CA-Sen: California Quake

[Miles]

More good news for Harris, if true:

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Edit: Yep, he's not running.

[RogueBeaver]

Now that's how you crush an invisible primary. Congrats to Senator Harris.

[IceSpear]

Stupendous news! Congrats Sen. Harris!

[RogueBeaver]

Loretta Sanchez still considering.

[Vosem]

Well, my initial predictions were wrong. Good job, Senator Harris.

Republicans are trying to draft David Dreier.

He'd be good, so there's a face at the top to encourage Republican turnout in swing districts.

[RogueBeaver]

Schiff still considering, but I doubt he'll piss everything away to get thumped by Harris.

[tallguy23]

Schiff is in a safe seat for life. He's a great congressman and a really upstanding guy. I'd rather he stick in the House and move up in leadership.

[free my dawg]

If Rice runs for Senate, I see California being competitive at the presidential level.

Are you retarded?

[Brittain33]

Loretta Sanchez still considering.

Hasn't she always been a lone wolf in the California Dem party? I doubt she'd get any support.

[Torie]

Loretta Sanchez still considering.

Hasn't she always been a lone wolf in the California Dem party? I doubt she'd get any support.

She won't.

[Beet]

Loretta Sanchez still considering.

Hasn't she always been a lone wolf in the California Dem party? I doubt she'd get any support.

She won't.

Well, her sister would support her, at least.

[Miles]

I think she'd be a better candidates for Republicans than Dreier, but Ashley Swearengin isn't running.

[Suburbia]

If Rice runs for Senate, I see California being competitive at the presidential level.

Are you retarded?

No. California won't be Democratic forever, just like Texas won't for Republicans. It's time for excitment in California politics again, not low-turnout elections because the voters know who will win already. Fresno mayor Ashley Swearengin won't run, she should have. She could have beaten Harris as well.
http://www.latimes.com/local/political/la-me-pc-fresno-mayor-swearengin-passes-on-senate-race-20150227-story.html

[Miles]

^ The GOP doesn't have a demographic situation that's conductive to its (long-term) success, as the Dems do in TX.   

Good call for Swearengin not to run. She would have gotten 40-45% against Harris in almost any outcome.

[smoltchanov]

If Rice runs for Senate, I see California being competitive at the presidential level.

Are you retarded?

No. California won't be Democratic forever, just like Texas won't for Republicans. It's time for excitment in California politics again, not low-turnout elections because the voters know who will win already. Fresno mayor Ashley Swearengin won't run, she should have. She could have beaten Harris as well.
http://www.latimes.com/local/political/la-me-pc-fresno-mayor-swearengin-passes-on-senate-race-20150227-story.html

She would lose. The simple fact that she is pro-life would give Harris absolutely unsurmountable margin in coastal California. And she knows that. Hence - she reasonably passed..

[Vega]

California and Texas will never be completely safe for the Democrats and Republicans respectively. They're just too big (and will get even bigger).

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

I don't know if this was posted yet, but:

USC/LA Times poll on CA 2016.

Harris (D) - 28
Villaraigosa (D) - 19
Schiff (D) - 5
Becarro/Sundheim [split A/B] (R) - 6/5
Chavez (R) - 6
Swearengin (R) - 9

As per usual with USC polls, there are a lot of pointless questions to sift through (like "what do you like most about living in California?")

[edit]: LA Times analysis of all the other filler questions.

[moderatevoter]

Potential speedbump for Harris.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Potential speedbump for Harris.

Maybe I'm missing something, but I don't really see how this scandal involves Harris.  Sounds like this is a scandal for the Kern County Prosecutor rather than Harris.  I should also add that it is pretty clear from reading the editorial that the author has an axe to grind regarding Harris and that it was written as a hit-piece rather than objective commentary.

[Vega]

Generally, whenever a AG runs for higher office outside of the judiciary there are going to be "scandals" that come out like that. It's not a position that garners you many friends.

[Del Tachi]

Just out of curiosity, how would a runoff between Harris and Villaraigosa shaped-out?  Would the bulk of GOP support go to Harris?

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

Just out of curiosity, how would a runoff between Harris and Villaraigosa shaped-out?  Would the bulk of GOP support go to Harris?

If I had to guess, the geography would probably play the deciding factor. The north would probably go Harris, and the south would go Villaraigosa. But throwing a wrench in that is Villaraigosa's personal unpopularity, particularly among non-Hispanic and Republican voters, in the LA/greater LA area.

To pull a "Mary Landrieu being interviewed by Chuck Todd" moment, I'd say white Republicans, particularly in the northeast/eastern parts of the state, would probably vote Harris because they see Villaraigosa as an embodiment of the "invasive illegal aliens" they detest. That, combined with no one (besides maybe Hispanics) being enthused by Villaraigosa in LA would likely result in a Harris win.

[Maxwell]

It depends on if Republicans want embarrassment or a real Senator. If they want the former, they would vote for 'Gosa in droves.

[RogueBeaver]

Loretta Sanchez apparently prepping to enter after Easter.

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

Loretta Sanchez apparently prepping to enter after Easter.

Ugh.

She must see some avenue to victory though if she's jumping in.