AR-Sen: Beebe isn't running

[IceSpear]

Damn, safe R now.

[IceSpear]

This was the most obvious announcement in history. Safe R.

It would've been Safe R even if he did run, a lot like what happened to Linda Lingle in 2012,

For one thing, you can't extrapolate a single election to all of them with even a slightly similar dynamic. Secondly, Lingle was never as popular as Beebe is. Thirdly, Obama was cracking 70% in his home state whereas the Republican nominee won't even crack 60% in Arkansas in 2016. Finally, Lingle still outperformed Romney by 14 points.

[IceSpear]

This was the most obvious announcement in history. Safe R.

It would've been Safe R even if he did run, a lot like what happened to Linda Lingle in 2012,

For one thing, you can't extrapolate a single election to all of them with even a slightly similar dynamic. Secondly, Lingle was never as popular as Beebe is. Thirdly, Obama was cracking 70% in his home state whereas the Republican nominee won't even crack 60% in Arkansas in 2016. Finally, Lingle still outperformed Romney by 14 points.

Romney got 60% in AR. Sure, if Hillary is the Dem. nominee she will narrow the margin there, but if the Dem. Nominee is someone else, the results in AR will probably be similar to 2012.

Any white Democrat will improve by at least a point, meaning the Republican will not hit 60. This is kind of beside the point anyway. The relevance is that Obama did much better in Hawaii in 2012 than whatever Republican will do in Arkansas in 2016, so he had more coattails.