LA and NC 2016 Congressional Races

[Miles]

Well, here we go!

Republicans: Congratulations! You ran the table this past cycle.

Democrats: Congratulations! Things can pretty much only get better.


Despite signals to the contrary over the past years, it appears Burr is gearing up to run again.

LA will be really linked with the Governor's much. At the moment, its more likely than not that the Republican running in 2016 won't be Vitter.

[Miles]

My guess would be Fleming. Vitter had to promise him something so that he wouldn't run for Landrieu's seat (against Cassidy) this year.

[Miles]

See, I called it on Fleming!

Don't retiring/outgoing Senators usually get at least some approval bump on their way out? Hagan's still at 39/52

[Miles]

Thom Tillis's 37/48 favorability is just evidence that his election only happened due to 2014 having even lower turnout than 2010.

Not in North Carolina. Hagan and Obama had double digit disapprovals.

In fairness, it was up just very slightly (44.4% vs 43.8%).

Before the election, PPP had Hagan at only -8. Its odd you see a Senator's number get worse after a bitter election than going into it.

[Miles]

And why not Heath Schuler?

Because he became a lobbyist after pledging he wouldn't. The attack ad writes itself.

[Miles]

^ There's been suggestions on RRH about McIntyre switching parties and running statewide as a Republican. I don't think it happens, but its an interesting idea.

I think if he switched parties, he would have almost certainly done it before redistricting.

[Miles]

^ I saw that yesterday and waited to see how big a story it became before posting; I wanted to make sure it wasn't a questionable hit piece or anything. Its getting a lot more traction that I expected.

[Miles]

I listened to Duke's radio show to see if he had anything to say about this, but nothing today. His shows are tapped in the morning, while most of this broke out in the afternoon; I guess he'll be talking about it tomorrow. I doubt he'll be very sympathetic to Scalise, given how they disagree strongly on Duke's #1 issue, Israel/Zionism.

[Miles]

Well, we'll see if he elaborates any tomorrow on his own terms.

[Miles]

Yep, Burr is definitely running again.

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[Miles]

NC State Rep. Paul Tine, who holds a mildly R-leaning Outer Banks seat, is switching from Democrat to Independent and will caucus with Republicans.

Electorally, its not like he needed to switch; he was reeleted pretty comfortably (by about 7%) as a Democrat last year. Whats even wackier is that when they ask him what his top issues are, he says Medicaid expansion and public education. Something seems kinda off about this.

In any case, I thought he'd be a top-tier Democratic recruit if NC-03 became open, as Jones should be on retirement watch. Damn.

[Miles]

Fleming will 'absolutely' run for Senate if Vitter becomes Governor.

More importantly:

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[Miles]

NC-04: If David Price, who's on retirement watch as it is, actually ends up not running, one prospect may be that Clay Akin tries to make an, er, encore. Still, I think an open NC-04 would be Brad Miller's if he wanted it.

[Miles]

I'm not sure where this is from:

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North Star did a Governor poll last week, so I'm assuming this is from that.

[Miles]

Burr is gettin the ball rolling on reelection with campaign staff and events.

[Miles]

FWIW, I got an email from Mark Harris knocking Ellmers. He's from the wrong part of the state to run against her himself, but she's definitely looking pretty vulnerable, ATM.

[Miles]

LA-01: David Duke is threatening to run against Scalise (*grabbing my popcorn*):

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I was expecting Duke to mention their differences on foreign policy as the main sticking point, but this is why Duke is most frustrated:

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He's also made similar criticizisms of Vitter in the past; that he's co-opted Duke's discourse/ideas for his own personal ends.  

[Miles]

NC-Sen: One of the reasons Burr was on retirement watch for the past few years was because of his relatively low fundraising; looks like he's quickly moving to fix that:

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[Miles]

Well, look at that...

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[Miles]

From PPP: Burr approvals same as ever, 34/35/31.

Burr- 45%
Cowell- 38%

Burr- 47%
Foxx- 38%

Burr- 48%
Hagan- 42%

Burr- 44%
McIntyre- 37%

Burr- 44%
Ross- 35%

The Democrats are mostly unkown, too, except for Hagan at 38/54

[Miles]

^ Thom Tillis' NC: tar in the heels but no soap on the hands!

[Miles]

NC-Sen: We have a new poll out from Meeting Street Research, dated late January. If you haven't heard of them, neither have I. DKE says the guy who leads this firm was from R-leaning Public Opinion Strategies.

In any case, Burr leads Hagan 49/45, which is similar to PPP. Cooper isn't running for Senate, but they also tested him; he trails 44/41.

[Miles]

PPP says that the approval for Senator Tillis (ugh that phrase just doesn't sound right) is underwater at 32/38. Thats actually more positive than I expected.

Still, it sort of mkaes you wonder how Hagan would have done against a Republican who wasn't as despised as Tillis. She would have likely lost by about the same margin she beat Dole by, instead of only 1.5%.

[Miles]

^ I probably should have said that it would have been possible, but towards the lower end for her

I could have seen that being the case if McCrory passed on Governor in 2012 and ran against her, but thats really getting into hypotheticals.

[Miles]

Passings: Cass Ballenger, who represented NC-10 from 1986 to 2004, has died at 88. Before that he was in the Assembly and held office in western NC for almost 40 years altogether. RIP.