CA-Sen: California Quake

[Maxwell]

Hope we get a Faulconer v. Nunes situation, with Faulconer crushing Nunes.

[Maxwell]

I would be surprised if Tom Steyer actually ran, after the poor 2014 he had.

[Maxwell]

If we end up with a CA-31 2012 situation here then I will probably blow a gasket.

We're talking about a statewide California race here. Republicans can't win.

Sure, but if enough big name Democrats siphon votes from eachother, two Republicans could eek out of the primary.

[Maxwell]

If we end up with a CA-31 2012 situation here then I will probably blow a gasket.

We're talking about a statewide California race here. Republicans can't win.

Sure, but if enough big name Democrats siphon votes from eachother, two Republicans could eek out of the primary.

You'd need only two Republicans that are approximately equal in candidate strength so they can split the Republican vote almost evenly, along with a Democratic clown car without the field being winnowed down at all. Seems very unlikely in a race so high profile and important.

I'm not commenting on it's likelihood. It's extremely unlikely. Not impossible though, and would be hilarious. And for the record, I would be just as amused if Alabama had this system and two black Democrats made it out of the top two.

[Maxwell]

I'd say the most interesting race would be Faulconer or Valadao v. Villariagosa.

[Maxwell]

Who would be the Republicans best candidate, in all of yours opinions? Not sure it matters in the long run, but I'd like to know y'alls thoughts.

[Maxwell]

Who would be the Republicans best candidate, in all of yours opinions? Not sure it matters in the long run, but I'd like to know y'alls thoughts.

For what? It's almost impossible for Republican to win California statewide position even in good Republican year now (absent deeply flawed Democratic candidate). The closest came Steve Cooley in 2010. Someone like him, but even in that case at least some "help" from Democrats is required... And if we talk about district contests - obviously it will depend on "which district" (there is still a sizeable minority of relatively Republican and conservative districts, republican problem is that they seldom come beyond them, so it will be interesting to see how people like Hadley and Baker will fare in 2016)

I'm just asking who would be the strongest, not who could win.

[Maxwell]

Moderates have a party, it's called the "Democratic Party." Most independents are just teabagger Republicans who don't want to identify as such.

I am sort of a Rockefeller Republican and I could never be a Democrat. With that said I am not a registered Republican either. I just feel like the Democrats are too liberal or me and the Republicans are too Bible Belt/Deep South to identify with.

I frequently mention that my "role model" in politics is former Republican Senator Charles Mathias. And that 30-35 years ago i would almost surely be "North-Eastern Republican", especially if i  lived in that region (BTW - my favorite region of US). That would be an ideal for my views. But Republicans usually doesn't give me such candidates NOW. Hence - i root for specific democratic candidates more frequently then not now, while being always open to alternatives (from Greens via Republicans and up to Libertarians). And strongly dislike BOTH big parties as they are in broad terms.. It happens...

I never got this, but I'll go ahead and ask - what issues did Charles Mathias EVER vote with his party on? Do you like him just because he's a liberal in the Republican Party?

[Maxwell]

Villaraigosa is seriously considering a run.

Excellent news!

[Maxwell]

Carl DeMaio's name is on the wiki list, but I really can't imagine him running unless he goes as a sacrificial lamb of sorts.

[Maxwell]

Harris will clear the field she will scare away everyone else should she announce. Boxer will endorse her to seal the deal, I think this will be a snoozer in the end.

There are too many ambitious California politicians who have been waiting too long for that to be true.

[Maxwell]

Villaraigosa is seriously considering a run.

Excellent news!

I am assuming due to the increased likelihood of a cluster****, unless there is something I am missing about Tony Villar...

Increased likelihood of a cluster****, obviously, but also because Villaraigosa would so obviously be an embarrassment.

[Maxwell]

I can't see Steyer catching he has no base his only advantage is money.

Neither did Jon Corzine when he first started, and he got elected Senator.

[Maxwell]

It doesn't really matter what Boxer wants, though.

[Maxwell]

It doesn't surprise me too much that Newsom didn't want to run - He seems more obviously aimed at the Governorship.

[Maxwell]

Why did they poll the head to head as Garcetti v. Harris? What kind of ish is that?

[Maxwell]

PPP found McClintock 28, Harris 27, Kashkari 12, everyone else in single digits. No Becerra/Villaraigosa/Steyer.

Steyer's team calls him Cincinnatus. In the fine self-funding tradition, of course.

I don't think they had a good sample for their survey:

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It may be too Republican leaning, but that means it's good news for Democrats in terms of avoiding a primary disaster.

With Harris running there's absolutely no chance of a primary disaster for the Dems.  A D vs D general election seems far more likely IMO.

A D v. D general? That's a joke.

[Maxwell]

Loretta Sanchez is seriously considering, from her facebook page

I don't think Harris has this locked down quite yet. Sanchez would be more formidable as a Hispanic opposition than Villarigosa.

[Maxwell]

PPP found McClintock 28, Harris 27, Kashkari 12, everyone else in single digits. No Becerra/Villaraigosa/Steyer.

Steyer's team calls him Cincinnatus. In the fine self-funding tradition, of course.

I don't think they had a good sample for their survey:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

It may be too Republican leaning, but that means it's good news for Democrats in terms of avoiding a primary disaster.

With Harris running there's absolutely no chance of a primary disaster for the Dems.  A D vs D general election seems far more likely IMO.

A D v. D general? That's a joke.

How is it a joke?  If no prominent Republicans run, I think there's a good chance that a Democrat will win second place in the primary.
And I agree that it's far from a done deal that Harris will win.  If the general election is Harris vs Sanchez, Sanchez could win.

Even if a not prominent Republican runs, the Republicans probably get, what, 40% of the vote in the low turnout scenario? I think it's unlikely Democrats pull out second person.

[Maxwell]

PPP found McClintock 28, Harris 27, Kashkari 12, everyone else in single digits. No Becerra/Villaraigosa/Steyer.

Steyer's team calls him Cincinnatus. In the fine self-funding tradition, of course.

I don't think they had a good sample for their survey:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

It may be too Republican leaning, but that means it's good news for Democrats in terms of avoiding a primary disaster.

With Harris running there's absolutely no chance of a primary disaster for the Dems.  A D vs D general election seems far more likely IMO.

A D v. D general? That's a joke.

How is it a joke?  If no prominent Republicans run, I think there's a good chance that a Democrat will win second place in the primary.
And I agree that it's far from a done deal that Harris will win.  If the general election is Harris vs Sanchez, Sanchez could win.

Even if a not prominent Republican runs, the Republicans probably get, what, 40% of the vote in the low turnout scenario? I think it's unlikely Democrats pull out second person.

It depends how many Republicans decide to run.

This is the case, and if it's a scattershot of nobodies, it may be possible, but that won't be likely.

[Maxwell]

Didn't see it posted anywhere, but Kashkari is out of the running.

http://www.cnn.com/2015/02/07/politics/2016-california-senate-neel-kashkari/index.html

Excellent news! That means a real candidate can run here!

[Maxwell]

Didn't see it posted anywhere, but Kashkari is out of the running.

http://www.cnn.com/2015/02/07/politics/2016-california-senate-neel-kashkari/index.html

I could see him making another run for governor if a Democratic administration implodes. But if there's ever an opportunity like that, he'd probably get trampled by Issa, McClintock, Hunter, or Royce.

Excellent news! That means a real candidate can run here!

Like a self-funder? I don't see any established Republican career politician who would run for this seat.

Yes, a self-funder. But most importantly, someone not as terrible as Neel Kashkari.

[Maxwell]

Didn't see it posted anywhere, but Kashkari is out of the running.

http://www.cnn.com/2015/02/07/politics/2016-california-senate-neel-kashkari/index.html

I could see him making another run for governor if a Democratic administration implodes. But if there's ever an opportunity like that, he'd probably get trampled by Issa, McClintock, Hunter, or Royce.

Excellent news! That means a real candidate can run here!

Like a self-funder? I don't see any established Republican career politician who would run for this seat.

Yes, a self-funder. But most importantly, someone not as terrible as Neel Kashkari.

I think he's a much better candidate than Carly or Meg, he just didn't have the money they did.

I mean, yes, Carly was a complete disaster, but Kashkari was worse than Meg. Did you see that drowning kid ad?

[Maxwell]

It depends on if Republicans want embarrassment or a real Senator. If they want the former, they would vote for 'Gosa in droves.

[Maxwell]

Laura Capps won't run for her moms seat

Republicans have a non-joke candidate here too, so look out for this one now.