Is Dallas County lost for the GOP?

[Mr. Illini]

For years, Dallas County TX was a Republican county. Going back from 2004, it pretty much never voted for Democratic Presidents. It voted for Obama in 2008 an 2012.

Even more amazingly, it voted for Davis and Alameel this year. In a GOP wave year that saw big margins for the GOP candidates in those Texas races.

Kiss it goodbye, I'd say, which is indicative of a growing problem for that party. They need to hold onto suburbs to survive as a party.

[Miles]

Outside of southern/west TX, Dallas is the urban county which is trending the most Democratic:



Problem for the GOP is that as long as they're winning those suburban counties (with the exception of Tarrant) 65/35 or more, they should be competitive in metro areas.

[jimrtex]

For years, Dallas County TX was a Republican county. Going back from 2004, it pretty much never voted for Democratic Presidents. It voted for Obama in 2008 an 2012.

Even more amazingly, it voted for Davis and Alameel this year. In a GOP wave year that saw big margins for the GOP candidates in those Texas races.

Kiss it goodbye, I'd say, which is indicative of a growing problem for that party. They need to hold onto suburbs to survive as a party.

Dallas County Elections has precinct election maps.  Under election results, click on "ENR WEB VIEW".

Some areas are so unwilling to vote for a Republican, that a Libertarian won in a Supreme Court race where there was no Democratic candidate.

One precinct picked at radom (3062-6156):

Straight Ticket:

Democratic 449
Republican 5
Libertarian 2
Green 0

Senate:

Democratic 525
Republican 10
Green 6
Libertarian 4

There were only 89 additional votes, that were not straight ticket, and 76 of those were for the Democratic candidate.

Supreme Court, Place 8

Democrat (no candidate):
Republican 26
Libertarian 62
Green 51

If we assume all Republicans, Libertarians, and Greens voted the party line for Senator and Supreme Court, then the Democratic voters split: Libertarian 58, Green 45, Republican 16, skipped the race 406.  Percentage-wise: Libertarian 11%, Green 8.6%, Republican 3.0%, skipped 77.3%.

[RedSLC]

The migration of conservative suburban voters from the inner-ring suburbs to the outer ring suburban counties like Collin, Denton, and Rockwall, and more recently, the more exurban counties such as Kaufman and Ellis has been a huge factor.


Dallas County partisan index, 1998-2012
1988 - color=blue]58.4-40.9 Bush, R+5[/color]
1992 - 38.7-35.0 Bush, R+4
1996 - 48.6-48.0 Dole, R+5
2000 - 52.6-44.9 Bush, R+4 (The last election where it still leaned R)
2004 - 50.4-49.0 Bush, EVEN (With D tilt)
2008 - 57.2-41.9 Obama, D+4
2012 - 57.0-41.6 Obama, D+6

Based on this, it appears the trend towards the dems began in the early 2000's, became more evident in 2004, when Bush only won it by a point and a half, and solidified between then and 2008, from the democrats sweeping all countywide elected offices in 2006 to Obama winning it by double digits in 2008.

[ElectionsGuy]

Yes, and so is Travis (Davis won 63%!). Urban areas are trending D while rural areas are trending R and suburban areas are largely stagnant. The problem in TX for Democrats is a) poor Latino turnout and b) collapse outside of large metro areas. They not only need to win the urban areas by larger margins, they need to amp up Latino turnout and start doing better in suburban counties (such as Williamson, Denton, Brazoria, etc)

Dallas County should be a given to the Democrats now.

[memphis]

The white people have run far, far away. That's really all you need to know.

[Mr. Illini]

Yes, and so is Travis (Davis won 63%!).

You have to go back considerably further (like, never) to find a time when Travis County was consistently Republican.

[ElectionsGuy]

Yes, and so is Travis (Davis won 63%!).

You have to go back considerably further (like, never) to find a time when Travis County was consistently Republican.

You only have to go back to the 90's or early 2000's to see either GOP victories or single digit Democratic margins there. Point - it used to be much less Democratic relative to the state than it is now.

[Sol]

Yes, and so is Travis (Davis won 63%!).

You have to go back considerably further (like, never) to find a time when Travis County was consistently Republican.

You only have to go back to the 90's or early 2000's to see either GOP victories or single digit Democratic margins there. Point - it used to be much less Democratic relative to the state than it is now.

It should be noted that Bush barely won Travis just with Nader+home state.

[publicunofficial]

It's started to perform all other big city counties do (Cook, Los Angeles, ect.) Unless there's some major political realignment where minorities and urban voters begin to support the Republican party, the GOP doesn't really have a chance there.


The suburbs, however, like Fort Worth, Garland, and Plano are all solidly Republican.

[memphis]

It's started to perform all other big city counties do (Cook, Los Angeles, ect.)

Not really. Cook and Los Angeles are much more Democratic than Dallas is.

[All Along The Watchtower]

It's started to perform all other big city counties do (Cook, Los Angeles, ect.)

Not really. Cook and Los Angeles are much more Democratic than Dallas is.

Very true.

[Reginald]

Ft. Worth isn't a suburb of Dallas. That's ridiculous.

But anyway, yeah Dallas County's probably gone for Republicans. Its non-Hispanic white population is barely 30%, and this isn't just an urban-core thing. Its suburbs are much more ethnically diverse than those in the other DFW counties.

[The Mikado]

The skill of the gerrymandering to keep only one Democratic congressional district in the DFW area is something that truly impresses.

[JerryArkansas]

The skill of the gerrymandering to keep only one Democratic congressional district in the DFW area is something that truly impresses.

Well, there is two, but still, pretty impressive.
 

[politicallefty]

Dallas County does appear to be quite firmly Democratic now. The county to really watch in Texas is Tarrant, I think. For most elections, it has appeared to be a bellwether for the state. If and when Texas starts trending Democratic, I think Tarrant County will be the metaphorical canary in the coal mine. It would probably lean more and more Democratic relative to the state as a whole. I think Tarrant County will fall some time before the entire state does.

Any Democratic victory in Texas will require big margins in the cities (alongside reliably Democratic South Texas). The current paradigm will require Democrats to get upwards of 65% in Dallas County to win statewide, double-digit wins in Harris and Bexar, and an outright win in Tarrant (not to mention particularly cutting down Republican margins in suburban DFW and Austin).

[RedSLC]

The skill of the gerrymandering to keep only one Democratic congressional district in the DFW area is something that truly impresses.

Well, there is two, but still, pretty impressive.
 

The second one goes into Tarrant County, though.

[JerryArkansas]

The skill of the gerrymandering to keep only one Democratic congressional district in the DFW area is something that truly impresses.

Well, there is two, but still, pretty impressive.
 

The second one goes into Tarrant County, though.

It does, but for the whole area, only two is pretty good for Republican's.

[RedSLC]

The skill of the gerrymandering to keep only one Democratic congressional district in the DFW area is something that truly impresses.

Well, there is two, but still, pretty impressive.
 

The second one goes into Tarrant County, though.

It does, but for the whole area, only two is pretty good for Republican's.

I agree. A "fair" map would have two den districts in Dallas County, and one in Tarrant County. I believe it's hypothetically possible to get three dem districts in Dallas and two in Tarrant , maybe a sixth if you incorporate some area outside those two (like the area around North Texas University in Denton County).

[Indy Texas]

Dallas County is lost for the GOP, but that's not a big deal in and of itself. It doesn't do much good to shut a party out of a county when that county's population growth has been flat for the past decade or so and the counties surrounding it are exploding in population and are very favorable towards the GOP.

The Democrats are going to have to figure out a way to get more than 35% of the vote in the collar counties (Collin, Denton, Ellis, Rockwall, Johnson). Same story in other "sprawl counties" near Houston (Montgomery, Fort Bend, Brazoria) and Austin (Williamson).

It's started to perform all other big city counties do (Cook, Los Angeles, ect.) Unless there's some major political realignment where minorities and urban voters begin to support the Republican party, the GOP doesn't really have a chance there.

There will always be a residual GOP presence in Dallas that Chicago and Los Angeles do not have. There's a lot of money in Dallas and that money is all conservative. They don't have "Lakeshore Liberals" like the Windy City and there's not a large entertainment or legal services industry like Los Angeles to provide a base of rich liberals. When Rick Santorum started that Christian movie studio in Dallas, he said part of the reason for the location was that there were a lot of wealthy evangelicals who could provide the financial backing for his movies.

[RedSLC]

The Democrats are going to have to figure out a way to get more than 35% of the vote in the collar counties (Collin, Denton, Ellis, Rockwall, Johnson). Same story in other "sprawl counties" near Houston (Montgomery, Fort Bend, Brazoria) and Austin (Williamson).

Fort Bend was reasonably close the past couple of elections, and could conceivably flip in the near future. Williamson and Denton should be prime targets for the next 20 years, too. Hays County, too (Since it contains the college city of San Marcos).

[Skill and Chance]

Dallas County is lost for the GOP, but that's not a big deal in and of itself. It doesn't do much good to shut a party out of a county when that county's population growth has been flat for the past decade or so and the counties surrounding it are exploding in population and are very favorable towards the GOP.

The Democrats are going to have to figure out a way to get more than 35% of the vote in the collar counties (Collin, Denton, Ellis, Rockwall, Johnson). Same story in other "sprawl counties" near Houston (Montgomery, Fort Bend, Brazoria) and Austin (Williamson).

It's started to perform all other big city counties do (Cook, Los Angeles, ect.) Unless there's some major political realignment where minorities and urban voters begin to support the Republican party, the GOP doesn't really have a chance there.

There will always be a residual GOP presence in Dallas that Chicago and Los Angeles do not have. There's a lot of money in Dallas and that money is all conservative. They don't have "Lakeshore Liberals" like the Windy City and there's not a large entertainment or legal services industry like Los Angeles to provide a base of rich liberals. When Rick Santorum started that Christian movie studio in Dallas, he said part of the reason for the location was that there were a lot of wealthy evangelicals who could provide the financial backing for his movies.

Unholy alliance on a carbon tax to stimulate domestic natural gas drilling if the oil business keeps cratering?  Maybe that's the next realignment...

[jimrtex]

The skill of the gerrymandering to keep only one Democratic congressional district in the DFW area is something that truly impresses.

Well, there is two, but still, pretty impressive.
 

The second one goes into Tarrant County, though.

It does, but for the whole area, only two is pretty good for Republican's.

I agree. A "fair" map would have two den districts in Dallas County, and one in Tarrant County. I believe it's hypothetically possible to get three dem districts in Dallas and two in Tarrant , maybe a sixth if you incorporate some area outside those two (like the area around North Texas University in Denton County).

Texas senate districts are sightly larger than US House districts.  The Democrats lost the senate seat that they had held in Tarrant County, and have one senate district in Dallas.

[Indy Texas]

The Democrats are going to have to figure out a way to get more than 35% of the vote in the collar counties (Collin, Denton, Ellis, Rockwall, Johnson). Same story in other "sprawl counties" near Houston (Montgomery, Fort Bend, Brazoria) and Austin (Williamson).

Fort Bend was reasonably close the past couple of elections, and could conceivably flip in the near future. Williamson and Denton should be prime targets for the next 20 years, too. Hays County, too (Since it contains the college city of San Marcos).

Fort Bend owed its closeness to Missouri City, a heavily black suburb. Sugar Land is the larger city in Fort Bend and it is much whiter, faster growing and more conservative. It also has a large and growing Asian population which the Democrats would do well to go after.

Williamson County is almost as right-wing as Travis County is left-wing. The City of Denton did pass a fracking ban, but that was more a classic case of NIMBY-ism than any sign of liberalism. San Marcos has Texas State University - all those kids are from in-state anyway so if they're registered to vote it's in their home county. And by and large it's a mediocre party school for apathetic stoner types and right-wing fratboys who couldn't get into UT or TAMU.

[Cubby]

How do the medium-sized cities like Mesquite, Garland, Irving and Grand Prairie vote in Presidential, Senate and Gubernatorial races? Are they like 55% GOP or 75% GOP? Do all the Democratic gains in recent years in the county come from the city of Dallas or is it also south side suburbs like Duncanville which are only plurality white?