Sabato: Initial 2016 Senate ratings

[user12345]

Nevada should be a toss up and NH will be if Hassan runs. Louisiana should probably be Safe R too.

[SWE]

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lol. McCain being the nominee is the only way for Republicans to lose this seat.

[Maxwell]

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lol. McCain being the nominee is the only way for Republicans to lose this seat.

People shouldn't comment on McCain until they've seen his approvals. He's in Lieberman range.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I could definitely see this happening, I thought Portman was initially favored, but we should and must win Ohio and thus win the election if we gonna beat Jeb, and FL would be slightly favored for Rubio because of Jeb homestate status.

[Keystone Phil]

From a non-partisan, analytical take, why "should" Ohio be a Dem favored at this point? Portman clearly has an advantage.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We don't have candidates yet, so Dems are favored to net gain seats. AK, OH, NC and FL fall in the same category as lean G O P but can be competitive, if Hilary tops 280 electoral votes like Obama did.  But otherwise NH, not OHIO, is our tipping point state for control of Senate.

[SWE]

OC is the only poster talking sense in this thread tbh.

[I Will Not Be Wrong]

Happy to see Toomey and Johnson races as rose ups. I think both, especially Ron Johnson, are too conservative for their respective states.

[Xing]

I'd only change a few ratings.

IA -> Likely R: There's still a chance that Grassley could retire, which would immediately make this a toss-up.

KY -> Likely R: Since Paul might have higher ambitions, I don't think this one can be called safe just yet.

LA -> Safe R: Let's face it. LA is not winnable for Democrats anymore.

NH -> Toss-Up: Especially if Hassan runs, Ayotte is not safe in a state like this.

OH -> Likely R: Since Portman has committed to running again, I really don't think he has much to worry about, especially since the Democratic bench is so weak. I only see this one going Democratic in a wave.

I agree with NV being Lean D. Unless Sandoval runs, Reid doesn't have much to worry about.