Would Rand have a chance at MN?

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

MN likes independent candidates, at least compared to other midwestern states. Could Rand's libertarian brand of conservatism play well enough in MN for him to squeak out a win?

[henster]

No he has 0% chance of winning Minnesota.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Most likely no, but not going to rule it out.

[henster]

I think consistently opposing the farm bill and farm subsidies hurts him there more than anything else and I don't think MN has a libertarian streak what so ever. 

[Vega]

Seems like in the past couple of Presidential election cycles, Republicans have tried towards the end to put MN in play, and it always fails.

I can't imagine any Republican being competitive let alone winning Minnesota.

[Free Bird]

Most likely no, but not going to rule it out.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

If Jesse Ventura stumps fo him, maybe.

[Vega]

If Jesse Ventura stumps fo him, maybe.

I think Jesse Ventura running for President himself and splitting the vote between himself and the Democrat, allowing Rand to win is more likely than him campaigning for Rand.

[Nichlemn]

No, Minnesota is rock-solid Democratic state. Even if Hillary Clinton is caught eating babies on camera and Republicans win massive landslides in the other 49 states, MN will still vote Democratic. Because history.

[Suburbia]

I would say yes. Depends on the political environment.

[SPC]

It should be noted that this was one of his father's best states while Clinton lost it huge in 2008.

[Ebowed]

It should be noted that this was one of his father's best states while Clinton lost it huge in 2008.

That's mostly not useful to extrapolate from, as they were caucuses, and conversely, you can find plenty of solid Democratic states that Obama lost in the primaries.

[Nichlemn]

No, Minnesota is rock-solid Democratic state. Even if Hillary Clinton is caught eating babies on camera and Republicans win massive landslides in the other 49 states, MN will still vote Democratic. Because history.

Real answer: of course he has a "chance", and it's not negligible. MN is only D+2. (The supposed Republican "ceiling" is, I expect, mostly just an artifact of countervailing swings and not indicative of anything real, much like numerous other electoral precedents before).

Is it likely to be the the tipping point state? No. But a strong Republican nationwide victory is not implausible, and in the event of such a victory, any Republican would have a good chance of winning MN.

[Wolverines34]

No. Reagan didint even win Minnesota...

[TDAS04]

I doubt it.

[Brewer]

Minnesota is not a libertarian state, especially not libertarian-conservative. Rand has no chance.

[ElectionsGuy]

No

[Pandaguineapig]

In theory any candidate can win any state given a perfect storm, that said the Dems would have to nominate sanders for paul to win here

[Mister Mets]

Any Republican nominee has a shot at winning a state that Romney lost by under eight points, and that has consistently been between 2-6 points more liberal than the rest of the country in presidential elections.

It's the state of Jesse Ventura and Justin Amash although the independent streak may not be that important. Ventura's election was in 1998, and he got 37% (although he and Coleman did have a combined 71%.)

[Brewer]

Any Republican nominee has a shot at winning a state that Romney lost by under eight points, and that has consistently been between 2-6 points more liberal than the rest of the country in presidential elections.

It's the state of Jesse Ventura and Justin Amash although the independent streak may not be that important. Ventura's election was in 1998, and he got 37% (although he and Coleman did have a combined 71%.)

Justin Amash? Of Michigan?

Also, electing Jesse Ventura in 1998 does not make it a libertarian state. Minnesota is a solidly liberal state and, as far as I can see, will continue to be in the near future. While its election results have not been the most convincing, it's the lack of elasticity it has shown in presidential elections that give me reason to believe Rand Paul and his politics would do poorly unless stacked against an utterly terrible Democratic candidate.

[Maxwell]

Republicans have a high floor and a low ceiling in Minnesota.

[pbrower2a]

Rand Paul is no libertarian. He is a corporatist right-winger who wins Minnesota only in a climate of fear and intimidation.

[IceSpear]

Republicans have a high floor and a low ceiling in Minnesota.

Yeah, it's like Georgia for the Democrats. In a mega wave it could potentially flip, but very unlikely.

[solarstorm]

It should be noted that this was one of his father's best states while Clinton lost it huge in 2008.

Obama lost states like Ohio, Pennsylvania, New York, Florida, Michigan, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, California huge in the 2008 primary season, and he still won each.

[solarstorm]

No. Reagan didint even win Minnesota...

TBH, Mondale had a huge home state advantage - twice. Hadn't he been on the ticket in either year, Minnesota would have gone red (Altas blue).