I wasn't sure where else to put this, but in making
this thread I noticed that when you pay attention to raw votes rather than just percentages, you can find out some crazy things.
When most of us look at elections, we tend to be focused on just the percentages. But if you look in terms of raw votes, you can sometimes be shocked at what you find. For example, in Vermont, where Scott Milne almost upset Peter Shumlin in a race nobody thought was competitive, Milne actually received 5,000 less votes than Romney got in 2012, even though Romney lost the state 67-31. Pretty crazy.
Now, how is this relevant to Walker? In both 2010 and 2014, Walker actually got less raw votes than John McCain did in 2008, even as he was losing the state to Obama 56-42.
McCain 2008: 1,262,393
Walker 2014: 1,259,021
Walker 2010: 1,128,941
However, it's worth noting in the recall he did outperform John McCain, getting 1,335,585 (though still less than the 1,407,966 Romney got).
Is it just me, or does this make Walker look a lot less formidable? I still think he'd be a strong candidate, but this certainly puts things in a different light. In addition, I have to wonder how many Obama/Walker/Walker/Obama/Baldwin/Walker voters there actually are. I'm assuming it's not many, and that Democratic voters simply just don't turn out in off years, a problem replicated across the entire country.
Along with the ones in that post, here's some more: Mitt Romney, while losing Illinois 58-41 in 2012, actually got 200,000 more votes than Dick Durbin did this year, who won 53-43. And another: Walter Dalton, who lost to Pat McCrory by double digits in 2012, actually got ~500,000 more votes than Thom Tillis did this year. Elizabeth Dole, while losing by 9, got about ~450,000 more votes in 2008 than Tillis did in 2014. Tom Wolf, while winning by 10, only got about 100,000 more votes than Dan Onorato who lost by 9. Wolf got ~600,000 less votes than Tom Smith, who lost to Casey by 9 in 2012.
While everyone talks about how turnout dropoff hurts the Democrats (and it does hurt them disproportionately), the fact remains that many Republicans don't bother to vote in midterms either. If Republicans could get almost all of their presidential base to vote in midterms while Democratic turnout stayed the same as now, it could be a wave that makes 2010/2014 look like a ripple in the kiddy pool.
