How would past elections go if the electorates had foresight?
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  How would past elections go if the electorates had foresight?
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Author Topic: How would past elections go if the electorates had foresight?  (Read 2932 times)
SPC
Chuck Hagel 08
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« on: December 09, 2014, 11:26:05 AM »
« edited: December 09, 2014, 07:04:28 PM by SPC »

Suppose you went back in time to every leap year after 1789 plus 1800 and 1900 and published an American History book containing all important events until today. Also suppose that the populace is extremely credulous and would take such a history book at face value, rather than question how a man from the future got there and published his history book (dum dum dum dum dum). How do you think each election would have gone if the electorate knew the outcome of the route taken IRL?

My guesses (going backward):
2012: Romney
2008: McCain
2004: Kerry
2000: Gore
1996: Clinton
1992: Clinton
1988: Bush
1984: Reagan
1980: Reagan
1976: Ford
1972: McGovern
1968: Humphrey
1964: Johnson
1960: Kennedy (assuming he would still run under these circumstances)
1956: Eisenhower
1952: Eisenhower
1948: Dewey
1944: Dewey (see 1960)
1940: Roosevelt
1936: Roosevelt
1932: Roosevelt
1928: Smith
1924: Coolidge
1920: Harding
1916: Hughes
1912: Roosevelt
1908: Taft
1904: Roosevelt
1900: McKinley (see 1960)
1896: McKinley
1892: Harrison
1888: Cleveland
1884: Cleveland
1880: Hancock (see 1960)
1876: Tilden
1872: Grant (see 1960)
1868: Seymour
1864: Lincoln (see 1960)
1860: Douglas
1856: Buchanan
1852: Pierce
1848: Cass
1844: Polk
1840: Van Buren (see 1960)
1836: Harrison
1832: Jackson
1828: Jackson
1824: Jackson

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Del Tachi
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« Reply #1 on: December 09, 2014, 12:13:50 PM »

Do you mean foresight?  Lol

Hindsight is nothing spectacular to have
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Mr. Smith
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« Reply #2 on: December 09, 2014, 12:39:43 PM »

Don't kid yourself Hagel, no one would've voted for Harding with foresight. Any historian could tell you Cox was the better candidate.

More articulate, more intelligent, and more experienced, not just in general, but executively given that he was governor of the same state from which Harding was a Junior Senator.

And don't kid yourself about McCain either, Palin would be a disaster and people like most of ACA even if  they are scared by buzzwords.

More like, starting with your calendar

2012: Romney
2008: Obama
2004: Kerry
2000: Gore
1996: Clinton
1992: Perot
1988: Dukakis
1984: Reagan
1980: Carter
1976: Ford
1972: McGovern
1968: Humphrey
1964: Johnson
1960: Nixon
1956: Eisenhower
1952: Eisenhower
1948: Truman
1944: F. Roosevelt
1940: F. Roosevelt
1936: F. Roosevelt
1932: F. Roosevelt
1928: Smith
1924: Coolidge
1920: Cox
1916: Hughes
1912: T. Roosevelt
1908: Bryan
1904: T. Roosevelt
1900: Bryan
1896: McKinley
1892: Harrison
1888: Cleveland
1884: Cleveland
1880: Hancock
1876: Tilden
1872: Grant
1868: Grant
1864: Lincoln
1860: Douglas
1856: Fillmore
1852: Pierce
1848: Taylor
1844: Clay
1840: Van Buren
1836: Harrison
1832: Clay
1828: J.Q. Adams
1824: Jackson

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MATTROSE94
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« Reply #3 on: December 09, 2014, 02:59:01 PM »

1824: Andrew Jackson
1828: Andrew Jackson

1832: Henry Clay
1836: William Henry Harrison
1840: Martin Van Buren
1844: James K. Polk
1848: Lewis Cass
1852: Winfield Scott
1856: John Fremont
1860: Abraham Lincoln
1864: Abraham Lincoln

1868: Horatio Seymour
1872: Horace Greeley
1876: Samuel Tilden
1880: Winfield Scott Hancock
1884: Grover Cleveland
1888: Grover Cleveland
1892: Benjamin Harrison
1896: William Jennings Bryan
1900: William McKinley
1904: Theodore Roosevelt
1908: William Jennings Bryan
1912: Theodore Roosevelt
1916: Charles Evans Hughes
1920: James Cox
1924: Calvin Coolidge
1928: Al Smith
1932: Franklin Roosevelt
1936: Franklin Roosevelt
1940: Franklin Roosevelt
1944: Franklin Roosevelt
1948: Thomas Dewey
1952: Dwight Eisenhower
1956: Dwight Eisenhower
1960: Richard Nixon
1964: Barry Goldwater
1968: Hubert Humphrey
1972: George McGovern
1976: Gerald Ford
1980: Ronald Reagan
1984: Ronald Reagan
1988: Michael Dukakis
1992: Bill Clinton
1996: Bill Clinton
2000: Al Gore
2004: John Kerry

2008: John McCain
2012: Mitt Romney
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dudeabides
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« Reply #4 on: December 09, 2014, 03:27:46 PM »
« Edited: December 09, 2014, 03:37:14 PM by dudeabides »

I'll do 1960 - 2012:

1960:
John F. Kennedy (D) 51%
Richard Nixon (R) 48%
Explanation: Kennedy was a decisive leader and copied the GOP on tax cuts.


1964:
Barry Goldwater (R) 55%
Lyndon B. Johnson (D) 44%
Explanation: Vietnam.


1968:
Hubert Humphrey (D) 49%
Richard Nixon (R) 46%
George Wallace 4%
Explanation: Vietnam.


1972:
Richard Nixon (R) 57%
George McGovern (D) 42%
Explanation: Despite Watergate, McGovern was still too liberal for the country.


1976:
Gerald Ford (R) 60%
Jimmy Carter (D) 39%
Explanation: Despite Watergate, high inflation and unemployment plus a weak foreign policy are not popular.


1980:
Ronald Reagan (R) 64%
Jimmy Carter (D) 35%
Explanation: Carter's unpopular presidency, plus Reagan's popular one.


1984:
Ronald Reagan (R) 61%
Walter Mondale (D) 38%
Explanation: Despite Iran-Contra, Reagan's second term saw more economic growth and the end of the Cold War.


1988:
George Bush (R) 52%
Michael Dukakis (D) 47%
Explantation: Michael Dukakis ran a terrible campaign and was not a successful Governor, but the economy did see recession in the early 1990s.


1992:
Bill Clinton (D) 40%
George Bush (R) 36%
Ross Perot (I) 23%
Explantation: Washington became divided in 1993 and 1994, and having an independent as President would have been more popular than it was. Clinton still would have won, as people wanted a change.


1996:
Bill Clinton (D) 53%
Bob Dole (R) 42%
Ross Perot (Reform) 4%
Explanation: The great economic growth of Clinton's second term canceled out any anger towards his personal behavior.


2000:
George W. Bush (R) 53%
Al Gore (D) 46%
Explanation: George W. Bush's tax cuts led to the shortest recession in decades, his foreign policy and homeland security policies were popular during his first term, and Al Gore was a sore loser.


2004:
John Kerry (D) 51%
George W. Bush (R) 48%
Explanation: Iraq & the financial crisis


2008:
John McCain (R) 51%
Barack Obama (D) 48%
Explanation: Obamacare & the continuation and even deepening of the great recession. McCain would be at 53% or 55% had he picked a more popular running-mate.


2012:
Mitt Romney (R) 57%
Barack Obama (D) 42%
Explanation: Romney being proven right in foreign affairs, continuing economic woes, dysfunction in Washington, Obama's executive orders, and Obamacare.
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SPC
Chuck Hagel 08
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« Reply #5 on: December 09, 2014, 06:02:59 PM »

Don't kid yourself Hagel, no one would've voted for Harding with foresight. Any historian could tell you Cox was the better candidate.

I think it definitely would have been closer that IRL if knowledge of what was to come was available, but Wilson pissed off too many German and Irish Americans for Cox to prevail. Plus, electorates tend to be shortsighted, so saying your opponent will be unprecedented prosperity for nine years followed by a horrific depression probably would not be that persuasive.
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TNF
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« Reply #6 on: December 09, 2014, 11:42:29 PM »

2012: Romney
2008: McCain
2004: Kerry
2000: Gore
1996: Clinton
1992: Clinton
1988: Dukakis
1984: Reagan
1980: Reagan
1976: Ford
1972: McGovern
1968: Humphrey
1964: Goldwater
1960: Kennedy
1956: Eisenhower
1952: Eisenhower
1948: Truman
1944: Roosevelt
1940: Roosevelt
1936: Roosevelt
1932: Roosevelt
1928: Smith
1924: Coolidge
1920: Cox
1916: Hughes
1912: Roosevelt
1908: Bryan
1904: Roosevelt
1900: McKinley
1896: McKinley
1892: Harrison
1888: Harrison
1884: Cleveland
1880: Hancock
1876: Tilden
1872: Grant
1868: Grant
1864: Lincoln
1860: Lincoln
1856: Fremont
1852: Hale
1848: Van Buren
1844: Clay
1840: Van Buren
1836: Harrison
1832: Clay
1828: Adams
1824: Adams
1820: Monroe
1816: King
1812: Clinton
1808: Pinckney
1804: Jefferson
1800: Jefferson
1796: Jefferson
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #7 on: December 10, 2014, 12:34:22 AM »
« Edited: December 10, 2014, 12:43:59 AM by Skill and Chance »

Explanation: times when one party blew the economy and handled foreign policy well or vice versa would be close elections, all others would be blowouts.  If a candidate had a mixed record but won in a landslide, I generally assume the would still win narrowly.

2012: 55/43 Romney (pending 2015-16, but it would have to go really well)
2008: 51/47 Obama (would leave Dems with only 56 senators, so no Obamacare)
2004: 59/40 Kerry
2000: 55/43 Gore
1996: 52/38/10 Clinton
1992: 49/28/22 Clinton
1988: 50/48 Bush
1984: 65/33 Reagan (roughly the limit of who could be swung)
1980: 56/38 Reagan (roughly min possible incumbent support)
1976: 60/38 Ford
1972: 50/48 Nixon
1968: 55/43 Humphrey
1964: 50/48 LBJ (narrowly decided as a social issues election)
1960: 52/46 Kennedy
1956: 61/37 Ike
1952: 65/33 Ike
1948: 51/44 Truman (not sure why so many favor Dewey here?)
1944: 65/33 FDR (with foreknowledge of 22nd Amendment, why support Dewey if not GOP base?)
1940: 65/33 FDR (see 1944)
1936: 65/33 FDR (see 1944)
1932: 60/38 FDR (see 1980)
1928: 50/48 Hoover (tough, but most wouldn't mess with timeline in 1930's- risk of dictatorship)
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TheElectoralBoobyPrize
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« Reply #8 on: December 10, 2014, 10:04:49 AM »
« Edited: December 10, 2014, 10:10:39 AM by TheElectoralBoobyPrize »

I think the main thing to look for is how the winning party actually did in the following presidential election since that's seen as a referendum, to a large degree, on the previous four years. There are some exceptions..

2012: Seems to be Romney, but I'm going to pass on this one for now since we don't know how 2015/2016 turns out.
2008: Obama by a hair. Yes, he had problems in his first term, but I think voters were just that adamant about not giving the GOP another term after the Dubya presidency. Plus, Palin as VP.
2004: Kerry. No explanation needed.
2000: Bush by a hair. Invasion of Iraq seen as controversial, but otherwise well-regarded in his first term for how he handled 9/11. Also, even IRL he never really got the blame for the '01 recession.
1996: Clinton. Anger over Lewinsky affair countered by peace and prosperity. May be an exception to my rule, but Gore did win the popular vote.
1992: Clinton.
1988: This one's a tossup. Depends on whether voters think Dukakis would have done better on the economy. I guess I'll say Bush Sr. by a hair, because of how well Bush Sr. did on foreign policy and Dukakis wasn't well-liked.
1984: Reagan. Anger over Iran-Contra countered by peace and prosperity.
1980: Reagan.
1976: Ford. Ironically, Republicans would have voted for Carter.
1972: McGovern by a hair. However left-wing he may be, I just don't think voters would have reelected an outright crook.
1968: Um...are we assuming voters would know about Watergate even though that didn't come until Nixon's second term? I see everyone picking Humphrey, but Nixon was fairly popular in his first term.
1964: Johnson by a hair. Anger over Vietnam and social upheavals countered by Goldwater's extremism.
1960: Kennedy by a bigger margin than IRL.
1956: Everyone's picking Ike, but his second term had a number of problems. Still, his personal popularity was too great, so I'll join the bandwagon.
1952: Ike.
1948: Dewey. Truman was deeply unpopular when he left office because of Korea, MacArthur, loss of China (though Dewey couldn't have prevented that...certainly not in one year), scandals, and also McCarthy's anti-communist crusade was still being taken seriously then. Almost everything Truman is well-regarded for happened in his first term.
1944: Roosevelt by a hair.
1940: Roosevelt
1936: Roosevelt
1932: Roosevelt
1928: Smith
1924: Coolidge
1920: Harding. Teapot Dome countered by peace and prosperity.
1916: Hughes. Basically, 2004 with the parties reversed.
1912: Wilson. Disagreeing with everyone, but he was well-liked enough in his first term.
1908: Taft simply because Bryan was seen as too much of a joke. Now, if the Democrats had nominated someone else....
1904: TR
1900: McKinley.

I'm going to stop there for now.


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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #9 on: December 10, 2014, 09:46:15 PM »
« Edited: December 10, 2014, 09:48:18 PM by Skill and Chance »

Actually, the more I think about this, the changes would be far more profound.

e.g. If pro-Civil Rights Republicans in 1876 were told what was really going to happen in the South from 1880-1964, there would be massive strategic voting for Tilden.  That would likely lead to major voting rights legislation the next time Republicans have full control, which means the Solid South would probably never happen.
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Free Bird
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« Reply #10 on: December 10, 2014, 09:48:00 PM »

Is everyone ignoring that with the contiuities you're all creating, Kerry would primary Gore, right?
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NHI
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« Reply #11 on: December 11, 2014, 08:37:40 AM »

2012: Romney
2008: McCain
2004: Kerry
2000: Bush
1996: Clinton
1992: Clinton
1988: Bush
1984: Reagan
1980: Reagan
1976: Ford
1972: Nixon
1968: Nixon
1964: Goldwater
1960: Kennedy
1956: Eisenhower
1952: Eisenhower
1948: Dewey
1944: FDR
1940: FDR
1936: FDR
1932: FDR
1928: Smith
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SPC
Chuck Hagel 08
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« Reply #12 on: December 11, 2014, 10:37:51 AM »

Is everyone ignoring that with the contiuities you're all creating, Kerry would primary Gore, right?

I had intended for each election to be evaluated separately, with each electorate knowing what happens in the future until 2014.
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sentinel
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« Reply #13 on: December 11, 2014, 10:54:34 AM »

...do the electorates have foresight about how the alternate presidency would go?
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SPC
Chuck Hagel 08
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« Reply #14 on: December 11, 2014, 11:16:33 AM »
« Edited: December 11, 2014, 02:15:35 PM by SPC »

...do the electorates have foresight about how the alternate presidency would go?

No, since that would require information that the posters on here (or anyone else in this universe) do not have access to.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #15 on: December 11, 2014, 12:40:31 PM »

Guys Nixon would not win a 1972 election with foresight. That's the craziest thing I've ever heard.

There was actually a poll done a few years ago with present day voters asked how they would have voted in past election. Someone posted it here and made uniform swing maps, but I've never been able to find it again.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #16 on: December 11, 2014, 02:47:43 PM »

More thoughts on strategic voting:

2008: As I mentioned, you can punish Bush-era R's and avoid D overreach just by voting in a few more R senators, no need to vote for McCain if unhappy with Bush.

1996: Would Lewinsky foreknowledge matter given the great economy?

1960: This one could change drastically if everyone knew in advance that Catholic/Protestant identity politics would essentially play no role in future elections.  With foreknowledge of the sexual revolution and 1960's social movements, there might be mass defections of socially conservative Catholics to Nixon and socially liberal Protestants to Kennedy.  It probably ends up  looking a lot like 2004- Kennedy would lose the South and win the West Coast along with more of the Midwest and New England.

1928: Do people conclude that Smith could avert the Depression?  If not, why risk losing FDR?

1912: Massive Northern swing from Taft to Teddy Roosevelt?
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NewYorkExpress
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« Reply #17 on: December 12, 2014, 12:40:37 AM »

Well, we wouldn't have Nixon to kick around any more...
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Oldiesfreak1854
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« Reply #18 on: December 15, 2014, 09:30:52 PM »

1789: George Washington
1792: George Washington
1796: Thomas Jefferson
1800: Thomas Jefferson
1804: Thomas Jefferson
1808: James Madison
1812: James Madison
1816: James Monroe
1820: James Monroe
1824: Andrew Jackson
1828: Andrew Jackson
1832: Andrew Jackson
1836: William H. Harrison
1840: Martin Van Buren
1844: James K. Polk
1848: Lewis Cass
1852: Winfield Scott
1856: John C. Fremont
1860: Stephen Douglas
1864: George B. McClellan
1868: Ulysses S. Grant
1872: Horace Greeley
1876: Samuel J. Tilden
1880: Winfield S. Hancock
1884: Grover Cleveland
1888: Grover Cleveland
1892: Benjamin Harrison
1896: William McKinley
1900: William Jennings Bryan
1904: Theodore Roosevelt
1908: William Jennings Bryan
1912: Woodrow Wilson
1916: Charles Evans Hughes
1920: James Cox
1924: Calvin Coolidge
1928: Al Smith
1932: Franklin D. Roosevelt
1936: Franklin D. Roosevelt
1940: Franklin D. Roosevelt
1944: Franklin D. Roosevelt
1948: Thomas E. Dewey
1952: Dwight D. Eisenhower
1956: Dwight D. Eisenhower
1960: John F. Kennedy
1964: Lyndon B. Johnson
1968: Hubert Humphrey
1972: George McGovern
1976: Gerald Ford
1980: Ronald Reagan
1984: Ronald Reagan
1988: George H. W. Bush
1992: Bill Clinton
1996: Bill Clinton
2000: Al Gore
2004: John Kerry
2008: Barack Obama
2012: Mitt Romney
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