One term President 2016

[emcee0]

I get a strange feeling that who ever wins in 2016 will be a one term President. I either see Hillary winning in 2016 but then choosing not to run for re-election, or Republicans narrowly win in 2016 and having a disastrous one term presidency and losing in a landslide in 2020 in a Reagan Roosevelt style victory.
Will 2016 be a one term presidency or will we re-elect the fourth consecutive President?

[Yelnoc]

If you buy into the cyclical presidents theory Obama = Nixon = Coolidge, which would indicate the next president will be a Republican with a disastrous one term presidency, to be succeeded by some sort "visionary" (= Reagan = FDR).

[Devils30]

I've thought this too, a Hillary win would be similar to a Ford win in 1976 and who knows what would have happened then. May have hastened the GOP realignment or been a train wreck. The demographics in the 2020 election would be probably around 67-68% white, perfect for the Democratic majority to emerge.

[Skill and Chance]

I've thought this too, a Hillary win would be similar to a Ford win in 1976 and who knows what would have happened then. May have hastened the GOP realignment or been a train wreck. The demographics in the 2020 election would be probably around 67-68% white, perfect for the Democratic majority to emerge.

That's interesting to think about.  1980 in retrospect looks less like a truly unwinnable re-election like 2008 or 1932 and more like Carter fumbling the ball at the 10 yard line.  Given the tendency of the times, I think Ford would have pulled out 1980 by like 50/48, setting up the GOP nominee for a landslide in 1984.   

[Mr. Morden]

I've thought this too, a Hillary win would be similar to a Ford win in 1976 and who knows what would have happened then. May have hastened the GOP realignment or been a train wreck. The demographics in the 2020 election would be probably around 67-68% white, perfect for the Democratic majority to emerge.

That's interesting to think about.  1980 in retrospect looks less like a truly unwinnable re-election like 2008 or 1932 and more like Carter fumbling the ball at the 10 yard line.  Given the tendency of the times, I think Ford would have pulled out 1980 by like 50/48, setting up the GOP nominee for a landslide in 1984.   

If Ford had won in 1976, he wouldn't have been eligible to run for yet another term in 1980.

[Skill and Chance]

I've thought this too, a Hillary win would be similar to a Ford win in 1976 and who knows what would have happened then. May have hastened the GOP realignment or been a train wreck. The demographics in the 2020 election would be probably around 67-68% white, perfect for the Democratic majority to emerge.

That's interesting to think about.  1980 in retrospect looks less like a truly unwinnable re-election like 2008 or 1932 and more like Carter fumbling the ball at the 10 yard line.  Given the tendency of the times, I think Ford would have pulled out 1980 by like 50/48, setting up the GOP nominee for a landslide in 1984.   

If Ford had won in 1976, he wouldn't have been eligible to run for yet another term in 1980.

Oops, that's right, he did serve more than half of Nixon's 2nd term.  It probably would be Lean D as an open seat in 1980, then.  And the Dem incumbent would ride 1984 to a huge win and we would find out whether there had really been a conservative realignment come 1988.

[Del Tachi]

If you buy into the cyclical presidents theory Obama = Nixon = Coolidge, which would indicate the next president will be a Republican with a disastrous one term presidency, to be succeeded by some sort "visionary" (= Reagan = FDR).

Except that, if that's the case, then we're due for a Democratic "Hoover" in 2016 with a Republican visionary in 2020. 

[The_Doctor]

Either a one term Democratic President (defeated for reelection) or a two term Republican President.

[Del Tachi]

Either a one term Democratic President (defeated for reelection) or a two term Republican President.

Which would be somewhat interesting because IIRC we haven't had a two-term President elected for the first time in a year ending with a "xxx6" since James Monroe.  Also, the previous 3 Presidents (Clinton, Bush and Obama) will be associated heavily with the decade that they were President (the 1990s, 2000s and 2010s, respectively) whereas a hypothetical President serving from 2017 to 2025 would be equally-associated with two decades, or perhaps not associated with one at all.  I guess a proper analogue would be how the 1900s, 1910s, 1930s, 1950s, 1960s, 1980s, 1990s, 2000s and 2010s will all be associated with one particular President, whereas the 1920s, 1940s, 1970s and potentially the 2020s will not be.   

[emcee0]

If you buy into the cyclical presidents theory Obama = Nixon = Coolidge, which would indicate the next president will be a Republican with a disastrous one term presidency, to be succeeded by some sort "visionary" (= Reagan = FDR).

Except that, if that's the case, then we're due for a Democratic "Hoover" in 2016 with a Republican visionary in 2020. 

I really don't think that's the case. It's been over 8 decades since we had a Hoover and Carter isn't too far back for people remember. With the way the GOP is going now I think winning the Presidency and failing astronomically would dig the grave for them even more. A possible realignment for the Democrats from an abysmal failure republican presidency could possibly help them gain back the territory they have lost recently. This could probably gained back by a Warren/Sanders like progressive.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I can see, the way the polls are going, that back to back Dem administrations are definitely a real possibly which hasn't happened since the Madison-Jefferson-Monroe administrations.


Between the legacy Reagan left us with the conservative bent of SCOTUS and the way Wallstreet have affected the country, people are willing to cement a new Democratic majority. People are perfectly happy to see divided government and if a Conservative win, that check may go away.

[Devils30]

Ford would have won in 1976 most likely without Watergate. Possible path for Hillary in 2016 assuming Obama doesn't have anything similar. 

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

The economy tends to make or break Presidents.

The last recession ended in June of 2009. Since the business cycle tends to run its course every 4-8 years, a recession could easily happen sometime in the next President's term. It could just be a small one that sinks them, too. The longest expansion the U.S. had was 1991-2001, so the current expansion would have to surpass June of 2019 to claim first place.

I'm personally betting on a mild one in 2018, the causes of which could be various.

[Oakvale]

Ford would have won in 1976 most likely without Watergate. Possible path for Hillary in 2016 assuming Obama doesn't have anything similar. 

Why would Ford be in office in 1976 without Watergate

[Cory]

Ford would have won in 1976 most likely without Watergate. Possible path for Hillary in 2016 assuming Obama doesn't have anything similar. 

Why would Ford be in office in 1976 without Watergate

The election was close enough to where any one thing could decide the election. Therefore it goes to reason that without Watergate Ford would have won. Kind of like had it not been for the Lewinsky scandal Gore would have a better chance in 2000.

[Devils30]

Ford would have won in 1976 most likely without Watergate. Possible path for Hillary in 2016 assuming Obama doesn't have anything similar. 

Why would Ford be in office in 1976 without Watergate

I meant to say a Republican would have won in 1976. Could have been Reagan then for all we know.

[Skill and Chance]

The economy tends to make or break Presidents.

The last recession ended in June of 2009. Since the business cycle tends to run its course every 4-8 years, a recession could easily happen sometime in the next President's term. It could just be a small one that sinks them, too. The longest expansion the U.S. had was 1991-2001, so the current expansion would have to surpass June of 2019 to claim first place.

I'm personally betting on a mild one in 2018, the causes of which could be various.

They actually have to get pretty bad relative to recent history to sink a political party.  If it's a 2001 style recession, it likely won't have political staying power.  Given the still recent memory of 2007-09, it would probably take something 1958-level to change the political narrative.

[Joe Biden 2020]

It is definitely possible for the 45th President to be one and done.

[Vega]

I think it would be nice to have a one term President by choice for once.

[pbrower2a]

If there are questions of health...

[anvi]

I actually thought whoever won in 2008 would be a one-termer.  Just would have to do a lot of thankless clear-up work, and the recovery was going to be slow now matter what happened.  I'm still a little surprised Obama was able to hang on under the circumstances.  But, you never know; it just depends on what happens in the country and who the choices are.  I tend to agree with Paul Begala about this, who said some time ago: "If we like the person we elected, they'll breeze to a second term, and if we don't like person after four years, we'll do what we almost always do and reelect them."

[sentinel]

I think it would be nice to have a one term President by choice for once.

I think McCain would have been had he won

[Bojack Horseman]

I think it would be nice to have a one term President by choice for once.

I think McCain would have been had he won

Nah, I think McCain would have been the Republicans' equivalent to Carter. John McCain would have been Bush's third term and the unemployment rate in 2012 would have been somewhere in the 20% range. Facing a serious primary challenge, McCain secures the nomination, but would have lost the general in an absolute landslide.

[Mr. Smith]

Actually the GOP equivalent to Carter would be Christie or Walker, aka an "against-type", "Washington-Outsider" governor who can campaign on having utter zilch to do with the establishment

And against someone who had even minor connections with said unpopular establishment, that would sell well. Especially if said "minor connections" flubs at the actual campaigning.

This in turn makes Hillary pretty much the Democrats Gerald Ford, harmless,moderate, and by all means shouldn't have any trouble.

No, McCain winning '08 would be more like HW to Dubya's idiotic,hackish, but "charismatic" Reagan and Obama/Hillary's (more likely Hillary in this case) stiff Dukakis.

Palin's practically a shoe-in for Dan Quayle anyway if one decides to be charitable.

[Vega]

^To be fair, Carter wasn't backed by billionaires in order to make Georgia better for their interests.