The white vote in 1948

[TheElectoralBoobyPrize]

Is there any chance Dewey won it? I'm inclined to think not, but people do sometimes say 1964 was the only postwar presidential election where D's won the white vote. Maybe what they mean is it's the only one where D's got a MAJORITY. If Truman won it, as I think is likely, it would've just been a plurality given Thurmond and Wallace.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Going by the census definition of the 1940s and 1950s which did not take out Hispanics as a separate category, I would bet Truman won it.  Blacks were not much more than 3-4% of the electorate, and Truman only got 2/3-3/4 of their vote. Other racial categories amount to only half a percent in the 1950 Census.   Even anachronistically taking Hispanics as a separate category, of about 2% of the population at the time, there were some Republican-leaning Hispanic communities such as in New Mexico, though in Texas they were overwhelmingly Democratic. My guess is Truman managed to win Non-Hispanic Whites, but it's close enough to not be able to know for sure.

[TDAS04]

I don't know about the popular vote, but Truman would probably have lost the electoral vote (and thus the election) without black voters.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

I don't know about the popular vote, but Truman would probably have lost the electoral vote (and thus the election) without black voters.

yeah, without the black vote, Truman still wins the popular but Dewey eeks out an electoral majority.

(267-226-38)
There were quite a few very close, EV rich states that year.

Asian Americans also could have made a difference in California - I'm not sure how they voted in 48.