How will the GOP freshmen Senators fare in 2020?

[nclib]

Rounds, Capito, Sasse, Cotton, and Cassidy should be safe. (as is Dem Peters)

Sullivan and Daines are likely safe.

Ernst, Gardner, Tillis, and Perdue, in that order, are vulnerable.

[Free Bird]

Basically agree except the vulnerables.
I suspect Ernst will become a popular household name, and Gardner may become popular too with his image. Tillis will definitely be targeted due to his squeaker win, but he could prove me wrong. Georgia has a large incumbency effect (DEAL), so that should be okay until Perdue calls it quits.

[International Brotherhood of Bernard]

Hate to see this, but I agree with FreedomHawk on Ernst. Alot of my Democratic colleagues on this site and elsewhere think she'll be tossed out in 6 years because she's "extreme", but we also thought that would keep her out of office this year. She can play the reasonable moderate schtick pretty well, and she's only 44, so I think she'll be around for a long, long time. Gardner, on the other hand, could only manage a 2-point squeaker with turnout more than 10 points lower than in 2012, and Colorado isn't getting any redder, so I think he has a solid chance of going down in 2020 even against a B-List Democrat (Udall: The Redemption, perhaps?). Tillis and Perdue will both have to hold seats in rapidly diversifying states, so both will have big races on their hands, but Tillis especially seems to be somewhat towards the extreme side (not to mention he has the bluer state), so I think he's far more vulnerable than Perdue.

I agree on the Safes in their entirety.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Depends on whether 2020 is a strong year for Dems or the GOP.

[free my dawg]

Tillis>Ernst>Gardner>Perdue, in that order. I'd say Ernst is the wildcard out of these - she can be anywhere from highest on the list to lowest (but still most likely vulnerable - after all, it is Iowa). It all depends on how she votes.

The rest are good though, bar some perfect storm in SD. Peters could fall in an R wave though.

[TDAS04]

Rounds, Capito, Sasse, Cotton, and Cassidy should be safe. (as is Dem Peters)

Sullivan and Daines are likely safe.

Ernst, Gardner, Tillis, and Perdue, in that order, are vulnerable.

Mostly agree with this, except Perdue could easily be likely safe.  

[Maxwell]

I mean, it is six years out, but I think Tillis is easily the least safe. Ernst could create a trusting person (notice I didn't say moderate) and get re-elected easily. Gardner also knows how to campaign, and I feel, while he could go down, he probably won't unless it's under the right circumstances. I say Perdue is the second most vulnerable due to his ability to get himself in trouble with the things he says.

Wildcard: Daines is something of an accidental Senator, and could get out with the right challenge (mainly Steve Bullock), and I think it could be a neutral year for that to happen.

Sullivan is fine though, as well as the rest of the obviously safe ones.

As for Dems, Gary Peters is fine, no matter the year. Once he's an incumbent, there's really no way he goes. Only if he decides to be a one termer would the seat come up, and that would have to be an R-wave and a non-garbage candidate.

[Miles]

Tillis>Ernst>Gardner>Perdue, in that order.

[7,052,770]

...
Ernst believes birth control pills should be illegal and the UN is secretly going to round up American farmers and force-migrate them to cities for who knows why. She's crazier than Ted Cruz, and while she might become a household name, it won't be for anything good (at least to most people).

[Mister Mets]

They're all mostly safe in an okay year for Republicans. Ernst would be vulnerable to serious gaffes, although she's shown effective campaign discipline during her year in the spotlight.

In a good year for Democrats, Ernst, Tillis, Gardner, and Perdue are potentially vulnerable. Perdue has the safest seat, but the least political talent.

I could see Ernst pulling an Edwards, focusing on a presidential run rather than a second term as Senator.

[Nichlemn]

Probably pretty well. It should be noted that in the past few cycles, most of the pick-ups came from something other than defeated freshmen, so it's not necessarily right to look at these as the major opportunity for Democratic gains.

[ElectionsGuy]

Cotton, Cassidy, Capito, Rounds, Lankford, Sasse, Peters, and Daines should be relatively safe.

Even though Sullivan only won by 2, he ran against Mark Begich who ran the best campaign as a Democrat from Alaska. He should be fine.

Ernst will be tested in 2020, should be a hotly contested race. Candidate quality matters here for Democrats.

Gardner I think will be a Senator that gets safer as he gains incumbency. It should be close like any Colorado race is but I think he's favored slightly against anyone.

Perdue and Tillis have states that are going to be much less white in 2020 then they are now, so their feet will be held to the fire.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

It's way too early to say.

Haven't we learn anything?