LA and NC 2016 Congressional Races

[Heisenberg]

Well, I always said that this seat was more vulnerable for Republicans than most people had assumed. That being said, I don't think Duke will win the GOP primary. A generic R vs. Campbell runoff will be competitive anyway, though.

There's no GOP primary.

Oops, totally forgot about that. Either way,  I doubt that Duke will make the runoff.

I'd really like to see polls. This is kind of scary now. There are a ton of other Republicans in the race. But even then, Duke has no chance, right?

[Miles]

^ He also ran for Senate in 1991, which was several years past his heyday, in a smaller field than this and still got almost 12%.

[Miles]

Getting a bit past the Duke news, its looks like 24 candidates will be on the ballot. With that amount, there's good geographic diversity:

Republicans (9)

- Charles Boustany (Lafayette)
- Joseph Cao (Jefferson)
- Donald "Crawdaddy" Crawford (St. Tammany)
- David Duke (St. Tammany)
- John Fleming (Webster)
- John Kennedy (East Baton Rouge)
- Rob Maness (St. Tammany)
- Charles Marsala (Jefferson)
- Abhay Patel (Orleans)

Democrats (7) :

- Foster Campbell (Bossier)
- Derrick Edwards (Jefferson)
- Caroline Fayard (East Baton Rouge)
- Gary Landrieu (Orleans)
- Vinny Mendoza (Tangipahoa)
- Josh Pellerin (Lafayette)
- Peter Williams (Pointe Coupee)

Libertarians (2)

- Thomas Clements (Lafayette)
- Le Roy Gillam (St. Landry)

Independents/Other (6)

- Beryl Billiot (Tangipahoa)
- Troy Hebert (Iberia)
- Bob Lang (Natchitoches)
- Kaitlin Marone (Orleans)
- Gregory Taylor (Orleans)
- Arden Wells (Tangipahoa)

[Ebsy]

Is Landrieu likely to get the most support out of the 7 democrats?

[Miles]

^ No, the Landrieus are supporting Fayard.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

^That's a rather large field on both sides. Is there a push to narrow the field on either side, if that's even possible at this point?

[Miles]

^ If they want to drop out, the candidates have a week after the close of filing (today) to request their name be removed from the ballot.

Personally, 7 Democrats is more than I'd like...

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Also, is Derrick Edwards related to Edwin or John Bel?

Edit: The NRSC is #NEVERDUKE: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/07/david-duke-senate-kkk-226028

[Miles]

^ I'd think neither, as he's black.

[Kingpoleon]

Is Landrieu likely to get the most support out of the 7 democrats?

Probably not. Fayard and Campbell are the front runners for the Democrats.

[Miles]

For the LA Congressional races:

LA-01: Rep. Steve Scalise, no doubt relived after dodging a bullet from a potential David Duke challenge, should easily clear 60% against a trio of Some Dude Democrats.

LA-02: It looks like outgoing Baton Rouge Mayor-President Kip Holden is following through with his run against Rep. Cedric Richmond. The race includes a third Some Dude Dem and a Libertarian. Richmond has geography and the state party on his side.

LA-03: Just after narrowly being squeezed out the LA Gov runoff, popular PSC member Scott Angelle is the favorite. Eight other Republicans are running, the most serious being State Rep. Frank Geymann and Bush - era Ambassador Grover Reeves. Two Democrats are running, but neither are credible. I'd guess that Angelle, from his crossover support, name rec, and emphasis of Cajun identity, finishes a strong first in the primary then goes into a runoff well-positioned.

LA-04: The main contest here will be the five-way Republican field. Dr. Trey Baucum has led in fundraising while State. Rep Mike Johnson and Shreveport Councilman Oliver Jenkins are also credible. The least serious Shreveport area Republican looks like attorney Rick John. From the district's very south end in St. Landry Parish, opportunist and self-serving fraud ex-State Sen. Elbert Guillory is running. Though Guillory is well known for his "look at me, everyone, I'm a black Republican!" speeches, he finished a very poor 4th in last year's LG primary. The only Democrat is attorney Marshall Jones.

LA-05: After a competitive 2014 primary, freshman Rep. Ralph Abraham is getting a pass. He only has one intraparty opponent, Billy Burkette, who lacks a campaign website.

LA-06: Rep. Garret Graves is popular in his district and should win without a runoff. He faces fellow Republican Bob Bell, who ran in the crowded 2014 field as well but took just 2%. On the Democratic side Richard Lieberman is another candidate from last cycle and is joined by Jermaine Sampson. Two third party candidates are running.

[Kingpoleon]

Would Fayard get enough female voters to be better in a runoff than Campbell?

[smoltchanov]

^ If they want to drop out, the candidates have a week after the close of filing (today) to request their name be removed from the ballot.

Personally, 7 Democrats is more than I'd like...

Much more. But if i understand correctly, Miles, only 2 of them (Campbell and Fayard) are more or less competitive now. Pellerin, probably, is too late to make substantial impact on race even if he begins to spend now. Others are "some dudes"...

On Republican side i see "big 3" - Kennedy, Boustany and Fleming. Then - Duke, Maness and Cao (who will not win but will influence outcome), and then - 3 "some dudes". BTW - too many  Republican candidates come from NO or its suburbs...

[Miles]

^ Democrats need Campbell and Fayard to split the Dem share about evenly to have a shot an intraparty runoff. Campbell has the north and can likely do well in the river parishes. There are rural blacks around that region plus a fair presence of working class whites that he can appeal to. Fayard gets the white liberal areas of Baton Rouge, plus the Landrieu's should help her in New Orleans.

Pellerin, being from Lafayette, is from a region where Democrats are declining, so he should have the smallest base to draw from between them. He's also competing with Hebert for votes, to some extent.

Gary Landrieu, despite his name, just got 12% in Orleans Parish the last time he ran for LA-02, so he shouldn't be much of a factor there. Actually, he did better in the Baton Rouge precincts.

Would Fayard get enough female voters to be better in a runoff than Campbell?

In an intraparty runoff? I think Campbell wins as he's a better fit for the state overall.

The stylistic difference between Campebell and Fayard almost reminds me of the 1996 Senate primary. The main Democrats were Richard Ieyoub (traditional populist Long-ite) and Mary Landrieu (women from bigger city perceived as more of a mainstream liberal).

[Kingpoleon]

Would Fayard get enough female voters to be better in a runoff than Campbell?

In an intraparty runoff? I think Campbell wins as he's a better fit for the state overall.

The stylistic difference between Campebell and Fayard almost reminds me of the 1996 Senate primary. The main Democrats were Richard Ieyoub (traditional populist Long-ite) and Mary Landrieu (women from bigger city perceived as more of a mainstream liberal).

No, against Kennedy or a Boustany or Fleming.

[Miles]

^ No, Campbell would still be the stronger candidate. Much of Fayard's coalition would migrate to him anyway but she wouldn't be able to get the votes he can out of northern LA.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I'll see how things shake out but assuming Cao isn't a frontrunner, my rather powerless endorsement for the jungle probably goes to Fayard.

[smoltchanov]

Well, when i try to calculate a probabilities of different runoffs. two most likely appear to be Kennedy or Boustany vs. Campbell. And both runoffs strongly leans republican.....

[136or142]

With David Duke getting in the race, and the popular John Kennedy also running, I think it would have been helpful to the Republicans and to Louisiana had Representatives John Fleming and Charles Boustany dropped out and ran for reelection instead.

I also haven't heard of anybody named 'Charles' since Chuck E Cheese went upscale and became Charles E Cheese III.

In another fast food restaurant matter, McDonald's is in some sort of legal trouble, Mayor McCheese has been indicted!

[Heisenberg]

With David Duke getting in the race, and the popular John Kennedy also running, I think it would have been helpful to the Republicans and to Louisiana had Representatives John Fleming and Charles Boustany dropped out and ran for reelection instead.

I also haven't heard of anybody named 'Charles' since Chuck E Cheese went upscale and became Charles E Cheese III.

In another fast food restaurant matter, McDonald's is in some sort of legal trouble, Mayor McCheese has been indicted!

How would Boustany do against Angelle? Fleming's race is divided, so he'd probably win. But it's too late now, right?

[Miles]

LA-Sen updates:

ex-Gov. Buddy Roemer endorses Kennedy, a fellow D-turned-R.

Popular Agriculture Commissioner Mike Strain supports Boustany.

[Heisenberg]

Just wondering, if Kennedy wins, who becomes Treasurer? Is there a special election, or does the governor appoint someone?

[Kingpoleon]

Just wondering, if Kennedy wins, who becomes Treasurer? Is there a special election, or does the governor appoint someone?

The Governor appoints someone temporarily until a special election occurs, if I understand correctly. As it stands, he might appoint Rosalind Peychaud, who was the former deputy chief of staff for Cao.

[smoltchanov]

Louisiana, with it's almost unique politics, takes special place in all my analysis. Hence - my preliminary evaluation of situation and forecasts for this year election (final, if nothing changes substatially, not so - in other case):

There are 7 main elections in Louisiana this year: for Senate and 6 House seats. 4 of them are rather readily predictable: in LA-01, 02, 05 and 06 incumbents (Scalise, Richmond, Abraham and Graves) are very heavily favored. Something very extraordinary must happen for that to change

LA-03 is (IMHO, as always) Angelle's to lose. Despite 12 candidates running. He may be forced into run-off (after all, there are 12 candidates for this seat), but i don't see a single one, which can create problems to him. If i understand correctly - he belongs to the same "school", as Boustany - conservative, but pragmatic enough...

LA-04: On one hand - even Obama got about 40% there, so - there is rather substantial Democratic base here. Whether it's enough - don't know, but, after looking for info on Marshall Jones - doubt it. Of 5 Republicans i know something about  Mike Johnson (very conservative tea party/freedom caucus style state representative), and former state Senator Elbert Guillory(who happens to be Black, switched parties few times, and may have some geographic advantage by being from far south-east of the district, but whose Lt. Governor campaign was absolute flop). I turn to Miles with request for info about other candidates (Baucum, Jenkins and John), especially - where they stand ideologically (obviously, all are conservatives, but for me there is still a difference between "standard establishment" types and tea party/freedom caucus types).

LA-Senate: IMHO, Kennedy has big advantages here. Despite 3 statewide losses (1991 for Attorney General, and 2004 for Senate as Democrat, 2008 for Senate as Republican) - 5 victories for state Treasurer (1999 and 2003 as Democrat, 2007, 2011 and 2015 as Republican) made him extremely well known (and, generally, popular) in the state. Politically he is also not that far from state "norm" - conservative, but pragmatic...

2 main opponents: Boustany and Campbell. First is, generally, "made of the same cloth" (pragmatic conservative, but - from Acadiana, and less well-known), second - typical "southern populist" (more liberal on economics, more conservative - on social issues), also very well-known after numerous races (state Senate, US House, Governor, PSC and so on). Lost at least 4 times (3 times for LA-04 and for Governor), but won a clear majority of his races.

Kennedy will be, probably, favored againt both, but if, somehow, runoff turns to be between Boustany and Campbell - i see tight race (thouh Boustany will, still, be somewhat favored)

Of other candidates (24 all) - Fayard, Fleming, Maness and Duke are, probably, most well-known. But - Fleming, Maness and Duke will seriously split far-right tea party/freedom caucus voting block, and Fayard, despite getting substantial vote from New Orlean area, is unlikely to surpass there "main" candidates. Cao and Hebert may influence results somewhat too, but have no chances. Other mostly belong to "some dudes" category, and their influence on election results will be minimal...

[windjammer]

Honestly,
I think Kennedy's lead is mostly because of name recognition, I'm not sure it's him who will win the race in the end.