state (which is very likely), Hagan is toast. This race is "Leans Republican". Burr is heavily favored even if Hillary wins the state by 1 point.

True, if you look back at the last Presidential election, no Democrat won a Senate race in a state Obama lost.

[Miles]

I got an email from Landrieu saying she'll be an energy advisor with a Washington DC firm. I guess that settles the question if she'll run again.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I got an email from Landrieu saying she'll be an energy advisor with a Washington DC firm. I guess that settles the question if she'll run again.

Well, it's not like she had much of a chance of victory anyways.

[Miles]

^ Ah, aren't we just so smart!

[Miles]

NC-03: Jones is (probably) getting another primary challenger:

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His challenger from last year, Taylor Griffin, was planning on running again, last I heard.

[windjammer]

If Hagan passes, which democrat would be the senate candidate?

[Dancing with Myself]

I hope we have a solid Senate race because Burr needs to be tested properly. Marshall was DOA in '10 and everyone knew it.

I think Cal Cunningham is a guy to look at as the favorite unless Kay runs, he forced Marshall to a run off in 10 and won my area handily both times (especially the runoff.) Allen Joines the mayor of Winston Salem may run, he seems like a good fellow. Besides them, Dan Blue, Brad Miller, and McIntyre none of the canidates are mentionable.  If Cal or Joines gets it both major candidates will be from Winston.

As for my Rep Walker I'm not crazy on him. I wanted Voncannon but he lost so I voted for Walker in the runoff to avoid Burger. Walker hasn't done anything to notice him yet one way or another. I voted Fjeld in the general.

[smoltchanov]

Well, with both parties having relatively large and committed bases in the state, they must either mobilize their base to the utmost and hope, or (IMHO - better approach) run a candidate able to win undecideds and the middle. Burr is a known quantity and, generally, works along first approach. May be  - Democrats need a candidate able to work along second one?

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

We already know how the Congressional races for the next few cycles in Louisiana go. Democrats win LA-02, Republicans win everything else. If you want interesting areas to talk about, there's NH or upstate NY.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

We already know how the Congressional races for the next few cycles in Louisiana go. Democrats win LA-02, Republicans win everything else. If you want interesting areas to talk about, there's NH or upstate NY.

LA-04 might be an open seat next year (Fleming is high on the shortlist for potential Non-Vitter 2016 senate nominees), and is only R+13 (It's actually the only republican district less than R+15, looks like Jindal knows how to gerrymander.). Any chance it flips in a 2008-style wave?

Congressional races also includes the Senate. Democrats have a silm chance at winning Vitter's seat next year, as it will probably be a quasi-open seat (appointed senator due to Vitter winning Governorship), in which case the republican primary could be a real bloodbath. However, Democrats would need a great nominee to do it, and I'm not sure who they have beyond Mitch Landrieu and Cedric Richmond (D, LA-2), both of which seem unlikely to take the plunge.

[RogueBeaver]

NC-Sen: Jackson out.

[Miles]

NC-03: NC Transportation Secretary Tony Tata isn't running, leaving the primary a rematch between Jones and Griffin, ATM.

LA-04 might be an open seat next year (Fleming is high on the shortlist for potential Non-Vitter 2016 senate nominees), and is only R+13 (It's actually the only republican district less than R+15, looks like Jindal knows how to gerrymander.). Any chance it flips in a 2008-style wave?

It would be tough, even though the district is trending Democratic. Republicans have a decent bench to draw from in the Shreveport area. OTOH, Elbert Guillory represents part of this district; seeing as he'll be boxed out of the LG contest this year (and likely his State Senate seat), he'd could look at this race. I suppose the Republicans need to reward him somehow for his treasonous ways.

To start, any Democrat would have to win the Caddo Parish by a larger vote margin than the Republican wins Bossier. Further south, the parishes near the Toledo Bend are especially rough; the Democrat would need to be at or approaching 30% in Sabine/Vernon/Beauregard parishes.

[RogueBeaver]

NC-Sen: Hagan out.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

NC-Sen: Hagan out.

Not surprised given her favorability.

Unless Cowell changes her mind, this race is Likely R.

[Nyvin]

NC-Sen: Schumer wants Hagan to run, but she hasn't yet decided when she'll decide.

LOL Schumer. Anyway, why should she run? Hagan (and other Democrats like Sestak) apparently hope to benefit from Hillary's coattails, but if Hillary loses the state (which is very likely), Hagan is toast. This race is "Leans Republican". Burr is heavily favored even if Hillary wins the state by 1 point.

True, if you look back at the last Presidential election, no Democrat won a Senate race in a state Obama lost.

It's the South and Burr is an incumbent and no Akin. Quite a difference here. Hagan won't run ahead of Hillary, no chance.

North Carolina is a fast growing state,  I think it's nearly impossible to tell exactly how it will vote in 2016.

[ElectionsGuy]

NC-Sen: Hagan out.

I guess relying on last year's loser was a bad bet.

[Maxwell]

Who is still out there that could run and be credible?

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Who is still out there that could run and be credible?

McIntyre and Heath Shuler are often brought up, but they could have problems turning out the democratic base. Beyond that are a collection of untested pols with low to medium name recognition - senate minority leader Dan Blue, Mayor Allen Jones and State Sen. Josh Stein are mentioned most often.

[Maxwell]

Who is still out there that could run and be credible?

McIntyre and Heath Shuler are often brought up, but they could have problems turning out the democratic base. Beyond that are a collection of untested pols with low to medium name recognition - senate minority leader Dan Blue, Mayor Allen Jones and State Sen. Josh Stein are mentioned most often.

It seems like all the stars who could actually win this are bowing out. Unless Burr runs a Dole-level campaign, I'm ready to say he's going to get re-elected.

[Ebsy]

NC was always going be a longshot with Hagan. It's definitely Likely R now. Get someone credible for wave insurance, watch the polls, and move on.

[RogueBeaver]

LA-Sen: Boustany is running. Possibility Vitter appoints a placeholder.

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

LA-Sen: Boustany is running. Possibility Vitter appoints a placeholder.

Showdown with Fleming?

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

LA-Sen: Boustany is running. Possibility Vitter appoints a placeholder.

Showdown with Fleming?

Yes. Possibly John Kennedy as well.

[RogueBeaver]

LA-Sen: Fleming raises $741k.