LA and NC 2016 Congressional Races

[Kingpoleon]

Dems are best off to get Strickland, Kander & Hassan elected for the Senate majority.

You predicted Strickland would win by 5+ points in 2010. Nice try.


As far as Louisiana goes, I'd endorse Dardenne gladly.

[Kingpoleon]

Dardenne is a liberal Republican along the lines of Win Rockefeller. We're a dying breed in the South, but we still have some new blood like him.

#ReadyForJay2016

Besides that, I think Boustany, Cao, Angelle, and Kennedy are the only other good ones. As far as Democrats go here, Mayor Jacques Roy, (her brother)State Rep. Christopher Roy, Jr., and Don Cazayoux
seem like fairly strong non-Landrieu LA Dems.

[Kingpoleon]

ex-Rep. Joseph Cao (R) is also running for Vitter's seat.

He has a good chance if more Tea Partiers jump in.

[Kingpoleon]

^ He'd be the type of Democrat that could win. He also has nothing to lose, as he's termed out in 2019 anyway.

The ideal scenario for Dems would be an intraparty runoff with him and Gary Smith. Both are blue doggish and could most feasibly hold the seat going forward.

LaFleur probably runs if he doesn't get appointed Education Superintendent by JBE.

[Kingpoleon]

Endorsing: Cao>Herbert>Kennedy

[Kingpoleon]

^ Of course. You can't have a D vs D runoff if you only have one of them.

Would you prefer Campbell or Cao?

Judging by your previous politics, I thought you'd be more of a Kennedy or Cao voter.

[Kingpoleon]

Decision Desk calls NC3 for Jones. Woo!

Out of curiosity, are you supporting Cao for Senate, and if not, then who?

[Kingpoleon]

^ No one really knows whether 2015 Governor was a fluke because of Vitter or whether it means the state is purple (or purple-atlas blue) aside from the presidential race. The senate race will give us the answer.

Uh, yes we do? It was obviously a fluke. That's like saying we don't know if Massachusetts is still a blue state or not because they elected Baker.

Massachusetts electing a republican governor is nothing new. The only reason Deval Patrick got in is because Romney left office very unpopular. That state just LOVES republican governors.

With Louisiana, everyone was declaring the state to be "Finally, completely republican!" after a decent challenger against Vitter in 2010 went nowhere, Jindal won in an historic landslide in 2011, and Landrieu finally went down in 2014, and by a lot. But then Edwards emerges out of nowhere, and wins by the same margin Landrieu lost. Even with all of Vitter's baggage, Edwards was clearly a good candidate in his own right and did very good divorcing himself from the national party. When I try to think about how Edwards vs. Angelle would have gone, I'm honestly not confident giving an answer. Maybe 2010-2014 was just a string of good races for the state R party that actually don't mean much in the long run.

How would Edwards v. Dardenne go in your opinion?

[Kingpoleon]

Fayard and Cao are my favorites here. Campbell and Kennedy seem a little old.

[Kingpoleon]

Is Landrieu likely to get the most support out of the 7 democrats?

Probably not. Fayard and Campbell are the front runners for the Democrats.

[Kingpoleon]

Would Fayard get enough female voters to be better in a runoff than Campbell?

[Kingpoleon]

Would Fayard get enough female voters to be better in a runoff than Campbell?

In an intraparty runoff? I think Campbell wins as he's a better fit for the state overall.

The stylistic difference between Campebell and Fayard almost reminds me of the 1996 Senate primary. The main Democrats were Richard Ieyoub (traditional populist Long-ite) and Mary Landrieu (women from bigger city perceived as more of a mainstream liberal).

No, against Kennedy or a Boustany or Fleming.

[Kingpoleon]

Just wondering, if Kennedy wins, who becomes Treasurer? Is there a special election, or does the governor appoint someone?

The Governor appoints someone temporarily until a special election occurs, if I understand correctly. As it stands, he might appoint Rosalind Peychaud, who was the former deputy chief of staff for Cao.

[Kingpoleon]

Just wondering, if Kennedy wins, who becomes Treasurer? Is there a special election, or does the governor appoint someone?

The Governor appoints someone temporarily until a special election occurs, if I understand correctly. As it stands, he might appoint Rosalind Peychaud, who was the former deputy chief of staff for Cao.

Why wouldn't he appoint an actual Democrat?

Peychaud is a Democrat - a former State Representative. Cao's tenure in the House was strange ideologically.

[Kingpoleon]

After doing some quick read throughout of Louisiana Democrats for a potential Treasurer, Marc Morial, former NO Mayor and current President of the National Urban League, has a bachelor's degree in Economics and is only 58. Morial serves on the Presidential Advisory Council on Financial Accountability. He also was a member of the Debt Reduction Task Force for the Bipartisan Policy Center.

[Kingpoleon]

Yeah, Atlas posters who announce their "official endorsements" of any candidate...

I officially endorse you for President of the Middle School Sarcasm Club.

[Kingpoleon]

Fayard seems a bit more promising, IMO.