CA-Sen: California Quake

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

Does this basically mean bye bye Dianne as well?

I've always thought she'd be a lifer, but it seems plausible she'd retire, especially if Democrats can't retake the majority after 2016.

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

Who would be the Republicans best candidate, in all of yours opinions? Not sure it matters in the long run, but I'd like to know y'alls thoughts.

For what? It's almost impossible for Republican to win California statewide position even in good Republican year now (absent deeply flawed Democratic candidate). The closest came Steve Cooley in 2010. Someone like him, but even in that case at least some "help" from Democrats is required... And if we talk about district contests - obviously it will depend on "which district" (there is still a sizeable minority of relatively Republican and conservative districts, republican problem is that they seldom come beyond them, so it will be interesting to see how people like Hadley and Baker will fare in 2016)

I'm just asking who would be the strongest, not who could win.

The most non-controversial one. Cooley will not run, probably, so - somebody like Peterson or Swearengin... Both got more or less respectable percentages this year

I could see them maybe running, but it's just so miserable to run as a Republican statewide in California. Zero party infrastructure, fragmented state party between moderate suburbanites and crazy rural whackjobs, little/no out of state support as situations are perceived as hopeless. It's just a nightmare scenario, especially since Whitman and Fiorina self-funded so intensely and still lost.

Only way I see a shot for a Republican at this point is for a Dem jungle primary major f**k up.

I could see a Republican becoming governor (or any statewide officer), but for federal statewide office it just seems like too big of a hurdle

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

Rep. Loretta Sanchez is considering a run if and when Boxer retires

Even though Sanchez is fairly liberal, California doesn't need a self described member of the Blue Dog coalition to become its next senator. Sorry Loretta.

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

I'll miss Boxer. We need our Jewish women senators.

I'm all on board for Harris. Honestly, as long as the seat is retained by a Bay Area Democrat, I'm fine.

Would love for a new Senator from SoCal, but I like all the northern candidates better. Villaraigosa is a sleezeball, Loretta can't compete with the Harris and Newsom juggernauts, Atkins is too low on the ladder, John Perez is a jerk. I like Eric Garcetti, but he needs to stay as mayor for now. Not a fan of Steyer being a one-issue candidate/Dem equivalent of the Kochs.

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

holy christ, shut the f[inks] up steyer no one wants you to be their senator.
*snip*

This

Unless Citizens United is overturned, Steyer should stay out of elected office.

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

I just don't understand why Steyer would feel the need to run for Senate. It's not like Harris is going to be any less progressive on environmental issues than Boxer was. He's better off staying out and donating to candidates to help get more Boxer's and Harris' into office.

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

If Feinstein goes for another, she's a lifer.

She'll live well into her 90's barring any significant health problems, so I wouldn't be so sure on that timetable.

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

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Interesting parallel to the Hawaii primary last cycle.

The Obama candidate narrowly prevailed despite incumbency and Obama winning the state in a landslide. As an open race in a Clinton state, should we expect Villar to prevail?

If Harris focuses her campaign in SoCal, she should be able to chip away at AV's advantage. Bay area voters will probably more fiercely loyal to Harris than LA voters to him.

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

PPP found McClintock 28, Harris 27, Kashkari 12, everyone else in single digits. No Becerra/Villaraigosa/Steyer.

Steyer's team calls him Cincinnatus. In the fine self-funding tradition, of course.

I don't think they had a good sample for their survey:

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It may be too Republican leaning, but that means it's good news for Democrats in terms of avoiding a primary disaster.

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

A D v. D general election is absolutely possible if there are 3+ serious Republicans running. Especially at this early stage, it is not a possibility that should be discounted at all.

Republicans need exactly two candidates if they hoped for a long shot R vs R general election, or exactly one candidate if they want a spot guaranteed on the general election ballot without the risk of a D vs D race.

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

Local Latino leaders are pushing hard for Villaraigosa.

Besides being sick of Villaraigosa for numerous reasons from living in SoCal, I'd want Harris just for the fact that (barring she doesn't run for President, get picked for VP, or cabinet position eventually) she could stick around in the senate for six or so terms. Contextually speaking, Villaraigosa is about two Senate terms in age older than Harris. I would want someone from California who could replicate that seniority Feinstein and Boxer held together.

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

Becerra seriously considering.

WTF.... wait for Pelosi and Hoyer to retire and he has a great shot at moving up in House leadership.

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

Steyer might run in 2018.

A Newsom vs. Steyer primary would be fascinating. San Francisco versus San Francisco.

If a candidate from SoCal like Loretta Sanchez, Xavier Becerra, or Villaraigosa ran, it seems like they would make it out of the jungle with a Someguy McRepublican.

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

I don't have a link (Miles or RogueBeaver might), but John Chiang is not running for Senate.

He should run in 2018 if Feinstein retires.

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

Villaraigosa likely to launch within 2 weeks.

Hopefully he gets s**t on by establishment D.C. and CA Dems. I get why they'd run him now though. Harris will win, just sacrifice Villaraigosa now, then get him out of politics. Run a solid Latino candidate (Loretta Sanchez, Becerra, Padilla, literally ANYONE else) and win Feinstein's seat in 2018 with someone who at least (somewhat) cares about substantive politics and not just his own career.

If there is only one Republican that ends up running, they will probably be the top vote getter. Harris should be able to edge out Villaraigosa for spot 2, then win the general without breaking a sweat. I think people overestimate how loyal Los Angeles County will be to Villaraigosa, particularly if Harris actively campaigns down here in the primary. Harris will have all the money.

I think Harris was the only statewide candidate who ran ads for herself in the general election down here. Perez ran ads for Controller during the primary to solidify his LA base, but lost anyway to Betty Yee, a northerner. Should work out the same way for this.

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

Hmmm... Harris vs. Villaraigosa 1-on-1 with 1 major GOP candidate does probably lead to a Harris vs. GOP general.  Harris vs. Villaraigosa with 2 major GOP candidats is probably a Harris vs. Villaraigosa general.  If a 3rd Dem with strong credentials gets in, time to worry about an all GOP general.

I think he is betting on a 2 Dem general and higher Hispanic turnout in 2016 vs. 2018 is drawing him in now.

I don't think any other credible Dem is stupid enough to jump in against Harris and Villaraigosa. Otherwise they'll have to face John Burton's wrath.... LOL!

Feinstein got 49.5% in the 2012 primary, but 5 other Dems ran, giving Dems about 56-57% of the vote. I think we should expect the same share here, but with two credible Dems running and maybe one or two randoms that'll get 1 or 2%. In an (essentially) three way race, Swearengin would probably beat Harris and Villaraigosa by double digits in the primary.

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

Didn't see it posted anywhere, but Kashkari is out of the running.

http://www.cnn.com/2015/02/07/politics/2016-california-senate-neel-kashkari/index.html

I could see him making another run for governor if a Democratic administration implodes. But if there's ever an opportunity like that, he'd probably get trampled by Issa, McClintock, Hunter, or Royce.

Excellent news! That means a real candidate can run here!

Like a self-funder? I don't see any established Republican career politician who would run for this seat.

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

Didn't see it posted anywhere, but Kashkari is out of the running.

http://www.cnn.com/2015/02/07/politics/2016-california-senate-neel-kashkari/index.html

I could see him making another run for governor if a Democratic administration implodes. But if there's ever an opportunity like that, he'd probably get trampled by Issa, McClintock, Hunter, or Royce.

Excellent news! That means a real candidate can run here!

Like a self-funder? I don't see any established Republican career politician who would run for this seat.

Yes, a self-funder. But most importantly, someone not as terrible as Neel Kashkari.

I think he's a much better candidate than Carly or Meg, he just didn't have the money they did.

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

I think Donnelly could do better if his establishment Republican opponent wasn't trying to attack him during the primary, but you do have a point that there are better candidates out there. Well, the CAGOP has to deal with the cards it's been dealt.

The big problem of the 2014 gubernatorial primary was the 6% that went to minor Republican candidates. That can't be allowed to be repeated. Open Campaigns is down right now, so I can't look up how it is geographically that Daniel Evans performed in the 2014 Comptroller open primary, which was less than a percentage point off from being perfect.

I found a site called "Our Campaigns," which had the results here: http://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=726292

Ashley Swearengin won with only 24.79% compared with Daniel Evans's 4th place finish with 21.05%. That race was a mess. It is possible that there could be a repeat, but I kind of doubt that there will be as many candidates by the time the filing date comes around. If more candidates stay in, the winner might not break 20%.

What needs to happen for Republicans is to run one Republican from the north/central valley and another from the south, all in a low turnout year (like CA 2014).

Theoretically, If Swearengin ran again without Evans, she should pick up the most support from the northeast corner, which Evans swept. Then run a Republican like Kevin Faulconer (RINO alert) who has the ability to win in usually Democratic San Diego, and would assumedly perform well in Orange County. Abysmal turnout in Los Angeles, throw in a Green Party/more random Democrats to siphon off Bay Area support, and bam, you've got yourself a R vs R election.

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

The question, to some extent, is whether Donnelly can repeat Evans' performance from 2014. In the gubernatorial race, due to the preponderance of minor candidates, Jerry Brown's popularity, and the fact that they were largely attacking each other, the two main Republican candidates combined for only 33% of the vote. That number will be much greater in 2016, since they will have an incentive to cooperate and no popular Democratic incumbent running; it should be 45-46% at the least, assuming minor candidates can be kept out. So Donnelly should be able to make it into the low 20s, which could be enough assuming the Democratic vote is split right.

I just chose Faulconer because he was the first high-profile San Diego Republican that came to mind when I was inventing a plausible R vs R scenario. Someone along those lines was the idea though.

Obviously, I'm on the other side about the DeMaio race, but his political career is (likely) over. The sexual harassment incidents/allegations aside, he had two pretty big high profile losses that'll take time to recover from. All his future opponents (including Republican primary candidates) just have to do this and he's done.

[Edit]: Can anyone find a county map for the 2014 Gubernatorial primary? Since the Secretary of State's site was updated, I can't find the maps.

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

Duf Sundheim and Tom Del Beccaro, two former chairs of the California Republican Party, considering a run. Tim Donnelly currently a "maybe."

Assemblyman Rocky Chavez, a Republican, is mentioned and would probably be a good statewide candidate at some point, but not for this seat in a presidential year against Harris. A Latino, he is strong on veterans issues and served in the military.

If Villaraigosa runs, he'll nullify Chavez's Latino advantage, and they'll both be steamrolled by Harris.

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

If Rice runs for Senate, I see California being competitive at the presidential level.

Just run one ad that shows Condi's picture with a voice over whispering 'Iraq... Iraq... Iraq...' over and over and she'll lose 60-40.

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

I don't know if this was posted yet, but:

USC/LA Times poll on CA 2016.

Harris (D) - 28
Villaraigosa (D) - 19
Schiff (D) - 5
Becarro/Sundheim [split A/B] (R) - 6/5
Chavez (R) - 6
Swearengin (R) - 9

As per usual with USC polls, there are a lot of pointless questions to sift through (like "what do you like most about living in California?")

[edit]: LA Times analysis of all the other filler questions.

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

Just out of curiosity, how would a runoff between Harris and Villaraigosa shaped-out?  Would the bulk of GOP support go to Harris?

If I had to guess, the geography would probably play the deciding factor. The north would probably go Harris, and the south would go Villaraigosa. But throwing a wrench in that is Villaraigosa's personal unpopularity, particularly among non-Hispanic and Republican voters, in the LA/greater LA area.

To pull a "Mary Landrieu being interviewed by Chuck Todd" moment, I'd say white Republicans, particularly in the northeast/eastern parts of the state, would probably vote Harris because they see Villaraigosa as an embodiment of the "invasive illegal aliens" they detest. That, combined with no one (besides maybe Hispanics) being enthused by Villaraigosa in LA would likely result in a Harris win.

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

Loretta Sanchez apparently prepping to enter after Easter.

Ugh.

She must see some avenue to victory though if she's jumping in.