When will a Democratic presidential candidate next win a majority of whites?
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  When will a Democratic presidential candidate next win a majority of whites?
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2016
 
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Author Topic: When will a Democratic presidential candidate next win a majority of whites?  (Read 8729 times)
Phony Moderate
Obamaisdabest
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« on: December 11, 2014, 01:28:17 PM »

?
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Chunk Yogurt for President!
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« Reply #1 on: December 11, 2014, 03:19:10 PM »

Probably some time in the next 50 years.
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Rockefeller GOP
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« Reply #2 on: December 11, 2014, 04:58:53 PM »

They won't win a majority of Whites until they stop pandering to minorities so often.  I don't think most Democrats have a problem with losing Whites, so probably not anytime soon.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #3 on: December 11, 2014, 04:59:25 PM »

They won't win a majority of Whites until they stop pandering to minorities so often.  I don't think most Democrats have a problem with losing Whites, so probably not anytime soon.

Why do whites care if Democrats pander to minorities or not? Unless...
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All Along The Watchtower
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« Reply #4 on: December 11, 2014, 07:09:45 PM »

They won't win a majority of Whites until they stop pandering to minorities so often.

Gross.
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Rockefeller GOP
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« Reply #5 on: December 11, 2014, 07:31:14 PM »

They won't win a majority of Whites until they stop pandering to minorities so often.

Gross.

I'm not saying it's a bad thing.  It's simply the opposite of pandering to Whites.  There are enough racist Whites out there - and studies suggest they tend to be concentrated in the working class and in the South - who won't vote for a party associated with strictly minority interests.  Is that sad?  Yes, quite.  But it's the truth.

IceSpear: Exactly.  There are, sadly, a lot of racist people out there.  Additionally, on average, Whites tend to have higher incomes (associated, based on exit polls, with voting Republican).  When you combine those two, you get 55-60% of Whites voting Republican.
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Vosem
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« Reply #6 on: December 12, 2014, 01:35:45 AM »

They haven't since Johnson, right? I guess the answer is 'not anytime in the foreseeable future'.
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #7 on: December 12, 2014, 03:07:55 AM »

40 - 50 years from now. For the time being Democrats are "too concentrated on minorities" in the eyes of many whites, who think that it's done at their expense.
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Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck
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« Reply #8 on: December 12, 2014, 10:44:08 AM »

I hope never outside of a major landslide or transcendental leader like FDR, at least until racism and the race divide is truly destroyed.  To appeal to whites means, at least for the time being, that you are spurning minorities in many ways. 
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MATTROSE94
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« Reply #9 on: December 12, 2014, 06:15:26 PM »

Probably not until at least the 2040s or later.
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Mister Mets
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« Reply #10 on: December 12, 2014, 08:29:07 PM »

It could happen, but it's unlikely.

Right now, the only chance I see of this happening is a popular Democratic president winning reelection, and it probably has to be a Democrat who takes over after a Republican President. So, the earliest it could happen is 2024.

The 2012 Senate election in Missori is instructive, pitting an incumbent Democrat against an incompetent challenger. Exit polls showed a higher white vote for Akin.

http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/results/senate/exit-polls?state=mo

He technically didn't get a majority as a high number of voters (over 6 percent) supported the libertarian candidate. And that's another reason it might not happen in the current environment. If a Democrat looks like he or she will win in a landslide, voters who don't like the Republican might support a third-party choice.
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TheElectoralBoobyPrize
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« Reply #11 on: December 12, 2014, 08:42:19 PM »

Even if a Democrat was winning by the margin LBJ beat Goldwater, it's still not clear he/she'd win the white vote, assuming the other racial groups voted the way they typically do.
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TDAS04
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« Reply #12 on: December 12, 2014, 09:05:32 PM »

Probably not until at least the 2040s or later.
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« Reply #13 on: December 12, 2014, 11:45:25 PM »

states that have high black populations like...West Virginia

...
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« Reply #14 on: December 13, 2014, 01:56:04 PM »

They won't win a majority of Whites until they stop pandering to minorities so often.

Gross.

I'm not saying it's a bad thing.  It's simply the opposite of pandering to Whites.  There are enough racist Whites out there - and studies suggest they tend to be concentrated in the working class and in the South - who won't vote for a party associated with strictly minority interests.  Is that sad?  Yes, quite.  But it's the truth.

IceSpear: Exactly.  There are, sadly, a lot of racist people out there.  Additionally, on average, Whites tend to have higher incomes (associated, based on exit polls, with voting Republican).  When you combine those two, you get 55-60% of Whites voting Republican.

Pandering to minorities, if you want to call it that, is not the main reason they don't get a majority of whites - except in the sense that getting high numbers of the minority vote is what them to be competitive in spite of losing a majority of whites.  Democrats won't win a majority of whites unless they feel it is necessary to their existence and so change their party accordingly - just as Republicans won't become competitive among minorities until they change under the pain of demography.
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BaconBacon96
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« Reply #15 on: December 13, 2014, 07:11:00 PM »

They won't until this current Party System ends.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #16 on: December 13, 2014, 07:44:20 PM »

There either has to be a) a major political re-alignment or b) a 20 point landslide
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Libertarian Socialist Dem
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« Reply #17 on: December 22, 2014, 07:26:07 PM »

They haven't since Johnson, right? I guess the answer is 'not anytime in the foreseeable future'.

Clinton almost tied for the white vote in 96 I believe. Nobody else has gotten that close.
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Obama-Biden Democrat
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« Reply #18 on: December 22, 2014, 09:13:35 PM »

They haven't since Johnson, right? I guess the answer is 'not anytime in the foreseeable future'.

Clinton almost tied for the white vote in 96 I believe. Nobody else has gotten that close.

Could you imagine if Democrat lost whites by only 1 point ? It would be a 1984 Landslide with today's demographics.
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Libertarian Socialist Dem
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« Reply #19 on: December 22, 2014, 11:30:49 PM »

They haven't since Johnson, right? I guess the answer is 'not anytime in the foreseeable future'.

Clinton almost tied for the white vote in 96 I believe. Nobody else has gotten that close.

Could you imagine if Democrat lost whites by only 1 point ? It would be a 1984 Landslide with today's demographics.

Without a doubt. I think that with a white nominee in 08 it could have happened considering how anti-Republican the mood in the country was at that moment.
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DS0816
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« Reply #20 on: December 24, 2014, 04:58:06 PM »

The problem with this question is that it doesn't give weight to the states outside the Old Confederacy. For example, in 2008 Barack Obama, the Democratic presidential pickup winner, received 43 percent of the white vote nationwide. In the state of Louisiana, whites gave him only 14 percent. It was saying something given that Obama's Democratic predecessor, Bill Clinton, carried Louisiana in both his elections from the 1990s. But, not only that, there is consideration that bellwether Iowa saw its white vote carry for Obama not only with his Democratic pickup of the state, from 2008, but also with his re-election, from 2012, in which he received reduced numbers with his electoral-vote score and popular-vote percentage margin. But, of course, we take the OP's question on a national scale and, if suckered into believing, we could be prone to think it's as compelling as the OP suggests. Here is the reality check: Mitt Romney had the same national-level support of white voters, as the Republican nominee from 2012, as George Bush did, with winning the presidency from 1988, and the difference is stark. There are less whites with having weight on the national outcome. Bush was good for 40 states and 426 electoral votes. Romney was good for 24 states and 206 electoral votes.
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HillaryLandslide2016
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« Reply #21 on: December 24, 2014, 05:04:08 PM »

Hillary will win white women. She will probably lose white men. Nevertheless, I think she will carry a majority of the white vote.
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Chunk Yogurt for President!
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« Reply #22 on: December 24, 2014, 05:10:43 PM »

Hillary will win white women. She will probably lose white men. Nevertheless, I think she will carry a majority of the white vote.

How dare you suggest that Hillary will lose among any demographic?
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HillaryLandslide2016
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« Reply #23 on: December 24, 2014, 05:48:48 PM »

Hillary will win white women. She will probably lose white men. Nevertheless, I think she will carry a majority of the white vote.

How dare you suggest that Hillary will lose among any demographic?
Because white men from the South, Midwest and West are racist, sexist, old and angry and will vote for whomever nutjob the GOP puts in. No doubt she will win white voters here in NY.
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Lincoln Republican
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« Reply #24 on: December 24, 2014, 06:06:38 PM »

If Democrats ever win a majority of whites, then they will start taking the white vote for granted, just the same way as they take the black vote for granted now.
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