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Author Topic: Share interesting raw vote facts here  (Read 4470 times)
IceSpear
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« on: December 11, 2014, 06:31:55 PM »
« edited: December 11, 2014, 08:12:03 PM by IceSpear »

I wasn't sure where else to put this, but in making this thread I noticed that when you pay attention to raw votes rather than just percentages, you can find out some crazy things.

When most of us look at elections, we tend to be focused on just the percentages. But if you look in terms of raw votes, you can sometimes be shocked at what you find. For example, in Vermont, where Scott Milne almost upset Peter Shumlin in a race nobody thought was competitive, Milne actually received 5,000 less votes than Romney got in 2012, even though Romney lost the state 67-31. Pretty crazy.

Now, how is this relevant to Walker? In both 2010 and 2014, Walker actually got less raw votes than John McCain did in 2008, even as he was losing the state to Obama 56-42.

McCain 2008: 1,262,393
Walker 2014: 1,259,021
Walker 2010: 1,128,941

However, it's worth noting in the recall he did outperform John McCain, getting 1,335,585 (though still less than the 1,407,966 Romney got).

Is it just me, or does this make Walker look a lot less formidable? I still think he'd be a strong candidate, but this certainly puts things in a different light. In addition, I have to wonder how many Obama/Walker/Walker/Obama/Baldwin/Walker voters there actually are. I'm assuming it's not many, and that Democratic voters simply just don't turn out in off years, a problem replicated across the entire country.

Along with the ones in that post, here's some more: Mitt Romney, while losing Illinois 58-41 in 2012, actually got 200,000 more votes than Dick Durbin did this year, who won 53-43. And another: Walter Dalton, who lost to Pat McCrory by double digits in 2012, actually got ~500,000 more votes than Thom Tillis did this year. Elizabeth Dole, while losing by 9, got about ~450,000 more votes in 2008 than Tillis did in 2014. Tom Wolf, while winning by 10, only got about 100,000 more votes than Dan Onorato who lost by 9. Wolf got ~600,000 less votes than Tom Smith, who lost to Casey by 9 in 2012.

While everyone talks about how turnout dropoff hurts the Democrats (and it does hurt them disproportionately), the fact remains that many Republicans don't bother to vote in midterms either. If Republicans could get almost all of their presidential base to vote in midterms while Democratic turnout stayed the same as now, it could be a wave that makes 2010/2014 look like a ripple in the kiddy pool.
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greenforest32
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« Reply #1 on: December 11, 2014, 07:45:03 PM »

If I'm doing the math right on the 2012 Presidential election, it looks like Republicans' raw vote margin in the 7 most populous states they won (TX, GA, NC, AZ, IN, TN, MO; population 72m) was entirely offset by the raw vote margin Democrats had in California (population 38m): 2.9m v 3.0m
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Boston Bread
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« Reply #2 on: December 11, 2014, 09:05:27 PM »
« Edited: December 11, 2014, 09:17:08 PM by New Canadaland »

Obama 2012 vs Cochran 2014 in MS:
562949 Obama
378481 Cochran

In fact Obama "defeats" Cochran by 20 points looking at the raw vote numbers.
Looks like Childers, who lost by 22, did poorly in the black belt. It's almost entirely due to turnout - in Washington county where Obama got >70% of the vote, Childers got less votes than Romney while still winning the county. The reduced margin among whites did almost nothing. Asking for presidential level black turnout in off years might be too much but if it happened...

Edit:
Even more astounding!!!
Obama 795696
Sessions 795606

Obama defeats Sessions by a hair! Even while running uncontested in the south Obama still gets more votes than you! Although to be fair, many democrats didn't vote in that contest. Bentley got 750231 votes so he also keeps it close to Obama in raw votes despite having 64 vs 97% of the vote.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #3 on: December 11, 2014, 10:46:56 PM »

Obama 2012 vs Cochran 2014 in MS:
562949 Obama
378481 Cochran

In fact Obama "defeats" Cochran by 20 points looking at the raw vote numbers.
Looks like Childers, who lost by 22, did poorly in the black belt. It's almost entirely due to turnout - in Washington county where Obama got >70% of the vote, Childers got less votes than Romney while still winning the county. The reduced margin among whites did almost nothing. Asking for presidential level black turnout in off years might be too much but if it happened...

Edit:
Even more astounding!!!
Obama 795696
Sessions 795606

Obama defeats Sessions by a hair! Even while running uncontested in the south Obama still gets more votes than you! Although to be fair, many democrats didn't vote in that contest. Bentley got 750231 votes so he also keeps it close to Obama in raw votes despite having 64 vs 97% of the vote.

Yeah, those are both pretty crazy. This is the type of stuff I was hoping to see. Smiley
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RI
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« Reply #4 on: December 11, 2014, 11:52:02 PM »

Obama 2012 vs Republican Senate Candidate 2014

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Boston Bread
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« Reply #5 on: December 12, 2014, 01:05:00 AM »

Well, Alaska is an interesting outlier.
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RTX
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« Reply #6 on: December 12, 2014, 08:53:03 PM »

Alachua County, Florida in the 1928 presidential election.
Alfred Smith - Democrat - 35.01%
Norman Thomas - Socialist - 32.18%
William Foster - Communist - 30.45%

Statewide, Thomas only got 1.59% and Foster got 1.46%. The 1924 and 1932 election results for the county were, more or less, in line with the state results.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #7 on: December 12, 2014, 09:13:42 PM »

Obama 2012 vs Republican Senate Candidate 2014



When its Romney vs. Dem Senate candidate, Romney defeats every one except Schatz, Merkley, Markey, and Reed.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #8 on: December 15, 2014, 03:57:20 AM »

Ernst only got 24,000 more votes than Christopher Reed, Harkin's opponent in 2008.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Iowa,_2008
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RI
realisticidealist
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« Reply #9 on: December 15, 2014, 12:02:46 PM »

Obama 2012 vs Republican Senate Candidate 2014



When its Romney vs. Dem Senate candidate, Romney defeats every one except Schatz, Merkley, Markey, and Reed.

Here's the map:

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DS0816
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« Reply #10 on: December 15, 2014, 05:38:03 PM »

This thread has caused me to re-think my whole life.

This thread, as well as the new one on Ted Cruz-vs.-Elizabeth Warren (2016), has me wondering if Dave Leip feels righteous contempt for many of the Atlas members.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #11 on: December 16, 2014, 03:00:54 AM »
« Edited: December 16, 2014, 05:38:27 AM by IceSpear »

Jim Gilmore, who got crushed by eleventy billion points by Warner in 2008, actually got more raw votes than Warner did in 2014. Thanks Miles!

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=204258.msg4416625#msg4416625

Paul Sadler 2012 (who lost to Cruz by 17) also beats John Cornyn 2014 (who won by 28) by ~300,000 votes.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #12 on: December 16, 2014, 06:52:17 AM »
« Edited: December 16, 2014, 07:03:36 AM by ElectionsGuy »

Tennessee:

Barack Obama (2012): 960,709 (50.2%)
Bill Haslam (2014): 951,215 (49.8%)

Nevada:

John Kerry (2004): 397,190 (50.7%)
Brian Sandoval (2014): 386,340 (49.3%)

(consider its population growth in those ten years!)

Vermont:

Mitt Romney (2012): 92,698 (50.9%)
Peter Shumlin (2014): 89,509 (49.1%)
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Illuminati Blood Drinker
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« Reply #13 on: December 17, 2014, 08:00:28 PM »

Mississippi:
Barack Obama (2008): 554,662 (59.44%)
Thad Cochran (2014): 378,481 (40.56%)

Kentucky:
Mitch McConnell (2014): 806,787 (51.78%)
Barack Obama (2008): 751,985 (48.22%)

Alabama:
Barack Obama (2008): 813,749 (50.56%)
Jeff Sessions (2014): 795,606 (49.44%)

Oklahoma:
James Inhofe (2014): 558,166 (52.62%)
Barack Obama (2008): 502,496 (47.38%)

South Carolina:
Barack Obama (2008): 862,449 (56.17%)
Lindsey Graham (2014): 672,941 (43.83%)

Dat Obama turnout machine.
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Pessimistic Antineutrino
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« Reply #14 on: December 17, 2014, 09:37:19 PM »

Arkansas
Mark Pryor (2014): 334,174 (39.43%)

In Arkansas, Mark Pryor received less votes than the following people:

Mark Pryor (2008): 804,678 (79.53%)
Mark Pryor (2002): 433,306 (53.90%)
Tim Hutchinson (2002): 370,653 (46.10%)
Tim Hutchinson (1996): 445,942 (52.7%)
Winston Bryant (1996): 400,241 (47.3%)
David Pryor (1990): 493,910 (99.83%)
David Pryor (1984): 502,341 (57.35%)
Ed Bethune (1984): 373,615 (42.65%)

That's every single Class 2 senate nominee since 1984. I couldn't find raw data on the 1978 race, but the Republican got just 16% of the vote so chances are Pryor did better than him, at least.
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Miles
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« Reply #15 on: December 17, 2014, 10:24:04 PM »

^ Yep, Pryor got less votes than his dad in 1978, but more than the Republican.
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Clarko95 📚💰📈
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« Reply #16 on: December 21, 2014, 07:42:39 PM »

In 1948, Harry Truman carried Illinois 50.1% with 1,994,715 votes.

In 2014, Dick Durbin retained his Senate seat there 53.6% with 1,929,637 votes.


65,000 vote difference. Shows how low turnout was with a population 2 times larger since then.
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SingingAnalyst
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« Reply #17 on: April 30, 2015, 09:56:56 PM »

In 1964, more votes were cast for Goldwater in MS than the total vote in any previous election. In 1968, more votes were cast for Wallace in MS than the total vote in any previous election. Similar facts apply to AL. In Boston and San Francisco, Carter's 1976 vote total was down 20-25% from McGovern's despite a 40% increase nationwide. In Alabama, Bush 41 in 1992 retained 99% of his 1988 vote-- the highest percentage of any state.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #18 on: April 30, 2015, 10:14:27 PM »

1928 Presidential Election in New York:

Hoover: 2,193,344 (49.8%)
Smith: 2,089,863 (47.4%)

2014 New York Governor:

Cuomo: 2,069,480 (54.2%)
Astorino: 1,536,879 (40.2%)

New York had a population of about 12 million at the time. It has more than 19 million now.
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SingingAnalyst
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« Reply #19 on: April 30, 2015, 10:26:00 PM »

As Bush 41 might say, I smell apathy.
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Flake
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« Reply #20 on: April 30, 2015, 10:50:34 PM »

1928 Presidential Election in New York:

Hoover: 2,193,344 (49.8%)
Smith: 2,089,863 (47.4%)

2014 New York Governor:

Cuomo: 2,069,480 (54.2%)
Astorino: 1,536,879 (40.2%)

New York had a population of about 12 million at the time. It has more than 19 million now.

tbf progressives weren't going to turn out in big numbers because he's cuomo, and conservatives didn't turn out for the same reason
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solarstorm
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« Reply #21 on: May 03, 2015, 05:36:48 PM »

Obama received in the 2008 primary election in King County, TX, more than twice as many votes (27) as in both general elections (5+8) combined.
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Thunderbird is the word
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« Reply #22 on: May 03, 2015, 05:43:26 PM »

1928 Presidential Election in New York:

Hoover: 2,193,344 (49.8%)
Smith: 2,089,863 (47.4%)

2014 New York Governor:

Cuomo: 2,069,480 (54.2%)
Astorino: 1,536,879 (40.2%)

New York had a population of about 12 million at the time. It has more than 19 million now.

tbf progressives weren't going to turn out in big numbers because he's cuomo, and conservatives didn't turn out for the same reason

Plenty of conservatives hated and still do hate Cuomo also because they saw him as a gun grabber. It's miraculous that he still managed to win while being hated by both the left and the right.
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solarstorm
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« Reply #23 on: May 03, 2015, 10:32:59 PM »

The last time New York delivered more votes for the GOP than Texas was 1988.

The last time the Republicans didn't receive the most votes from California was 1960.
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SingingAnalyst
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« Reply #24 on: May 04, 2015, 11:18:54 AM »

In 1988, Bush got more than 200,000 more votes in MA than in AL, even though Dukakis was from MA. In 1992, Bush's votes totals from MA and AL were virtually identical (within +/-1000 or so).
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