CA-Sen: California Quake

[LeBron]

Didn't see it posted anywhere, but Kashkari is out of the running.

http://www.cnn.com/2015/02/07/politics/2016-california-senate-neel-kashkari/index.html

I could see him making another run for governor if a Democratic administration implodes. But if there's ever an opportunity like that, he'd probably get trampled by Issa, McClintock, Hunter, or Royce.

Excellent news! That means a real candidate can run here!

Like a self-funder? I don't see any established Republican career politician who would run for this seat.

Issa could at make it competitive...and that's all Republicans should ask for right now.

No way. That's like the Ohio GOP running Jim Renacci statewide. Sure they have a ton of cash to spend, but that's their only benefit. They both have horrible baggage and views. Issa would get trampled if he ran and Renacci would either lose or underperform.

No Republican can beat Harris one on one in 2016. They should just run a somebody and save the strong recruits for 2018 which might be a more favorable environment for the CA GOP.

[IceSpear]

Didn't see it posted anywhere, but Kashkari is out of the running.

http://www.cnn.com/2015/02/07/politics/2016-california-senate-neel-kashkari/index.html

I could see him making another run for governor if a Democratic administration implodes. But if there's ever an opportunity like that, he'd probably get trampled by Issa, McClintock, Hunter, or Royce.

Excellent news! That means a real candidate can run here!

Like a self-funder? I don't see any established Republican career politician who would run for this seat.

Issa could at make it competitive...and that's all Republicans should ask for right now.

NYE pls

[Maxwell]

Didn't see it posted anywhere, but Kashkari is out of the running.

http://www.cnn.com/2015/02/07/politics/2016-california-senate-neel-kashkari/index.html

I could see him making another run for governor if a Democratic administration implodes. But if there's ever an opportunity like that, he'd probably get trampled by Issa, McClintock, Hunter, or Royce.

Excellent news! That means a real candidate can run here!

Like a self-funder? I don't see any established Republican career politician who would run for this seat.

Yes, a self-funder. But most importantly, someone not as terrible as Neel Kashkari.

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

Didn't see it posted anywhere, but Kashkari is out of the running.

http://www.cnn.com/2015/02/07/politics/2016-california-senate-neel-kashkari/index.html

I could see him making another run for governor if a Democratic administration implodes. But if there's ever an opportunity like that, he'd probably get trampled by Issa, McClintock, Hunter, or Royce.

Excellent news! That means a real candidate can run here!

Like a self-funder? I don't see any established Republican career politician who would run for this seat.

Yes, a self-funder. But most importantly, someone not as terrible as Neel Kashkari.

I think he's a much better candidate than Carly or Meg, he just didn't have the money they did.

[Vosem]

Republican chances here are very low, but the NRSC basically has two ways to attack this race. Way 1 is to find some very good, probably self-funding Republican candidate, clear the Republican field, and then hope they can beat Harris in the general election. This is very doubtful. Way 2 is to find two candidates, geographically disparate, one establishment and one TP, and then hope they split the vote evenly enough that they can keep Harris out. This is a long-shot, but I'm quite confident it's less of a longshot than trying to beat Harris head-on like an elephant is. If the NRSC is going with Way 1, a Tim Donnelly candidacy is a problem to be dealt with; if they're going with Way 2, he's just what the doctor ordered. A tiny bit less than half the GOP love him, and a tiny bit more than half hate him. He can split the vote with Swearengin, get both of them to November, and then send her to the Senate.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Republican chances here are very low, but the NRSC basically has two ways to attack this race. Way 1 is to find some very good, probably self-funding Republican candidate, clear the Republican field, and then hope they can beat Harris in the general election. This is very doubtful. Way 2 is to find two candidates, geographically disparate, one establishment and one TP, and then hope they split the vote evenly enough that they can keep Harris out. This is a long-shot, but I'm quite confident it's less of a longshot than trying to beat Harris head-on like an elephant is. If the NRSC is going with Way 1, a Tim Donnelly candidacy is a problem to be dealt with; if they're going with Way 2, he's just what the doctor ordered. A tiny bit less than half the GOP love him, and a tiny bit more than half hate him. He can split the vote with Swearengin, get both of them to November, and then send her to the Senate.

Tim Donnelly could only poll about 15% in the 2014 gubernatorial primary. With a more competent mainstream opponent, I think he'd be lucky to reach 15% again. I don't think that Donnelly would make the top two, especially if there are 2 decent Democrats running (If they could each get about 25%, they would still beat Donnelly and one would place in the top two against the more mainstream Republican.

Here's the 2014 Primary:
https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?fips=6&year=2014&f=0&off=5&elect=5

[Maxwell]

Didn't see it posted anywhere, but Kashkari is out of the running.

http://www.cnn.com/2015/02/07/politics/2016-california-senate-neel-kashkari/index.html

I could see him making another run for governor if a Democratic administration implodes. But if there's ever an opportunity like that, he'd probably get trampled by Issa, McClintock, Hunter, or Royce.

Excellent news! That means a real candidate can run here!

Like a self-funder? I don't see any established Republican career politician who would run for this seat.

Yes, a self-funder. But most importantly, someone not as terrible as Neel Kashkari.

I think he's a much better candidate than Carly or Meg, he just didn't have the money they did.

I mean, yes, Carly was a complete disaster, but Kashkari was worse than Meg. Did you see that drowning kid ad?

[Vosem]

I think Donnelly could do better if his establishment Republican opponent wasn't trying to attack him during the primary, but you do have a point that there are better candidates out there. Well, the CAGOP has to deal with the cards it's been dealt.

The big problem of the 2014 gubernatorial primary was the 6% that went to minor Republican candidates. That can't be allowed to be repeated. Open Campaigns is down right now, so I can't look up how it is geographically that Daniel Evans performed in the 2014 Comptroller open primary, which was less than a percentage point off from being perfect.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

I think Donnelly could do better if his establishment Republican opponent wasn't trying to attack him during the primary, but you do have a point that there are better candidates out there. Well, the CAGOP has to deal with the cards it's been dealt.

The big problem of the 2014 gubernatorial primary was the 6% that went to minor Republican candidates. That can't be allowed to be repeated. Open Campaigns is down right now, so I can't look up how it is geographically that Daniel Evans performed in the 2014 Comptroller open primary, which was less than a percentage point off from being perfect.

I found a site called "Our Campaigns," which had the results here: http://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=726292

Ashley Swearengin won with only 24.79% compared with Daniel Evans's 4th place finish with 21.05%. That race was a mess. It is possible that there could be a repeat, but I kind of doubt that there will be as many candidates by the time the filing date comes around. If more candidates stay in, the winner might not break 20%.

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

I think Donnelly could do better if his establishment Republican opponent wasn't trying to attack him during the primary, but you do have a point that there are better candidates out there. Well, the CAGOP has to deal with the cards it's been dealt.

The big problem of the 2014 gubernatorial primary was the 6% that went to minor Republican candidates. That can't be allowed to be repeated. Open Campaigns is down right now, so I can't look up how it is geographically that Daniel Evans performed in the 2014 Comptroller open primary, which was less than a percentage point off from being perfect.

I found a site called "Our Campaigns," which had the results here: http://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=726292

Ashley Swearengin won with only 24.79% compared with Daniel Evans's 4th place finish with 21.05%. That race was a mess. It is possible that there could be a repeat, but I kind of doubt that there will be as many candidates by the time the filing date comes around. If more candidates stay in, the winner might not break 20%.

What needs to happen for Republicans is to run one Republican from the north/central valley and another from the south, all in a low turnout year (like CA 2014).

Theoretically, If Swearengin ran again without Evans, she should pick up the most support from the northeast corner, which Evans swept. Then run a Republican like Kevin Faulconer (RINO alert) who has the ability to win in usually Democratic San Diego, and would assumedly perform well in Orange County. Abysmal turnout in Los Angeles, throw in a Green Party/more random Democrats to siphon off Bay Area support, and bam, you've got yourself a R vs R election.

[Vosem]

I think Donnelly could do better if his establishment Republican opponent wasn't trying to attack him during the primary, but you do have a point that there are better candidates out there. Well, the CAGOP has to deal with the cards it's been dealt.

The big problem of the 2014 gubernatorial primary was the 6% that went to minor Republican candidates. That can't be allowed to be repeated. Open Campaigns is down right now, so I can't look up how it is geographically that Daniel Evans performed in the 2014 Comptroller open primary, which was less than a percentage point off from being perfect.

I found a site called "Our Campaigns," which had the results here: http://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=726292

Ashley Swearengin won with only 24.79% compared with Daniel Evans's 4th place finish with 21.05%. That race was a mess. It is possible that there could be a repeat, but I kind of doubt that there will be as many candidates by the time the filing date comes around. If more candidates stay in, the winner might not break 20%.

What needs to happen for Republicans is to run one Republican from the north/central valley and another from the south, all in a low turnout year (like CA 2014).

Theoretically, If Swearengin ran again without Evans, she should pick up the most support from the northeast corner, which Evans swept. Then run a Republican like Kevin Faulconer (RINO alert) who has the ability to win in usually Democratic San Diego, and would assumedly perform well in Orange County. Abysmal turnout in Los Angeles, throw in a Green Party/more random Democrats to siphon off Bay Area support, and bam, you've got yourself a R vs R election.

Faulconer won't run, since he'll be seeking reelection in 2016. Swearengin v. DeMaio (for example) would be absolutely fantastic, since we'd also get to take revenge on Scott Peters' horrible smear campaign last year. But I don't think any prominent San Diego or Orange County Republicans are running.

The question, to some extent, is whether Donnelly can repeat Evans' performance from 2014. In the gubernatorial race, due to the preponderance of minor candidates, Jerry Brown's popularity, and the fact that they were largely attacking each other, the two main Republican candidates combined for only 33% of the vote. That number will be much greater in 2016, since they will have an incentive to cooperate and no popular Democratic incumbent running; it should be 45-46% at the least, assuming minor candidates can be kept out. So Donnelly should be able to make it into the low 20s, which could be enough assuming the Democratic vote is split right.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

I think Donnelly could do better if his establishment Republican opponent wasn't trying to attack him during the primary, but you do have a point that there are better candidates out there. Well, the CAGOP has to deal with the cards it's been dealt.

The big problem of the 2014 gubernatorial primary was the 6% that went to minor Republican candidates. That can't be allowed to be repeated. Open Campaigns is down right now, so I can't look up how it is geographically that Daniel Evans performed in the 2014 Comptroller open primary, which was less than a percentage point off from being perfect.

I found a site called "Our Campaigns," which had the results here: http://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=726292

Ashley Swearengin won with only 24.79% compared with Daniel Evans's 4th place finish with 21.05%. That race was a mess. It is possible that there could be a repeat, but I kind of doubt that there will be as many candidates by the time the filing date comes around. If more candidates stay in, the winner might not break 20%.

What needs to happen for Republicans is to run one Republican from the north/central valley and another from the south, all in a low turnout year (like CA 2014).

Theoretically, If Swearengin ran again without Evans, she should pick up the most support from the northeast corner, which Evans swept. Then run a Republican like Kevin Faulconer (RINO alert) who has the ability to win in usually Democratic San Diego, and would assumedly perform well in Orange County. Abysmal turnout in Los Angeles, throw in a Green Party/more random Democrats to siphon off Bay Area support, and bam, you've got yourself a R vs R election.

Faulconer won't run, since he'll be seeking reelection in 2016. Swearengin v. DeMaio (for example) would be absolutely fantastic, since we'd also get to take revenge on Scott Peters' horrible smear campaign last year. But I don't think any prominent San Diego or Orange County Republicans are running.

The question, to some extent, is whether Donnelly can repeat Evans' performance from 2014. In the gubernatorial race, due to the preponderance of minor candidates, Jerry Brown's popularity, and the fact that they were largely attacking each other, the two main Republican candidates combined for only 33% of the vote. That number will be much greater in 2016, since they will have an incentive to cooperate and no popular Democratic incumbent running; it should be 45-46% at the least, assuming minor candidates can be kept out. So Donnelly should be able to make it into the low 20s, which could be enough assuming the Democratic vote is split right.

That is a fair point. It was basically a fight for the right to be the sacrificial lamb and people were generally happy with Brown; the Controller's seat was open. The seemingly minor candidates could be beneficial for either party. In the controller's race, they held about 10% and they got 11% in the governor's race. That's a lot if we're looking at the top two getting in the low to mid twenties.

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

The question, to some extent, is whether Donnelly can repeat Evans' performance from 2014. In the gubernatorial race, due to the preponderance of minor candidates, Jerry Brown's popularity, and the fact that they were largely attacking each other, the two main Republican candidates combined for only 33% of the vote. That number will be much greater in 2016, since they will have an incentive to cooperate and no popular Democratic incumbent running; it should be 45-46% at the least, assuming minor candidates can be kept out. So Donnelly should be able to make it into the low 20s, which could be enough assuming the Democratic vote is split right.

I just chose Faulconer because he was the first high-profile San Diego Republican that came to mind when I was inventing a plausible R vs R scenario. Someone along those lines was the idea though.

Obviously, I'm on the other side about the DeMaio race, but his political career is (likely) over. The sexual harassment incidents/allegations aside, he had two pretty big high profile losses that'll take time to recover from. All his future opponents (including Republican primary candidates) just have to do this and he's done.

[Edit]: Can anyone find a county map for the 2014 Gubernatorial primary? Since the Secretary of State's site was updated, I can't find the maps.

[Vosem]

The question, to some extent, is whether Donnelly can repeat Evans' performance from 2014. In the gubernatorial race, due to the preponderance of minor candidates, Jerry Brown's popularity, and the fact that they were largely attacking each other, the two main Republican candidates combined for only 33% of the vote. That number will be much greater in 2016, since they will have an incentive to cooperate and no popular Democratic incumbent running; it should be 45-46% at the least, assuming minor candidates can be kept out. So Donnelly should be able to make it into the low 20s, which could be enough assuming the Democratic vote is split right.

I just chose Faulconer because he was the first high-profile San Diego Republican that came to mind when I was inventing a plausible R vs R scenario. Someone along those lines was the idea though.

Obviously, I'm on the other side about the DeMaio race, but his political career is (likely) over. The sexual harassment incidents/allegations aside, he had two pretty big high profile losses that'll take time to recover from. All his future opponents (including Republican primary candidates) just have to do this and he's done.

You're probably right about DeMaio's career being over, unfortunately, but one can always hope for a comeback, however slim the chance. Or at least for someone else to beat that bastard Scott Peters.

[Edit]: Can anyone find a county map for the 2014 Gubernatorial primary? Since the Secretary of State's site was updated, I can't find the maps.

There's one on Our Campaigns: http://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=701432

Brown won every county except Modoc and Lassen in the northeast, which were both won by Donnelly, even though he's actually from San Bernardino County; that's just an area that's very friendly to TP politicians. Many of Brown's victories were with as little as 32-33% of the vote. He was held to below 30% only in Modoc, where Donnelly beat him 40-28, Kashkari trailing with 13 and minor Republican candidates combining for 18%. That's unconscionable.

[DrScholl]

Why's he got to be a bastard? That's incredibly harsh. Scott Peters is a good fit for that district, that's why he won, but that's not the topic at hand. Carl DeMaio wouldn't get much traction statewide, especially since donors wouldn't really be willing to put down money on a liability for a long shot race.

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

Duf Sundheim and Tom Del Beccaro, two former chairs of the California Republican Party, considering a run. Tim Donnelly currently a "maybe."

Assemblyman Rocky Chavez, a Republican, is mentioned and would probably be a good statewide candidate at some point, but not for this seat in a presidential year against Harris. A Latino, he is strong on veterans issues and served in the military.

If Villaraigosa runs, he'll nullify Chavez's Latino advantage, and they'll both be steamrolled by Harris.

[Miles]

This is a sort of a roundabout way to poll, but instead of running head-to-heads, the Field Poll asked respondents who they'd be 'inclined' to support. Condi (49/39) and Harris (46/37) were the highest overall.

With Democrats, 74% are 'inclined' to support Harris, with Villaraigosa at 57%.

[Suburbia]

If Rice runs for Senate, I see California being competitive at the presidential level.

[IceSpear]

If Rice runs for Senate, I see California being competitive at the presidential level.

Then you may need to get your eyesight checked.

[Negusa Nagast 🚀]

If Rice runs for Senate, I see California being competitive at the presidential level.

Republicans have torched any chance of winning California on the presidential level for a generation.

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

If Rice runs for Senate, I see California being competitive at the presidential level.

Just run one ad that shows Condi's picture with a voice over whispering 'Iraq... Iraq... Iraq...' over and over and she'll lose 60-40.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

This is a sort of a roundabout way to poll, but instead of running head-to-heads, the Field Poll asked respondents who they'd be 'inclined' to support. Condi (49/39) and Harris (46/37) were the highest overall.

With Democrats, 74% are 'inclined' to support Harris, with Villaraigosa at 57%.

The stupid hurts bad. DiFi is enough of a warmonger. We don't need the world's biggest lying warmonger, Rice.

[The Other Castro]

If Rice runs for Senate, I see California being competitive at the presidential level.

That's not how coattails work

[Miles]

Republicans are trying to draft David Dreier.

[Free Bird]

Republicans are trying to draft David Dreier.

To have a lamb with a bit more meat?