If Romney runs, would he win the Republican nomination?

[IceSpear]

From the recent polls, he leads by 7-10 points nationwide, is deadlocked with the rest of the clowncar in IA, but is dominating in NH. So more or less the same position he was in for most of the 2012 cycle. But this time, his opponents will presumably be much stronger, and he currently has a name recognition advantage that he didn't have in 2012. What do you guys think?

Just a side note, I like how the media acts like the GOP nomination is Romney's for the taking if he wants it because of his ~10 point leads, but acts like Hillary is SO VULNERABLE!!!!! despite her ~50 point leads.

[badgate]

Just a side note, I like how the media acts like the GOP nomination is Romney's for the taking if he wants it because of his ~10 point leads, but acts like Hillary is SO VULNERABLE!!!!! despite her ~50 point leads.

Do they do that?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

*snip*
Just a side note, I like how the media acts like the GOP nomination is Romney's for the taking if he wants it because of his ~10 point leads, but acts like Hillary is SO VULNERABLE!!!!! despite her ~50 point leads.

[IceSpear]

Sorry guys, I couldn't resist putting in that comment to irk you.

Anyway, back to the topic.

[Keystone Phil]

We're having this conversation. We're really having this conversation...

[Mehmentum]

If Romney runs, its because the establishment has no one else who's viable to turn to and begs him to run again.  In that case, he has a very good chance of winning.  I don't think that situation is likely, there isn't a shortage of establishment friendly candidates this time around (Christie and Bush are the big ones, but there's also Kasich, Walker, etc.).
 

[I Will Not Be Wrong]

If Romney runs, its because the establishment has no one else who's viable to turn to and begs him to run again.  In that case, he has a very good chance of winning.  I don't think that situation is likely, there isn't a shortage of establishment friendly candidates this time around (Christie and Bush are the big ones, but there's also Kasich, Walker, etc.).
 

Agreed.And even if those 4 don't run, then the party could turn to Snyder or Graham. No need to go back to Romney.

[IceSpear]

If Romney runs, its because the establishment has no one else who's viable to turn to and begs him to run again.  In that case, he has a very good chance of winning.  I don't think that situation is likely, there isn't a shortage of establishment friendly candidates this time around (Christie and Bush are the big ones, but there's also Kasich, Walker, etc.).

The odd part is that none of those four have backed out or anything (in fact, Jeb seems to be getting slightly more likely to run, while Christie running was always a near guarantee) yet the "Romney buzz" is increasing anyway.

The poll results are pretty surprising so far, I thought it would be closer.

[GLPman]

Just a side note, I like how the media acts like the GOP nomination is Romney's for the taking if he wants it because of his ~10 point leads, but acts like Hillary is SO VULNERABLE!!!!! despite her ~50 point leads.

Actually laughed out loud at this. Thank you for the laugh.

Romney is up in the polls because many of the other [potential?] candidates have poor name recognition at this point. Romney would have a decent shot at winning the GOP nomination, but it would not be his for the taking.

[anvi]

He won't run.  Just because he gave a few speeches to support Pub candidates in midterm races doesn't mean he'll run, and media is fanning it because right now they have nothing else to report on '16.  And, besides, if Romney couldn't win in '12, he never will.

[BaconBacon96]

He won't run if Jeb does, which is appearing likely right now.

[Bull Moose Base]

If Romney runs, its because the establishment has no one else who's viable to turn to and begs him to run again.  In that case, he has a very good chance of winning.  I don't think that situation is likely, there isn't a shortage of establishment friendly candidates this time around (Christie and Bush are the big ones, but there's also Kasich, Walker, etc.).
 

This view doesn't jive with reports that big donors are trying to unite behind either Jeb, Christie or Romney, that Romney is lobbying donors to hold off on giving money to the others and that Romney worked hard in the midterms to collect chits. Romney won't need to be begged to get in. He'd be the favorite to raise the most money and so he has to be tempted. It's not that Romney would win the nomination but he won't run. It's that he won't run if he thinks he's unlikely to win. I'd say only if.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Repeat after me: Romney is NOT going to run.

[The_Doctor]

Romney is probably trying to freeze the donor players and maybe strengthen his playing hand in arguing for an establishment Republican. This sounds more like Romney machinations to keep the nomination from going to someone like Rand Paul.

Jeb Bush is definitely interested in becoming the third President Bush. I thought he would take a pass and he may yet, but the establishment seems deeply worried about a non-establishment nominee.

[Rockefeller GOP]

I tend to agree with the notion that his lead is largely based around name recognition.  If you're the average conservative, you probably don't see Cruz/Carson/Santorum having a real shot at the nomination and you probably still see Christie and Bush as insufficiently conservative, so you flock to Romney (whose lurch to the right in the primaries seems to have satisfied most conservative Republicans).

[Vega]

If he's the only establishment candidate, then yes.

[TheElectoralBoobyPrize]

Regardless of whether he would, how bad would it look if the GOP was nominating their loser from four years ago when they have so many newer, fresher candidates? For God's sake, Romney last won a general election in 2002. The same is true of Jeb, yes, but at least he hasn't already ran for president and at least his home state is one the GOP can actually carry.

[Likely Voter]

Well if Romney jumped in and competed with one or two strong mainstream candidates then no, but I still feel he is only going to get in to the race if he knows he can own the mainstream/moderate wing (both money and voters). And so I would say, "yes". But I still think that eventually a candidate will emerge that is strong enough to dominate that wing, making Romney run moot.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

Of course. There's no stronger candidate. Some people will argue that that's a reflection of the sad state of affairs for the GOP (I disagree), but it is true that the bench doesn't look very impressive.

[ShadowRocket]

I voted yes, but I think it depends. In a scenrio where Christie and/or Bush have imploded/fizzled out, and Romeny can emerge as the establishment savior, I think he does. However, if he jumps in and Christie and Jeb are still both viable, I'm not sure. I wonder if that is the scenario that could allow Paul or Cruz to sneak by since there wouldn't be a clear establishment alternative?

[NHI]

W/o Bush running Romney is the establishment candidate and wins.

[tmthforu94]

Absolutely. He would easily gain support from the establishment and most Republicans like him after 2012, with one of Republicans' key talking point being that "Romney was right and that America should have listened to him." Additionally, the reason Romney's numbers are not that impressive is because most still do not think he will run and don't want to put their support behind someone who is unlikely to. But if he were to run, a lot would quickly jump to his side, and the rest who are looking for a better alternative will quickly realize that there isn't one.

[Mister Mets]

It's not that he would win, but he could. He might even have a better chance than anyone else (although it doesn't mean his odds are even.)

He's well-positioned within a particular section of the party. Christie is tainted, and Jeb hasn't run for office since 2002.

His floor is relatively high. He doesn't have to spend as much time introducing himself to voters.

He has geographic advantages in early primary states, with high name recognition in New Hampshire and a high Mormon population in Nevada.

He's also unlikely to make rookie mistakes.

[Suburbia]

It depends. If Bush and Christie stay out, and the establishment likes him again.

[© tweed]

Well if Romney jumped in and competed with one or two strong mainstream candidates then no, but I still feel he is only going to get in to the race if he knows he can own the mainstream/moderate wing (both money and voters). And so I would say, "yes". But I still think that eventually a candidate will emerge that is strong enough to dominate that wing, making Romney run moot.

this is right