CA-Sen: California Quake

[Vega]

Good to hear. I appreciate her service, but it's time for a change.

[Vega]

Not surprising. Looking forward to Senator Harris Newsom!

[Vega]

I am very much in favor of the top-two system because it actually gives third parties and independent candidates a chance.  Also in one-party states or districts where the primary is the real election, the winner shouldn't be determined by a low turn-out primary.

By the way, I think a D vs D general election is far more likely than an R winning the seat IMO.

Yeah, I'm inclined to agree with you. How awesome a Newsom-Harris General election fight would be.

[Vega]

I am very much in favor of the top-two system because it actually gives third parties and independent candidates a chance.  Also in one-party states or districts where the primary is the real election, the winner shouldn't be determined by a low turn-out primary.

By the way, I think a D vs D general election is far more likely than an R winning the seat IMO.

Yeah, I'm inclined to agree with you. How awesome a Newsom-Harris General election fight would be.

Be interesting to guess a map. Who would become the de facto conservative candidate?

I imagine Newsom? I don't know, both are pretty liberal.

[Vega]

Rep. Loretta Sanchez is considering a run if and when Boxer retires

Even though Sanchez is fairly liberal, California doesn't need a self described member of the Blue Dog coalition to become its next senator. Sorry Loretta.

She's only a Blue Dog because, from my understanding, her district used to be more conservative. I doubt she has any real tie to the faction.

[Vega]

California and Texas will never be completely safe for the Democrats and Republicans respectively. They're just too big (and will get even bigger).

[Vega]

Generally, whenever a AG runs for higher office outside of the judiciary there are going to be "scandals" that come out like that. It's not a position that garners you many friends.

[Vega]

Hell no to Blue Dogs from D+8 districts.

"California Blue Dogs" are no Blue Dogs in all, but name.

No, she was pretty conservative (not a Parker Griffith, but still). However, that was when here district was a lot more competitive than it is today. She's flip-flopped on several issues and looks like a generic Dem now.

[Vega]

Hell no to Blue Dogs from D+8 districts.

"California Blue Dogs" are no Blue Dogs in all, but name.

No, she was pretty conservative (not a Parker Griffith, but still). However, that was when here district was a lot more competitive than it is today. She's flip-flopped on several issues and looks like a generic Dem now.

Agree. But even Parker Griffith wasn't (IMHO) the most conservative even among contemporary Blue Dogs. And absolutely incomparable with Blue Dogs of relatively recent past (Boll Weevils), who included such persons as Larry McDonald, Phil Gramm and Bob Stump (all - Democrats!).

The latter of the two you mentioned became Republicans and stayed that way. Larry McDonald isn't really contemporary, too.

But still, that's true. Harold Ford Jr. was pretty conservative too.

[Vega]

I don't think this poll deserves its own thread (58% are undecided), but the Field Poll has Harris and Sanchez making a runoff. Harris leads by a whopping 19-8 margin.

That would be amazing. A D on D race? Color me interested.