Will Virginia be more Democratic than Pennsylvania?

[retromike22]

Bored grad student on winter break so I made this:


Do you think Virginia will be more Democratic than Pennsylvania in 2016?

It'll be the first time that occurs since 1948.

[Maxwell]

Hillary is a better fit for Pennsylvania, while Virginia seems to be a state that swung because of Obama, so I feel like the gap will grow again.

[Miles]

From a purely numerical standpoint, trends make we want to say yes. Still, Obama about hit rock bottom in southwestern PA, and I think Hillary will improve on that. Leaning No.

[Lief 🗽]

Hillary is a better fit for Pennsylvania, while Virginia seems to be a state that swung because of Obama, so I feel like the gap will grow again.

While I probably agree with this, we should not forget that T-Mac of all people managed to turn out the Obama coalition and win in 2013.

[moderatevoter]

T-Mac does deserve credit for that, but Ken Cuccinelli and EW Jackson made his job infinitely easier. That wouldn't happen against someone like Bill Bolling.

[retromike22]

Hillary is a better fit for Pennsylvania, while Virginia seems to be a state that swung because of Obama, so I feel like the gap will grow again.

While I probably agree with this, we should not forget that T-Mac of all people managed to turn out the Obama coalition and win in 2013.

Another thing I was thinking of is Tooney riding the 2010 GOP wave but Warner surviving the 2014 GOP wave. And in 2012, Casey got 53.69%, and Kaine got 52.87%, less than a 1% difference. But in 2006, Casey got 58.64%, and Webb got 49.59%. I realize that's more a measure of those specific candidates, but a PA Dem incumbant running for reelection lost Dem % from 2006, and in an open VA seat the Dem candidate gained Dem %.

[IceSpear]

Hillary is a better fit for Pennsylvania, while Virginia seems to be a state that swung because of Obama, so I feel like the gap will grow again.

This, but I don't think it'll grow a lot. As someone else mentioned, an underrated reason for PA's Republican trend in 2012 was because Romney dumped tons of money there at the last second, and Obama didn't respond dollar for dollar since he felt his lead there was big enough to withstand it. It will be interesting to see if it trends R without this factor. But then again, maybe the next Republican will do the exact same thing McCain/Romney did...

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Only if Webb, not Hilary is the nominee.  Certainly, Clinton was  our standard bearer in 2008 and should be in 2016. But, what Obama has taught us, that especially in the Democratic primary, party ranks doesn't matter as much as it did in 2000 and 2004.

The Cromnibus spending bill, which was a poison pill to Mainstreet, and a gift to Wallstreet has resurrected the populist agenda within the Democratic party and establishment can go into a downward spiral.  Hillary shouldn't take it for granted now, the coronation, she was hoping for, look out for Webb, which I can get behind or any other anti establishment candidate.

[Vega]

No. Webb isn't that popular in Virginia, by the way.

[Free Bird]

For God sakes Virginia isn't a solid blue state

[Vega]

For God sakes Virginia isn't a solid blue state

Obama just won it two times, it has two Democratic U.S. Senators and a string of Democratic Governors.

It's more lean D.

[Türkisblau]

An extremely popular former governor just barely slid by for reelection. Terry McAuliffe won here just because he faced Cuccinelli; it was basically an unpopularity contest.

I live here atm and have worked on campaigns here. The Virginia Dems are awful and the Republican party is still quite strong. I would not count VA more Democratic than PA at all.

[Mehmentum]

For God sakes Virginia isn't a solid blue state

Neither is Pennsylvania.

[The_Doctor]

Both can be picked up by Republicans, if they're smart. Pennsylvania can be flipped in 2016 and ditto Virginia, with the right Republican investment in infrastructure and the right Republican outreach.

Pennsylvania, particularly, as an aging white state, can be compelled to vote GOP on the national level. Bush ran quite competitively in Pennsylvania, in fact. Romney, likewise, was very competitive, despite dumping money in it at the last minute.

Point blank asked, I would say Pennsylvania is more Democratic right now, but I can see Pennsylvania shifting redder at the margins - red enough to flip.

Hillary will - at best - run as well as Obama did in Pennsylvania and Virginia. I think it's a strong myth to think that she'll cobble together a different electoral coalition than Obama. The yuppies and wine track won 8 years ago in the Democratic primaries. They aren't relinquishing their grip on the Democratic Party's direction and electoral coalition.

[Devils30]

Both can be picked up by Republicans, if they're smart. Pennsylvania can be flipped in 2016 and ditto Virginia, with the right Republican investment in infrastructure and the right Republican outreach.

Pennsylvania, particularly, as an aging white state, can be compelled to vote GOP on the national level. Bush ran quite competitively in Pennsylvania, in fact. Romney, likewise, was very competitive, despite dumping money in it at the last minute.

Point blank asked, I would say Pennsylvania is more Democratic right now, but I can see Pennsylvania shifting redder at the margins - red enough to flip.

Hillary will - at best - run as well as Obama did in Pennsylvania and Virginia. I think it's a strong myth to think that she'll cobble together a different electoral coalition than Obama. The yuppies and wine track won 8 years ago in the Democratic primaries. They aren't relinquishing their grip on the Democratic Party's direction and electoral coalition.

Pennsylvania looks like an easier flip for the GOP than it really is. They can cater to the blue-collar crowd but the state is pretty much unwinnable without inroads in metro Philadelphia.

[Free Bird]

For God sakes Virginia isn't a solid blue state

Obama just won it two times, it has two Democratic U.S. Senators and a string of Democratic Governors.

It's more lean D.

Obama won it in 08 because McCain got cocky, and the less we talk about Unskewed Polls the better. The two Senators were also popular former governors (so don't play double jeopardy here), one of which only survived by the skin of his teeth when everyone considered him invincible. And Terry would have lost against anyone but KEN "BIGOT" COOCH.

[Gass3268]

For God sakes Virginia isn't a solid blue state

Obama just won it two times, it has two Democratic U.S. Senators and a string of Democratic Governors.

It's more lean D.

Obama won it in 08 because McCain got cocky, and the less we talk about Unskewed Polls the better. The two Senators were also popular former governors (so don't play double jeopardy here), one of which only survived by the skin of his teeth when everyone considered him invincible. And Terry would have lost against anyone but KEN "BIGOT" COOCH.
[/quote

Everything is going against the Republicans in Virginia. Voting trends, population trends, amount of votes trends. The only thing they have going for them in the gerrymandered maps.

[IceSpear]

Both can be picked up by Republicans, if they're smart. Pennsylvania can be flipped in 2016 and ditto Virginia, with the right Republican investment in infrastructure and the right Republican outreach.

Pennsylvania, particularly, as an aging white state, can be compelled to vote GOP on the national level. Bush ran quite competitively in Pennsylvania, in fact. Romney, likewise, was very competitive, despite dumping money in it at the last minute.

Point blank asked, I would say Pennsylvania is more Democratic right now, but I can see Pennsylvania shifting redder at the margins - red enough to flip.

Hillary will - at best - run as well as Obama did in Pennsylvania and Virginia. I think it's a strong myth to think that she'll cobble together a different electoral coalition than Obama. The yuppies and wine track won 8 years ago in the Democratic primaries. They aren't relinquishing their grip on the Democratic Party's direction and electoral coalition.

If you think Hillary's ceiling in PA is a 5 point win, you're sadly mistaken. Obama's 2012 victory is not the Democratic ceiling, either in PA or in general. True, Hillary's coalition isn't going to be majorly different due to the intense polarization in the last 6 years, but it will nonetheless be slightly different. And PA is definitely a state where that will work in Dems favor.

[Ljube]

The answer is yes. Virginia is unattainable for the Republicans, while Pennsylvania is presumably unattainable for the Republicans.

[Suburbia]

No. Shenandoah area is too tough. Some areas of Virginia are too conservative, it's Robertson-Cruz country around those areas.

[Likely Voter]

This is a key question for the GOP. In 2012 their core strategy was to win FL/OH/VA + 1 state. They spent more in VA per EV than any other state. The PA spend was much less and last minute. If there is a genuine trend, then they should switch their VA spend to PA. Then again maybe Obama (with his comments about people from PA clutching to their bibles and guns) was a bad fit and it will move back to be more akin to MN for Hillary in 2016 and once again be fools gold for the GOP? If they are smart they are already doing the early planning and testing required to turn PA into a real tipping point state, they can't half-ass it if they want to win, and if VA is really trending away they have no other choice really.

[Skill and Chance]

With Generic D vs. Generic R I would say likely yes, but Hillary's brand is optimal for the wavering ancestral Dems in Western PA but not optimal for the postgrad Dems in NOVA.  So it's a really close call, but I'm leaning no.

[Free Bird]

The answer is yes. Virginia is unattainable for the Republicans, while Pennsylvania is presumably unattainable for the Republicans.

Lol

[henster]

Obama did not invest heavily in PA, his GOTV was not as extensive as it was in VA, OH, FL, CO and he didn't really run a lot of ads there while Romney did at the last minute. I think it was closer than it would've been had Obama contested the state. If the convention is in Philly that should help with GOTV in the area.

[Non Swing Voter]

Why do people keep couching this as if the Virginia trend is questionable?  Virginia is trending Democrat... PERIOD.  Everything points to this: population geography, racial demographics, education levels, and most importantly actual election returns.  Virginia is trending Dem on the Presidential level.