Nightmare Senate Scenario for Dems

[Vosem]

2018 with Hillary will be ugly, but I don't see any way there wouldn't be a net gain for the Democrats in 2016.

Not that difficult -- NV is a 50/50 proposition at best, and CO is definitely vulnerable. None of the Republican seats look like they will be gimmes, like MT/WV were this year. Democrats are definitely heavily favored to take seats in 2016, but it's the way Republicans were heavily favored to gain seats in 2012 -- the chance of it not occurring exists.

And under a Republican Presidency, 2018 could be a net loss of seats too. Only MO looks like a really certain GOP pickup, and in a good Democratic year it's plausible y'all could gain AZ and NV and hold your vulnerable Northern seats.

[Vosem]

2018 with Hillary will be ugly, but I don't see any way there wouldn't be a net gain for the Democrats in 2016.

Not that difficult -- NV is a 50/50 proposition at best, and CO is definitely vulnerable. None of the Republican seats look like they will be gimmes, like MT/WV were this year. Democrats are definitely heavily favored to take seats in 2016, but it's the way Republicans were heavily favored to gain seats in 2012 -- the chance of it not occurring exists.

And under a Republican Presidency, 2018 could be a net loss of seats too. Only MO looks like a really certain GOP pickup, and in a good Democratic year it's plausible y'all could gain AZ and NV and hold your vulnerable Northern seats.

Bennet ain't losing if Hillary is winning the state.

Hasn't PPP shown Hillary barely leading Ted Cruz in Colorado? That's by no means guaranteed. Hillary is significantly weaker in CO than Obama.

Frighteningly plausible. Hell, Toomey and Johnson could pull it out.

I'd like to see what a Johnson/Hillary Clinton voter looks like.

Maybe similar to a Gore/Santorum voter in 2000?

Santorum was a populist and friendly with the unions.
Johnson is a hardcore tea-partier that has nothing to show during his first 4 years as a senator other that partisan attacks and gridlock.

That's what a bit more than half the typical Wisconsin electorate is looking for, so I don't know why you expect them to hold it against Johnson.

And under a Republican Presidency, 2018 could be a net loss of seats too. Only MO looks like a really certain GOP pickup, and in a good Democratic year it's plausible y'all could gain AZ and NV and hold your vulnerable Northern seats.

I dunno, a lot of states in 2010 went Republican when they logically should have went Democratic after 2008, so...

Why? 2010 was a midterm under a Democratic Presidency. Losses were to be expected, even if the size might not have been anticipated prior to Scott Brown's victory. If 2018 is also a midterm under a Democratic presidency, it'll probably look like 2010/2014. If it is a Republican midterm, Democrats might enjoy a small pickup.

[Vosem]

Nightmare scenario is this

Obama approvals down to the upper 20s low 30s in 2016.

Republicans lose Nothing while they gain Nevada Colorado

After 2016 that puts it as
Rep 56 Dem 44

Then in 2018 The republican president is as popular as Bush was in 2002 and Clinton in 1998
They gain Indiana, Missouri, Virginia,Ohio, Pennsilvania, Wisconson, Montana, West Virginia
Put it at
Rep 64 Dem 36

But the possibility of this happening are next to nothing 

LOL! The possibility of that happening is ZERO.
First of all, NO REPUBLICAN can win in 2016. Whether Hillary is the nominee or not.

Why is that?
 

Secondly, they won't gain Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, West Virginia and Ohio. Not enough racist, old rednecks there.

Why? We gained PA and WI in 2010, and WV in 2014. We narrowly missed out on gaining OH in 2012 (50-44), but we absolutely destroyed in every Ohio statewide election in 2014. Baldwin and Manchin will be vulnerable almost no matter what in 2018, and Casey and Brown will certainly receive a strong challenge if it is a good year for Republicans. In 2012 (a presidential Democratic victory), we won the statewide House of Representatives vote in OH, WV, and WI; I think we missed out on PA, but we definitely won it in 2014. All of these states are within reach for the GOP.
 

Thirdly, a Republican president wouldn't be popular.

Uh, why is that?