AR-Sen: Beebe isn't running
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  AR-Sen: Beebe isn't running
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Author Topic: AR-Sen: Beebe isn't running  (Read 2580 times)
Miles
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« on: December 11, 2014, 02:11:44 PM »

Article.

It was just not gonna happen.
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justfollowingtheelections
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« Reply #1 on: December 11, 2014, 02:20:54 PM »

He sounds like a decent guy.  Any politicians who says no to lobbying jobs is good in my book.  Too bad he's not running for a senate seat.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #2 on: December 11, 2014, 02:25:35 PM »

Yep. Looks like Boozman faces a Some Dude or sacrificial lamb.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #3 on: December 11, 2014, 02:39:06 PM »

This was the most obvious announcement in history. Safe R.
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NewYorkExpress
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« Reply #4 on: December 11, 2014, 03:52:32 PM »

This was the most obvious announcement in history. Safe R.

It would've been Safe R even if he did run, a lot like what happened to Linda Lingle in 2012,
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #5 on: December 11, 2014, 04:03:39 PM »

Would have been Lean/Likely R with him in the race,  but with him out, AR is safe even if Boozman retires.
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Vega
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« Reply #6 on: December 11, 2014, 04:21:19 PM »

I don't blame him. It'd be a tough slog.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #7 on: December 11, 2014, 04:39:56 PM »

Damn, safe R now. Sad
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IceSpear
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« Reply #8 on: December 11, 2014, 04:45:25 PM »

This was the most obvious announcement in history. Safe R.

It would've been Safe R even if he did run, a lot like what happened to Linda Lingle in 2012,

Roll Eyes

For one thing, you can't extrapolate a single election to all of them with even a slightly similar dynamic. Secondly, Lingle was never as popular as Beebe is. Thirdly, Obama was cracking 70% in his home state whereas the Republican nominee won't even crack 60% in Arkansas in 2016. Finally, Lingle still outperformed Romney by 14 points.
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« Reply #9 on: December 11, 2014, 05:31:32 PM »

This was the most obvious announcement in history. Safe R.

It would've been Safe R even if he did run, a lot like what happened to Linda Lingle in 2012,

Roll Eyes

For one thing, you can't extrapolate a single election to all of them with even a slightly similar dynamic. Secondly, Lingle was never as popular as Beebe is. Thirdly, Obama was cracking 70% in his home state whereas the Republican nominee won't even crack 60% in Arkansas in 2016. Finally, Lingle still outperformed Romney by 14 points.

Romney got 60% in AR. Sure, if Hillary is the Dem. nominee she will narrow the margin there, but if the Dem. Nominee is someone else, the results in AR will probably be similar to 2012.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #10 on: December 11, 2014, 05:33:59 PM »

Safe R -> Safe R

Devastating news for the party in the minority.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #11 on: December 11, 2014, 05:37:30 PM »

This was the most obvious announcement in history. Safe R.

It would've been Safe R even if he did run, a lot like what happened to Linda Lingle in 2012,

Roll Eyes

For one thing, you can't extrapolate a single election to all of them with even a slightly similar dynamic. Secondly, Lingle was never as popular as Beebe is. Thirdly, Obama was cracking 70% in his home state whereas the Republican nominee won't even crack 60% in Arkansas in 2016. Finally, Lingle still outperformed Romney by 14 points.

Romney got 60% in AR. Sure, if Hillary is the Dem. nominee she will narrow the margin there, but if the Dem. Nominee is someone else, the results in AR will probably be similar to 2012.

Any white Democrat will improve by at least a point, meaning the Republican will not hit 60. This is kind of beside the point anyway. The relevance is that Obama did much better in Hawaii in 2012 than whatever Republican will do in Arkansas in 2016, so he had more coattails.
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Panda Express
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« Reply #12 on: December 11, 2014, 06:51:05 PM »

Unsurprising. Beshear isn't going to run in Kentucky either.
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #13 on: December 12, 2014, 03:40:06 AM »

Even Beebe would have difficulties in present day Arkansas. The hatred of "D-label" and Obama  markedly increased in that state since 2010 and his last victory.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #14 on: December 12, 2014, 09:20:02 AM »

Charlie Baker isn't challenging Elizabeth Warren in 2018, either.
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #15 on: December 12, 2014, 09:35:20 AM »
« Edited: December 12, 2014, 09:38:26 AM by smoltchanov »

Charlie Baker isn't challenging Elizabeth Warren in 2018, either.

Baker wants to be a Governor AFAIK....))) And, probably, only him...
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Miles
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« Reply #16 on: December 12, 2014, 11:32:03 AM »

Charlie Baker isn't challenging Elizabeth Warren in 2018, either.

Baker wants to be a Governor AFAIK....))) And, probably, only him...

Actually, a decent precedent to Beebe running against Boozman might be Kerry/Weld 1996.
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« Reply #17 on: December 12, 2014, 11:34:56 AM »

It's important to remember that MA is only purple-blue in terms of its governors - it's a DEEP BLUE state in all other respects, and that's the way it's been for decades. Warren would defeat Baker in a 2018 senate matchup, no questions asked, by a margin of 8-12 points.
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moderatevoter
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« Reply #18 on: December 12, 2014, 11:35:46 AM »

It's important to remember that MA is only purple-blue in terms of its governors - it's a DEEP BLUE state in all other respects, and that's the way it's been for decades. Warren would defeat Baker in a 2018 senate matchup, no questions asked, by a margin of 8-12 points.

Unless you're Martha Coakley, of course. Wink
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #19 on: December 12, 2014, 11:40:43 AM »

It's important to remember that MA is only purple-blue in terms of its governors - it's a DEEP BLUE state in all other respects, and that's the way it's been for decades. Warren would defeat Baker in a 2018 senate matchup, no questions asked, by a margin of 8-12 points.

Unless you're Martha Coakley, of course. Wink

Coakley is the sort of democrat who would struggle to win a Mayoral Race in D.C.
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Vega
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« Reply #20 on: December 12, 2014, 12:04:26 PM »

Coakley should run for FL-13.
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Holmes
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« Reply #21 on: December 12, 2014, 12:13:22 PM »

Safe R -> Safe R

Devastating news for the party in the minority.

Phil, if this race's rating didn't change with this announcement, how is this devastating news? Smiley
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BaconBacon96
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« Reply #22 on: December 12, 2014, 04:51:11 PM »

All hope is lost.
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Nichlemn
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« Reply #23 on: December 12, 2014, 04:59:20 PM »

Beebe would have had a fair chance had the stars all aligned. In all likelihood he would have lost comfortably, but at least he would have given Dems an opportunity.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #24 on: December 12, 2014, 05:14:09 PM »

Since the Republicans swept everything in Arkansas this cycle, they'll probably end up picking some dude state senator or a businessman/woman to run against Boozman, who is safe.
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