TheElectoralBoobyPrize
Jr. Member
Posts: 1,529
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« on: December 10, 2014, 10:04:49 AM » |
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« edited: December 10, 2014, 10:10:39 AM by TheElectoralBoobyPrize »
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I think the main thing to look for is how the winning party actually did in the following presidential election since that's seen as a referendum, to a large degree, on the previous four years. There are some exceptions..
2012: Seems to be Romney, but I'm going to pass on this one for now since we don't know how 2015/2016 turns out. 2008: Obama by a hair. Yes, he had problems in his first term, but I think voters were just that adamant about not giving the GOP another term after the Dubya presidency. Plus, Palin as VP. 2004: Kerry. No explanation needed. 2000: Bush by a hair. Invasion of Iraq seen as controversial, but otherwise well-regarded in his first term for how he handled 9/11. Also, even IRL he never really got the blame for the '01 recession. 1996: Clinton. Anger over Lewinsky affair countered by peace and prosperity. May be an exception to my rule, but Gore did win the popular vote. 1992: Clinton. 1988: This one's a tossup. Depends on whether voters think Dukakis would have done better on the economy. I guess I'll say Bush Sr. by a hair, because of how well Bush Sr. did on foreign policy and Dukakis wasn't well-liked. 1984: Reagan. Anger over Iran-Contra countered by peace and prosperity. 1980: Reagan. 1976: Ford. Ironically, Republicans would have voted for Carter. 1972: McGovern by a hair. However left-wing he may be, I just don't think voters would have reelected an outright crook. 1968: Um...are we assuming voters would know about Watergate even though that didn't come until Nixon's second term? I see everyone picking Humphrey, but Nixon was fairly popular in his first term. 1964: Johnson by a hair. Anger over Vietnam and social upheavals countered by Goldwater's extremism. 1960: Kennedy by a bigger margin than IRL. 1956: Everyone's picking Ike, but his second term had a number of problems. Still, his personal popularity was too great, so I'll join the bandwagon. 1952: Ike. 1948: Dewey. Truman was deeply unpopular when he left office because of Korea, MacArthur, loss of China (though Dewey couldn't have prevented that...certainly not in one year), scandals, and also McCarthy's anti-communist crusade was still being taken seriously then. Almost everything Truman is well-regarded for happened in his first term. 1944: Roosevelt by a hair. 1940: Roosevelt 1936: Roosevelt 1932: Roosevelt 1928: Smith 1924: Coolidge 1920: Harding. Teapot Dome countered by peace and prosperity. 1916: Hughes. Basically, 2004 with the parties reversed. 1912: Wilson. Disagreeing with everyone, but he was well-liked enough in his first term. 1908: Taft simply because Bryan was seen as too much of a joke. Now, if the Democrats had nominated someone else.... 1904: TR 1900: McKinley.
I'm going to stop there for now.
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