CA-Sen: California Quake

[coloradocowboi]

I think Harris does have a lock because she should be able to lock down the North--as someone said earlier--and siphon off non-Latino votes in LA county with pretty minimal resources. It's hard to see anyone beating her unless Villaraigosa goes very negative. I don't see that happening, but he could. This would probably just get the two of them to the finish where she would win all the Rs and clobber him.

TBH, I think that the sample size isn't that erroneous though because these are likely primary voters, so they probably lean more R.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

PPP found McClintock 28, Harris 27, Kashkari 12, everyone else in single digits. No Becerra/Villaraigosa/Steyer.

Steyer's team calls him Cincinnatus. In the fine self-funding tradition, of course.

I don't think they had a good sample for their survey:

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That sounds about right. Our June elections heavily favor Republicans.

Loretta Sanchez is seriously considering, from her facebook page

I don't think Harris has this locked down quite yet. Sanchez would be more formidable as a Hispanic opposition than Villarigosa.

Hell no to a blue dog!

[Miles]

Not that she looked particuarly eager to run, but Karen Bass isn't running.

[IceSpear]

PPP found McClintock 28, Harris 27, Kashkari 12, everyone else in single digits. No Becerra/Villaraigosa/Steyer.

Steyer's team calls him Cincinnatus. In the fine self-funding tradition, of course.

I don't think they had a good sample for their survey:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

That sounds about right. Our June elections heavily favor Republicans.

Loretta Sanchez is seriously considering, from her facebook page

I don't think Harris has this locked down quite yet. Sanchez would be more formidable as a Hispanic opposition than Villarigosa.

Hell no to a blue dog!

It says RVs though, not primary LVs.

[Sbane]

Why are people thinking Harris won't do well with Latinos? They have no reason not to support her. She has been very friendly on immigrant rights issues and herself is a child of immigrants. If anything, this should attract Latinos to her candidacy. Furthermore, Latinos will only make up about 30-35% of the Democratic voting electorate in the primary, so while their vote is crucial, it doesn't necessarily determine who wins the primary.

[LeBron]

Harris keeps on racking in endorsements from the Northeast, with endorsements from Gillibrand and Booker. She also received a pretty big endorsement from CA Speaker Toni Atkins who became the first openly gay governor of the state for a day last year, and was on the CA-Sen potential list.

So the way it looks now, there's roughly 4 declared Dems (Harris, Villaraigosa, Steyer, Sanchez), and zero Republicans.

Sundheim, Chavez and Ose seem to be the most likely picks for Republicans, but given the state and climate they'll get one spot in the general at best. As long as the DSCC makes sure Harris makes it to the general, then all's good.

[badgate]

Harris keeps on racking in endorsements from the Northeast, with endorsements from Gillibrand and Booker. She also received a pretty big endorsement from CA Speaker Toni Atkins who became the first openly gay governor of the state for a day last year, and was on the CA-Sen potential list.

That doesn't count.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Harris keeps on racking in endorsements from the Northeast, with endorsements from Gillibrand and Booker. She also received a pretty big endorsement from CA Speaker Toni Atkins who became the first openly gay governor of the state for a day last year, and was on the CA-Sen potential list.

That doesn't count.

Acting governor. I remember that it went all the way down to 3rd in line due to out of state trips.

[Maxwell]

PPP found McClintock 28, Harris 27, Kashkari 12, everyone else in single digits. No Becerra/Villaraigosa/Steyer.

Steyer's team calls him Cincinnatus. In the fine self-funding tradition, of course.

I don't think they had a good sample for their survey:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

It may be too Republican leaning, but that means it's good news for Democrats in terms of avoiding a primary disaster.

With Harris running there's absolutely no chance of a primary disaster for the Dems.  A D vs D general election seems far more likely IMO.

A D v. D general? That's a joke.

How is it a joke?  If no prominent Republicans run, I think there's a good chance that a Democrat will win second place in the primary.
And I agree that it's far from a done deal that Harris will win.  If the general election is Harris vs Sanchez, Sanchez could win.

Even if a not prominent Republican runs, the Republicans probably get, what, 40% of the vote in the low turnout scenario? I think it's unlikely Democrats pull out second person.

[IceSpear]

PPP found McClintock 28, Harris 27, Kashkari 12, everyone else in single digits. No Becerra/Villaraigosa/Steyer.

Steyer's team calls him Cincinnatus. In the fine self-funding tradition, of course.

I don't think they had a good sample for their survey:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

It may be too Republican leaning, but that means it's good news for Democrats in terms of avoiding a primary disaster.

With Harris running there's absolutely no chance of a primary disaster for the Dems.  A D vs D general election seems far more likely IMO.

A D v. D general? That's a joke.

How is it a joke?  If no prominent Republicans run, I think there's a good chance that a Democrat will win second place in the primary.
And I agree that it's far from a done deal that Harris will win.  If the general election is Harris vs Sanchez, Sanchez could win.

Even if a not prominent Republican runs, the Republicans probably get, what, 40% of the vote in the low turnout scenario? I think it's unlikely Democrats pull out second person.

It depends how many Republicans decide to run.

[Maxwell]

PPP found McClintock 28, Harris 27, Kashkari 12, everyone else in single digits. No Becerra/Villaraigosa/Steyer.

Steyer's team calls him Cincinnatus. In the fine self-funding tradition, of course.

I don't think they had a good sample for their survey:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

It may be too Republican leaning, but that means it's good news for Democrats in terms of avoiding a primary disaster.

With Harris running there's absolutely no chance of a primary disaster for the Dems.  A D vs D general election seems far more likely IMO.

A D v. D general? That's a joke.

How is it a joke?  If no prominent Republicans run, I think there's a good chance that a Democrat will win second place in the primary.
And I agree that it's far from a done deal that Harris will win.  If the general election is Harris vs Sanchez, Sanchez could win.

Even if a not prominent Republican runs, the Republicans probably get, what, 40% of the vote in the low turnout scenario? I think it's unlikely Democrats pull out second person.

It depends how many Republicans decide to run.

This is the case, and if it's a scattershot of nobodies, it may be possible, but that won't be likely.

[Vosem]

A D v. D general election is absolutely possible if there are 3+ serious Republicans running. Especially at this early stage, it is not a possibility that should be discounted at all.

[badgate]

Harris keeps on racking in endorsements from the Northeast, with endorsements from Gillibrand and Booker. She also received a pretty big endorsement from CA Speaker Toni Atkins who became the first openly gay governor of the state for a day last year, and was on the CA-Sen potential list.

That doesn't count.

Acting governor. I remember that it went all the way down to 3rd in line due to out of state trips.

That doesn't count.

[RogueBeaver]

Steyer outlines his agenda, saying he'd serve a single term if his legislative goals weren't met.

[justfollowingtheelections]

Carly Fiorina was on the Bill Maher show and she said she lives in Virginia now, and she's not running for Boxer's seat.  She also said that she's serious about running for president.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AgEBOKuZKXM

[Miles]

Well, we know were Josh Kraushaar's bias is and here is promoting Villaraigosa in his last piece.

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

A D v. D general election is absolutely possible if there are 3+ serious Republicans running. Especially at this early stage, it is not a possibility that should be discounted at all.

Republicans need exactly two candidates if they hoped for a long shot R vs R general election, or exactly one candidate if they want a spot guaranteed on the general election ballot without the risk of a D vs D race.

[RogueBeaver]

Swallwell endorses Harris.

[Bakersfield Uber Alles]

So the way it looks now, there's roughly 4 declared Dems (Harris, Villaraigosa, Steyer, Sanchez), and zero Republicans.

Sundheim, Chavez and Ose seem to be the most likely picks for Republicans, but given the state and climate they'll get one spot in the general at best. As long as the DSCC makes sure Harris makes it to the general, then all's good.

Ose couldn't beat Bera in CA-07 last year. I don't think that he'll be a serious contender.

[RogueBeaver]

Local Latino leaders are pushing hard for Villaraigosa.

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

Local Latino leaders are pushing hard for Villaraigosa.

Besides being sick of Villaraigosa for numerous reasons from living in SoCal, I'd want Harris just for the fact that (barring she doesn't run for President, get picked for VP, or cabinet position eventually) she could stick around in the senate for six or so terms. Contextually speaking, Villaraigosa is about two Senate terms in age older than Harris. I would want someone from California who could replicate that seniority Feinstein and Boxer held together.

[RogueBeaver]

Becerra seriously considering.

[justfollowingtheelections]

I have a feeling some of the SoCal Latinos will drop out at some point.  Some of the candidates will probably also try to present themselves as moderates to woo conservative voters in the primary.

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

Becerra seriously considering.

WTF.... wait for Pelosi and Hoyer to retire and he has a great shot at moving up in House leadership.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Becerra seriously considering.

WTF.... wait for Pelosi and Hoyer to retire and he has a great shot at moving up in House leadership.

Pelosi will be in congress until she is either primaried or dies.