Zero In: December Election Tracker (user search)
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  Zero In: December Election Tracker (search mode)
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Author Topic: Zero In: December Election Tracker  (Read 5817 times)
Adam Griffin
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,088
Greece


Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26

« on: December 15, 2014, 01:12:45 AM »

That isn't the red of socialist flags you are seeing but the blood of the inactive Federalists I just slaughtered and had vampirized. Evil

There were certainly a lot of interesting currents flowing in this election, and I think it's hard to blame any one element (but yes, Federalists had a metric f[inks]-ton of no-shows; 40% of all no-shows in the election from a party that comprises 25% of the country).

There was also the dynamic of SWE not doing a good job of carrying the non-absolutists in Labor (probably to do with campaigning or the lack thereof). Some other candidates, however, didn't campaign, either. Bacon King and Polnut alike would have had a field day sniping Laborites in this scenario (similar to what occurred in August), but Lief was there to pull a lot of the voters they probably thought they locked down from other parties and from the independent bloc into his column.

I didn't bother even trying to count voters until a few hours before the election. I tried to use this last report (from 4:30 PM ET) as a baseline, and going into the end of the election, I showed something like this (can't remember if I updated it fully):

SWE - 20
Lief - 19
JCL - 19
Bacon King - 19
Cris - 18
Polnut - 17

Polnut was the one that appeared to be the lowest, but no one else seemed to show this scenario when we compared numbers after the booth closed. On one hand, I just assumed (all along) that my numbers were going to be off and were likely wrong. On the other hand, I thought it all made sense; I figured Yankee was voting for Cris because he was the most in danger, and I figured Cinci voted for BK because TPP thought Polnut was already too far gone.

Well crap, I thought Polnut was safe..

I thought the same thing back in March, and we all know what happened...

Fun times!
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Adam Griffin
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,088
Greece


Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26

« Reply #1 on: December 15, 2014, 04:57:09 AM »
« Edited: December 15, 2014, 04:59:42 AM by Lowly Griff »

Three fun sets of figures (aka "How the Federalists Blew It and TPP Managed to Squeeze Out a Second Seat"):



It should be noted that depending on your interpretation of "turnout", TPP may have had 90% turnout (if you subtract Cinci's vote due to it being invalid because of activity) or 95% turnout (as calculated above).

Other fun fact: the Liberal Party still does in fact exist (3 members) and it had 100% turnout in this election (!!!).
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Adam Griffin
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,088
Greece


Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26

« Reply #2 on: December 17, 2014, 04:04:02 AM »

Your numbers need work Griffin.

I have 62% Federalist Turnout.

I missed Maistre's vote when marking voters, somehow missed 3 when plugging in the formula and had you guys down as 41 instead of 42 (which would actually make the numbers look better). Still, I'm not sure how you're getting 62% from your own numbers:

24/42 = 57.14%

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