LA and NC 2016 Congressional Races

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

NC-03: FreedomWorks endorsing Jones.

Far-right wing organization supports candidate, who has one of the most moderate voting record  (among Republicans, of course) at least on some issues (yes, yes, i know about Jones "specific" voting))))))))

Jones' "moderate" votes generally come from the right, not the center.

[smoltchanov]

NC-03: FreedomWorks endorsing Jones.

Far-right wing organization supports candidate, who has one of the most moderate voting record  (among Republicans, of course) at least on some issues (yes, yes, i know about Jones "specific" voting))))))))

Jones' "moderate" votes generally come from the right, not the center.

On foreign policy too?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

NC-03: FreedomWorks endorsing Jones.

Far-right wing organization supports candidate, who has one of the most moderate voting record  (among Republicans, of course) at least on some issues (yes, yes, i know about Jones "specific" voting))))))))

Jones' "moderate" votes generally come from the right, not the center.

On foreign policy too?

They certainly don't come from left.  If anything, they seem to be part of a disillusionment on Jones' part with neo-cons due to the Iraq war.  Walter Jones is not a moderate by any stretch of the imagination.

[smoltchanov]

NC-03: FreedomWorks endorsing Jones.

Far-right wing organization supports candidate, who has one of the most moderate voting record  (among Republicans, of course) at least on some issues (yes, yes, i know about Jones "specific" voting))))))))

Jones' "moderate" votes generally come from the right, not the center.

On foreign policy too?

They certainly don't come from left.  If anything, they seem to be part of a disillusionment on Jones' part with neo-cons due to the Iraq war.  Walter Jones is not a moderate by any stretch of the imagination.

Looking at his National Journal or ProgressivePunch ratings one can conclude that he is not simply moderate, he is very moderate. More so, then some Democrats))))

[/]

Yeah, Walter Jones is no moderate. He's just "unique."

[Miles]

LA-04: Known opportunist Elbert Guillory (R->D->R) is running for LA-04, though I heard he was more likely to run for LA-03. Guillory ran for LG last year but didn't get very far. 

[smoltchanov]

LA-04: Known opportunist Elbert Guillory (R->D->R) is running for LA-04, though I heard he was more likely to run for LA-03. Guillory ran for LG last year but didn't get very far. 

Probably - no chances against a candidate from Shreveport area? That's where votes are in this district. But so far i see only one (and rather unlikely) scenario where Democrats may become competitive in LA-04...

[Miles]

^ Actually he doesn't even live in CD4. I forgot that the majority of St. Landry Parish is in CD5, not CD4. Only 5% of the CD's votes come from it. The good news for him is that there are a bevy of Shreveport candidates who could run.

Edit: Actually St. Landry Parish is split about evenly between CDs 4 and 5, but Guillory still lives in 5.

[Miles]

LA-Sen: Caroline Fayard (D) is reportedly moving towards a Senate run. Fayard comes from a prominent Democratic family; she made her electoral debut in 2010, in the LG special election. She lost by 14%, but likely would have done better against another Republican, as Dardenne had strong crossover support in the otherwise D-trending Baton Rouge area.

Fayard is pro-life, IIRC. Still, I'd peg her closer to a mainstream Democrat like Kay Hagan or Michelle Nunn than a centrist/conservative like Mary Landrieu or Blanche Lincoln.

NC-Sen: Ross continues to rack of endorsements, getting support from EMILY's List, and more importantly, the DSCC.

[windjammer]

Honestly Miles,
Is fayard a good candidate?

[Miles]

^ She had one gaffe (after her LG campaign, IIRC), when she said she "hates Republicans." The LAGOP even made it into a bumper sticker, and it would be undoubtedly come up endlessly in ads against her.

Other than that, I didn't hear anything bad about her actual campaign. She had a tough opponent in a bad year.

[Miles]

LA-Sen: Kennedy is running.

It also sounds like Democrats are getting a candidate in Lafayette-area businessman Josh Pellerin.

[smoltchanov]

^ Both - interesting. Kennedy is former (and not especially conservative, AFAIK) Democrat and, probably, not very conservative Republican now. Pellerin seems to run as rather conservative Democrat, so we may have a sort of unique mix in Louisiana jungle primary...

[Miles]

NC-03: Jones gets endorsed by Phyllis Schlafly's PAC. Ugh, and I'd still rather him over Taylor Griffin any day.

Maness is also officially running in LA.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

What are Maness's odds of making the runoff?

[Miles]

^ Not particularly great, at least relatively so given the uncertainty that this clown car will bring.

The main far-right niche is already taken by Fleming, who should be better funded and has a more consolidated regional base. In the 2014 primary, Maness' best parishes were generally in Acadiana, which should also have a few of its own favorite sons running.

To his credit, he's built a decent state network with his GatorPAC. He was one of the first to endorse Jeff Landry, for example, as well as a few conservative state legislators who defeated other Republicans, IIRC.

[Miles]

LA-Sen: As was rumored, ex. State Sen. Troy Hebert, who represented Iberia and St. Martin parishes as a Democrat, will be running as an Independent.

This was quite a big week for this race, as the number of serious candidates has doubled. They were mostly expected, but its something nontheless.

[Kingpoleon]

Endorsing: Cao>Herbert>Kennedy

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I won't make an endorsement until closer to the jungle. You don't actually file for the race until September, I suspect some will opt out by then.

[smoltchanov]

I always make an endorsements exactly one month before election (both general and primary if needed).. So, it's way too early for me.

But with Hebert being involved in relatively nasty sex scandal (and running as Indie to boot) - i doubt he has good chances to be in "top 2". Only if Democrats will not run anybody... And Vitter's scandal still too fresh in people's memory.... Though his political past (as a somewhat conservative-leaning former Democratic state  legislator) is not bad for Louisiana...

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

NC-03: Jones gets endorsed by Phyllis Schlafly's PAC. Ugh, and I'd still rather him over Taylor Griffin any day.

Immigration issue at work there.

[Miles]

LA-04: Shreveport cardiologist Dr. Trey Baucum (R) is running. This is his first race but doctors have a pretty good track record in LA: Boustany, Cassidy and Fleming were all physicians as well.

A few other candidate mentions in the article:

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[Miles]

LA-Sen: Fayard is launching her campaign.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

LA-Sen: Fayard is launching her campaign.

This is exactly the sort of Democrat that at least has a chance in Louisiana.

[smoltchanov]

LA-04: Shreveport cardiologist Dr. Trey Baucum (R) is running. This is his first race but doctors have a pretty good track record in LA: Boustany, Cassidy and Fleming were all physicians as well.

A few other candidate mentions in the article:

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Jefferson is black. In such disrict it's synonimous with "no chances"...