LA and NC 2016 Congressional Races

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Thom Tillis's 37/48 favorability is just evidence that his election only happened due to 2014 having even lower turnout than 2010.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

PPP says that the approval for Senator Tillis (ugh that phrase just doesn't sound right) is underwater at 32/38. Thats actually more positive than I expected.

Still, it sort of mkaes you wonder how Hagan would have done against a Republican who wasn't as despised as Tillis. She would have likely lost by about the same margin she beat Dole by, instead of only 1.5%.

Not suprising on Tillis, considering he was elected with favorability in the high 30s.

I highly doubt that Hagan would have actually lost by 9 (the margin she beat Dole by), but I can definitely see a 5 or 6 point loss.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I got an email from Landrieu saying she'll be an energy advisor with a Washington DC firm. I guess that settles the question if she'll run again.

Well, it's not like she had much of a chance of victory anyways.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

We already know how the Congressional races for the next few cycles in Louisiana go. Democrats win LA-02, Republicans win everything else. If you want interesting areas to talk about, there's NH or upstate NY.

LA-04 might be an open seat next year (Fleming is high on the shortlist for potential Non-Vitter 2016 senate nominees), and is only R+13 (It's actually the only republican district less than R+15, looks like Jindal knows how to gerrymander.). Any chance it flips in a 2008-style wave?

Congressional races also includes the Senate. Democrats have a silm chance at winning Vitter's seat next year, as it will probably be a quasi-open seat (appointed senator due to Vitter winning Governorship), in which case the republican primary could be a real bloodbath. However, Democrats would need a great nominee to do it, and I'm not sure who they have beyond Mitch Landrieu and Cedric Richmond (D, LA-2), both of which seem unlikely to take the plunge.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

NC-Sen: Hagan out.

Not surprised given her favorability.

Unless Cowell changes her mind, this race is Likely R.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Who is still out there that could run and be credible?

McIntyre and Heath Shuler are often brought up, but they could have problems turning out the democratic base. Beyond that are a collection of untested pols with low to medium name recognition - senate minority leader Dan Blue, Mayor Allen Jones and State Sen. Josh Stein are mentioned most often.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

LA-Sen: Boustany is running. Possibility Vitter appoints a placeholder.

Showdown with Fleming?

Yes. Possibly John Kennedy as well.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

NC-Sen: Paywalled, but Shuler is exploring.

Endorsed!

I second that. D net 1

Thirded.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I'm going to file to run in NC-07. Down with the Rouzer.

Nice Sarcasm

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I'm going to file to run in NC-07. Down with the Rouzer.

Nice Sarcasm

What's sarcastic about that?

(nothing)

Wait, you're actually running?

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I'm going to file to run in NC-07. Down with the Rouzer.

Nice Sarcasm

What's sarcastic about that?

(nothing)

Wait, you're actually running?

That's what I just said.

Am I eligible? No. Will I win? No.

But will I try? Yes.

And since you aren't eligible, it is literally impossible for you to get on the ballot, so there seems to be no point in running at all.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

If Vitter loses, he'll definitely be a primary target, and Angelle (or Dardenne) would be in great position to take him on.

Angelle. Dardenne essentially burnt all bridges with his party by his very strong support of Edwards, and scathing criticism of both Vitter and Jindal. He will not be "forgiven"...

Even Republicans hate Jindal these days. And if Vitter loses this race, the party will disown him. He might stay on as a Senate backbencher due to LA being so republican, but no one will care about him anymore.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Potential option I'm thinking of since I don't know much about Louisiana politics - Jay Dardenne bolts to the Democrats to run for Senate. I'm not sure he could gain traction, but it would be an interesting thought if the Landrieu's decide to abandon all hope.

Dardenne has said that his endorsement of Edwards does not mean he is considering switching parties.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

^ And that just got a bit more likely, as Mitch Landrieu is out:

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He was probably the dems best hope here. Who's the next best? Cedric Richmond? One of the other Landrieu's?

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

ex-Rep. Joseph Cao (R) is also running for Vitter's seat.

Nice!

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

What are Maness's odds of making the runoff?

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I won't make an endorsement until closer to the jungle. You don't actually file for the race until September, I suspect some will opt out by then.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

LA-Sen: Fayard is launching her campaign.

This is exactly the sort of Democrat that at least has a chance in Louisiana.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

It's hard to imagine the sort of Democrat that would have a chance in LA-4, given it's a 59-40 Romney District. Yes, Edwards narrowly carried it, but he was running against an adulterer.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

NC-01/12: Well, this is quite something. CD's 1 and 12 have been struck down as racial gerrymanders by a three-judge USDC. The districts must be redrawn by November 19th.

Article says Feb. 19?

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Courts are just as partisan as anything else these days.  Every Democratic court's current pet project is to attack our districts.

Did it ever occur to you to ask why? I have to admit, your username does not lie. You are so overwhelmingly partisan about this stuff that you seem to give your party a free pass whenever it comes down to anything that might make them look corrupt.

Gerrymandering (which is partially natural due to Democrats packing into cities) helps the people, as it allows most people to be represented by people who share their values.

So, according to you, every person in North Carolina outside of the three carefully and ugily drawn VRA districts is a partisan republican like yourself? Oh my god you are terrible.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

^ Wow, Foster Campbell just announced he's running too!

Three Dems sounds like a great recipe for a republican vs. republican runoff.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

LA-03: Gov. Foster endorsing Angelle.

How popular is Foster these days?

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

^^ Meh. Campbell seems fine in terms of ideology but Fayard is probably more electable.


(Nope, this isn't an endorsement of Fayard. I'm undecided between her and Cao.)

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

^^ That would be above the intellectual ability of DWS.