AR-Sen: Beebe isn't running

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Would have been Lean/Likely R with him in the race,  but with him out, AR is safe even if Boozman retires.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

This was the most obvious announcement in history. Safe R.

It would've been Safe R even if he did run, a lot like what happened to Linda Lingle in 2012,

For one thing, you can't extrapolate a single election to all of them with even a slightly similar dynamic. Secondly, Lingle was never as popular as Beebe is. Thirdly, Obama was cracking 70% in his home state whereas the Republican nominee won't even crack 60% in Arkansas in 2016. Finally, Lingle still outperformed Romney by 14 points.

Romney got 60% in AR. Sure, if Hillary is the Dem. nominee she will narrow the margin there, but if the Dem. Nominee is someone else, the results in AR will probably be similar to 2012.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

It's important to remember that MA is only purple-blue in terms of its governors - it's a DEEP BLUE state in all other respects, and that's the way it's been for decades. Warren would defeat Baker in a 2018 senate matchup, no questions asked, by a margin of 8-12 points.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

It's important to remember that MA is only purple-blue in terms of its governors - it's a DEEP BLUE state in all other respects, and that's the way it's been for decades. Warren would defeat Baker in a 2018 senate matchup, no questions asked, by a margin of 8-12 points.

Unless you're Martha Coakley, of course.

Coakley is the sort of democrat who would struggle to win a Mayoral Race in D.C.