CA-Sen: California Quake

[IceSpear]

Looking forward to Senator Harris!

[IceSpear]

If we end up with a CA-31 2012 situation here then I will probably blow a gasket.

We're talking about a statewide California race here. Republicans can't win.

Sure, but if enough big name Democrats siphon votes from eachother, two Republicans could eek out of the primary.

You'd need only two Republicans that are approximately equal in candidate strength so they can split the Republican vote almost evenly, along with a Democratic clown car without the field being winnowed down at all. Seems very unlikely in a race so high profile and important.

[IceSpear]

Republicans are banking on a pickup because of the top two, but that's not at all guaranteed to happen.

We're not banking on a pickup; we'll be able to hold the Senate without much difficulty without one. But we are looking forward to a nice bonus we may receive entirely thanks to the efforts of the Democratic Party in California to reform the election system.

"Without much difficulty"? The blue avatars thinking they now have a permanent majority because they had one good election is very amusing, particularly when said election had record low turnout.

Democrats were supposed to gain seats in 2010 immediately after 2008. Republicans were favorites to take the Senate in 2012 immediately after 2010. Democrats were favorites to hold the Senate immediately after 2012. Most "analysis" at this point is just lame extrapolation from the election that just happened, which is even more useless now that the electorate is schizophrenic and a large chunk only turns out for presidentials. Yet from your confidence, you'd think Republicans had a 70 seat majority.

[IceSpear]

Damn, I was hoping Boxer would change her mind and run again.

Oh well, hopefully Harris runs. And hopefully Villaraigosa does not.

[IceSpear]

If there is any person who can lose this senate race for the Democrats, it is Steyer. He will win the bay area but he will collapse in the central valley among hispanics (water and jobs issue) and quite possibly could in southern california as well. Rich, white liberals are not the swing vote in California, it is moderate to conservative minorities. A generic democrat wins that vote easily in this environment but things get interesting if it is an out of touch billionaire vs a moderate like Kashkari or Swearingen. In any case, California is more likely to vote in a Republican governor before a senator barring unusual circumstances.

It's California in a presidential year. There's no scenario outside of an R vs. R race that Democrats lose.

[IceSpear]

Harris will announce tomorrow.

Splendid news!

[IceSpear]

If DiFi runs again, I wonder if any Dem would run against her. Only 2 strong Democrats would eliminate the risk of an R vs. R race, so that wouldn't be a deterrent.

[IceSpear]

Poll is worthless until we know the field. Oddly, it was also conducted in December, before Boxer announced her retirement.

[IceSpear]

PPP found McClintock 28, Harris 27, Kashkari 12, everyone else in single digits. No Becerra/Villaraigosa/Steyer.

Steyer's team calls him Cincinnatus. In the fine self-funding tradition, of course.

I don't think they had a good sample for their survey:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

That sounds about right. Our June elections heavily favor Republicans.

Loretta Sanchez is seriously considering, from her facebook page

I don't think Harris has this locked down quite yet. Sanchez would be more formidable as a Hispanic opposition than Villarigosa.

Hell no to a blue dog!

It says RVs though, not primary LVs.

[IceSpear]

PPP found McClintock 28, Harris 27, Kashkari 12, everyone else in single digits. No Becerra/Villaraigosa/Steyer.

Steyer's team calls him Cincinnatus. In the fine self-funding tradition, of course.

I don't think they had a good sample for their survey:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

It may be too Republican leaning, but that means it's good news for Democrats in terms of avoiding a primary disaster.

With Harris running there's absolutely no chance of a primary disaster for the Dems.  A D vs D general election seems far more likely IMO.

A D v. D general? That's a joke.

How is it a joke?  If no prominent Republicans run, I think there's a good chance that a Democrat will win second place in the primary.
And I agree that it's far from a done deal that Harris will win.  If the general election is Harris vs Sanchez, Sanchez could win.

Even if a not prominent Republican runs, the Republicans probably get, what, 40% of the vote in the low turnout scenario? I think it's unlikely Democrats pull out second person.

It depends how many Republicans decide to run.

[IceSpear]

Becerra seriously considering.

WTF.... wait for Pelosi and Hoyer to retire and he has a great shot at moving up in House leadership.

Pelosi will be in congress until she is either primaried or dies.

She doesn't have to be primaried.  Any Democrat that runs in her district could easily win 2nd place in the primary.  It's not uncommon for Green or Peace and Freedom party candidates to do better than Republicans.  A Democrat could easily beat any Republican and then try to pull a Swalwell in the general election.

Never gonna happen. Pelosi cracked 70% even when she was challenged from both the left and the right simultaneously in 2008. Since Republicans are basically irrelevant in the district, her losing the general would require vast discontent about her among Democrats, which doesn't exist. The seat is hers until she retires or dies.

[IceSpear]

Steyer out.

Splendid news!

[IceSpear]

Harris/Sanchez replacing Boxer/Feinstein would be great.

[IceSpear]

Need another woman to replace Feinstein when she retires.

Nobody else really stands out, except for maybe Loretta Sanchez. She's moderate relative to the delegation but could pull a Gillibrand and slide left if she were to get it.

Gillibrand wasn't in a D+9.

Sanchez doesn't actually vote like a blue dog though.

[IceSpear]

Didn't see it posted anywhere, but Kashkari is out of the running.

http://www.cnn.com/2015/02/07/politics/2016-california-senate-neel-kashkari/index.html

I could see him making another run for governor if a Democratic administration implodes. But if there's ever an opportunity like that, he'd probably get trampled by Issa, McClintock, Hunter, or Royce.

Excellent news! That means a real candidate can run here!

Like a self-funder? I don't see any established Republican career politician who would run for this seat.

Issa could at make it competitive...and that's all Republicans should ask for right now.

NYE pls

[IceSpear]

If Rice runs for Senate, I see California being competitive at the presidential level.

Then you may need to get your eyesight checked.

[IceSpear]

Stupendous news! Congrats Sen. Harris!

[IceSpear]

Loretta Sanchez apparently prepping to enter after Easter.

Too bad. I wish she would wait until 2018 instead.