Nightmare Senate Scenario for Dems

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

2016 is a lot like 2014. A decent year Hilary is set to help Dems pickup IL, WI, PA, and NH.  But, AK, NC, FL and OH are also vulnerable and with a strong VP candidate we can hold NV and CO.  The Dems may pick up anywhere between 2-6 seats.

And also, 2018 isn't so bad either, there are gubernatorial seats that the GOP are term limited in.  We should do very well in IL, MD, and ME and tossups in WI, MI, OH and FL, which may bold well. And Hilary is more political astute than Obama was, and will do everything she can to not let the G O P recapture the senate again.

Gains in AK, IL, PA, Wi and FL are very duable and with loses in 2018, MO and WVA is duable by the GOP.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Rubio, Murkowski, Johnson, Kirk, Ayotte and Toomey are rype for the picking if we have any chance of holding onto the senate in 2018, due to possible Claire McCaskill and Joe Manchin retirements.  Whereas Portman and Burr may withstand the Hilary coattails and win.  Likes of Madigan and Sestak will be also assisted by Clinton winning those states with 55-58% of the vote. 


So, any crossover appeal that Kirk and Toomey has may be bombarded by the Hilary Juggernaunt in IL and PA. And as usually Clintons do very well in FL, which may be the tipping point senate race, and I hope Gwen Graham gets into it and the same can be said  in AK.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The red states are the states that Clinton can improve on Obama's 2012 by 3%, that's why these states are critical for Dems to seize control of Senate. As far as NH and CO, a good VP pick can help Clinton in those states as well. I can see Clinton matching Obama's 2008 performance in NV and WI by winning those by 10 and IL and PA with 55-58%, and AK may be the Wildcard for a max net gain of 6 seats.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Should we get a wave going into the House of above 10 seats, Dems can certainly get 4 or more seats, but surely, we must get that wave going. Burr can be our 5th pickup, due to our governor chances in NC, in 2016.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Dems are starring at two retirements, possibly in Manchin and Mc Caskill. But we are set to make Gov gains in IL, WI, MI, MD, and MA. While FL and OH will be tossups. The Dems need to net at least 5 or mor more Senate seats to have any chance of keeping the senate, but clearly, I think those seats are toast, just like they will be in 2016 gov elections, with a possibility of trying to knock off McCrory and Heller.