LA and NC 2016 Congressional Races

[smoltchanov]

LA-Sen: To the extent he's still relevant, Ben Carson endorses Maness.

Well, i doubt, that it will give Maness a lot of Black votes...

[Miles]

^ For some reason, I don't think that the black vote was what the Maness campaign was targeting by rolling out this endorsement.

[smoltchanov]

^ For some reason, I don't think that the black vote was what the Maness campaign was targeting by rolling out this endorsement.

I agree)) But he did't needed Carson to make inroads in social conservative vote block - he had solid "bona fide" credentials there even before...))

[Miles]

LA-Sen: JBE is supporting Campbell.

[smoltchanov]

^ Expected. But i would try something "new" (Pellerin, for example) instead of the "old hand" (with it's well-known pluses and minuses)....

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

^^ Meh. Campbell seems fine in terms of ideology but Fayard is probably more electable.


(Nope, this isn't an endorsement of Fayard. I'm undecided between her and Cao.)

[Miles]

^ Expected. But i would try something "new" (Pellerin, for example) instead of the "old hand" (with it's well-known pluses and minuses)....

Yeah, but Foster is popular in his PSC district which includes some rough turf.

[smoltchanov]

^ Expected. But i would try something "new" (Pellerin, for example) instead of the "old hand" (with it's well-known pluses and minuses)....

Yeah, but Foster is popular in his PSC district which includes some rough turf.

In North-Western part of the state i suppose? Yeah, but still 4 losses for career (3 times for LA-04, if i correct, and one - for Governor) is not a small thing either. In each case there were reasons for loss, and, generally, decent results, but still - substantial number. And he will be 69 by November. Now it's a sort of fashion to run candidates in this age bracket: both Clinton and Trump belong to that group too.

[Miles]

LA-03: The poll is a few weeks old, but Angelle has an internal where he pretty easily avoids a runoff:

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[Miles]

LA-02: Despite being at a serious geographic disadvantage, ex-Baton Rouge Mayor Kip Holden (D) is challenging Rep. Richmond.

I wish the Democrats had talked him into CD6 instead. It's tough, but in his LG runoff last year, he got 47% there, far ahead of Obama's 33%. Would have been good wave insurance.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

^^ That would be above the intellectual ability of DWS.

[Miles]

LA-Sen: JBE is supporting Campbell.

From my inbox, JBE is now actively raising money for Campbell. That link from April was just about what he told the DSCC, but looks he's being more overt now.

[Heisenberg]

I am a bit worried about this LA race. It is guaranteed to go to a runoff, right?

Yes, unless a candidate breaks 50% on election night.

[Miles]

^ Yep.

Just on the R side, you have Fleming competing with Maness, and Boustany with Kennedy. Combine that with the three Democrats (and Indie Dem Troy Hebert), and no way anyone clears 50%.

[Miles]

LA-02: Despite being at a serious geographic disadvantage, ex-Baton Rouge Mayor Kip Holden (D) is challenging Rep. Richmond.

I wish the Democrats had talked him into CD6 instead. It's tough, but in his LG runoff last year, he got 47% there, far ahead of Obama's 33%. Would have been good wave insurance.

I don't get this.  By all accounts, Richmond is above board and doing right by his constituents.  What does Holden think his angle is here?

I don't get it, either.

He wasn't a great fundraiser when he ran statewide, and underperformed in the New Orleans area even then (e.g., losing Jefferson Parish 65/35 while JBE carried it).

Richmond is popular with the rank and file members of the state party, as well, so I don't think that makes Holden's fundraising any easier.

[Miles]

^ Yeah, listening to Campbell on the stump (e.g., he goes first in this forum) he's definitely the most populist-sounding, which would help. He's also popular in his PSC district, which is a lot of northern LA.

[Heisenberg]

I am a bit worried about this LA race. It is guaranteed to go to a runoff, right?

If this is serious, why?  Are you worried about a D vs. D or D vs. Lefty I runoff due to vote splitting? Or are you worried about Campbell tapping into disaffected Trumpy turnout and beating an R outright like JBE did last year?

Yeah, I'm worried about Campbell winning the runoff, especially if control of the Senate is already settled. Democrats can still win a Senate race in LA against a weak Republican. I'm generally worried about open seats - they can cause much trouble. 

Absolutely. If Landrieu faced a weak candidate in 2014 she would have been reelected. Open Senate seats should never be taken for granted. (See Rick Berg 2012 as a classic example.) It would also be interesting (and scary) if the runoff ended up deciding Senate control.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

I am a bit worried about this LA race. It is guaranteed to go to a runoff, right?

If this is serious, why?  Are you worried about a D vs. D or D vs. Lefty I runoff due to vote splitting? Or are you worried about Campbell tapping into disaffected Trumpy turnout and beating an R outright like JBE did last year?

Yeah, I'm worried about Campbell winning the runoff, especially if control of the Senate is already settled. Democrats can still win a Senate race in LA against a weak Republican. I'm generally worried about open seats - they can cause much trouble. 

Absolutely. If Landrieu faced a weak candidate in 2014 she would have been reelected. Open Senate seats should never be taken for granted. (See Rick Berg 2012 as a classic example.) It would also be interesting (and scary) if the runoff ended up deciding Senate control.

If it was to decide senate control there is no way, even if the entire Republican Party is revealed to be an elaborate money laundering ring, the seat would go democratic.

[Miles]

I am a bit worried about this LA race. It is guaranteed to go to a runoff, right?

If this is serious, why?  Are you worried about a D vs. D or D vs. Lefty I runoff due to vote splitting? Or are you worried about Campbell tapping into disaffected Trumpy turnout and beating an R outright like JBE did last year?

Yeah, I'm worried about Campbell winning the runoff, especially if control of the Senate is already settled. Democrats can still win a Senate race in LA against a weak Republican. I'm generally worried about open seats - they can cause much trouble. 

Absolutely. If Landrieu faced a weak candidate in 2014 she would have been reelected. Open Senate seats should never be taken for granted. (See Rick Berg 2012 as a classic example.) It would also be interesting (and scary) if the runoff ended up deciding Senate control.

What would be really interesting is if Trump is President-Elect and the senate is 50D/49R pending LA (IL, WI, NH and FL flipped).  It's likely Trump would secretly prefer a D-controlled senate with red state populists like Manchin and Campbell holding all the cards vs. an R-controlled senate for his budget negotiations with Ryan.

To make it even more interesting, suppose Trumpists also propelled Barksdale into a runoff in GA even as Trump comfortably won the state.

Yeah, if you gave me the general script of Campbell's announcement ad and didn't tell me who it was for, I might have guessed Trump. He mentions revesring our trade deals and beefing up border security, among other things.

[windjammer]

Miles, does Fostel Campbell really plan to spend big for this race?

[Miles]

^ Looks like all he had as of the last report (at the end of March) was a $250K self-loan. I guess JBE's endorsement will help with that. JBE didn't have issues raising money in his race, and I don't see why that wouldn't be the case in a runoff this time. 

[Miles]

LA-02: Despite being at a serious geographic disadvantage, ex-Baton Rouge Mayor Kip Holden (D) is challenging Rep. Richmond.

I wish the Democrats had talked him into CD6 instead. It's tough, but in his LG runoff last year, he got 47% there, far ahead of Obama's 33%. Would have been good wave insurance.

I don't get this.  By all accounts, Richmond is above board and doing right by his constituents.  What does Holden think his angle is here?

I don't get it, either.

He wasn't a great fundraiser when he ran statewide, and underperformed in the New Orleans area even then (e.g., losing Jefferson Parish 65/35 while JBE carried it).

Richmond is popular with the rank and file members of the state party, as well, so I don't think that makes Holden's fundraising any easier.

And the LA Democratic party endorsed Richmond yesterday.

It looks like they only have candidates for CDs 2 and 6 (though the filing deadline is still two months away).

[smoltchanov]

^ With Cajun country cratering for Democrats during Obama years i can easily understand absence of Democratic candidates for LA-03. But LA-04 is (IMHO) a "second best" district for Democrats in the state. And no candidate??? Someone like former mayor Hightower (white and not very liberal) could be competitive there, but, of course, no Black candidate would...

[JMT]

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/06/trump-backs-ellmers-in-first-congressional-endorsement-223909

Trump has endorsed Renee Ellmers right before her primary on Tuesday in his first Congressional endorsement. Does this help or hurt Renee? Or does it not make any difference at all?

Also, who do you think will win the CD2 nomination for Republicans? I think Holding wins

[Maxwell]

Would that take votes away from Brannon? Or is Brannon too insignificant to matter in this primary?