HYPO: Franken/Coleman rematch

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I think Coleman by a very small margin, but could really see it going either way.

[Lief 🗽]

Obviously it would be closer, but I think Franken wins pretty comfortably. 5-6%.

[ElectionsGuy]

Franken

[moderatevoter]

Franken.

It just seems very difficult for a Republican in Minnesota to cross fifty-percent. Coleman would need a third party to take away a sizable amount of the Franken vote, and that just didn't happen this year. I concur with Lief.

[Maxwell]

I think polls begin tight, but Franken wins by 5-8 points.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Uh, thanks to his sore loser stint in 2009 Coleman has like a net 20 unfavorability rating now. He probably would've done about the same. Franken is actually liked and respected now, Coleman is a laughing stock.

[IceSpear]

I think it should be remembered that in 2008 Coleman only did a tiny bit worse than McCain, whereas Franken massively underperformed Obama. Had Barkley not been on the ballot, Franken likely would've won fairly comfortably.

Franken by ~5 points in 2014.

[Maxwell]

I think it should be remembered that in 2008 Coleman only did a tiny bit worse than McCain, whereas Franken massively underperformed Obama. Had Barkley not been on the ballot, Franken likely would've won fairly comfortably.

Franken by ~5 points in 2014.

I mean maybe, but Barkley took a bunch of just dissatisfied votes. Coleman probably would've lost by 2-4 points in 2008.

[Boston Bread]

Franken was considered to be a much weaker candidate in 2008 than in 2014 because of he started out in comedy. Plus MN republicans have sucked at statewide elections since 2006 (funny enough).

[Maxwell]

Franken was considered to be a much weaker candidate in 2008 than in 2014 because of he started out in comedy. Plus MN republicans have sucked at statewide elections since 2006 (funny enough).

The problem has been that the Bachmann wing of the Minnesota Republican Party has swallowed the party whole.

[Adam Griffin]

Going into 2008, Al Franken was known as nothing more than an SNL cast member, with a strong third-party independent populist (who was in a lot of ways more Democratic than Republican) likely peeling off more votes from him than from Coleman. I'm sure a lot of people were hesitant about voting for a comedian but didn't want to vote for Coleman.

Going into 2014, Al Franken was a respected incumbent Senator who more than probably any other Senator, spent time focusing on his constituents and skipped the media circus that so many Senators love to be involved with these days. There was also no credible third-party candidate and no "Ventura factor".

If you want to start with 2008 baseline, I'd say give 9 of Barkley's percentage points to Franken and 6 to Coleman; 51-48 Franken. Then, factoring out the 2008 Democratic surge (but also taking into account that it's Minnesota; Dayton managed to clear 50% in one of the worst national climates for Dems in decades and Franken is now an incumbent, too) and I think Franken wins with 51-52%.

[SWE]

Franken wins easily, unless it's a Democratic wave.

[Vega]

Franken still wins.

[Smash255]

Franken, 5-8 points

[ilikeverin]

I think it should be remembered that in 2008 Coleman only did a tiny bit worse than McCain, whereas Franken massively underperformed Obama. Had Barkley not been on the ballot, Franken likely would've won fairly comfortably.

Franken by ~5 points in 2014.

I mean maybe, but Barkley took a bunch of just dissatisfied votes. Coleman probably would've lost by 2-4 points in 2008.

Yeah.  The Independence Party in Minnesota just serves the same function as "None of the Above" does in Nevada; it's an option for folks who are disgruntled with the two main candidates but still really want to go out and vote (e.g., me in 2008).  In 2008, Barkley captured a significant portion of the vote because people were dissatisfied with Coleman but were terrified that Franken would turn out  to be the next Ventura.  By 2014, it was clear that nothing could be further from the truth.  Franken would've had a smooth route to re-election.  Especially because, as always astute Minnesota political observer (not ironic, he's good!) BRTD notes:

Uh, thanks to his sore loser stint in 2009 Coleman has like a net 20 unfavorability rating now. He probably would've done about the same. Franken is actually liked and respected now, Coleman is a laughing stock.

[IceSpear]

I think it should be remembered that in 2008 Coleman only did a tiny bit worse than McCain, whereas Franken massively underperformed Obama. Had Barkley not been on the ballot, Franken likely would've won fairly comfortably.

Franken by ~5 points in 2014.

I mean maybe, but Barkley took a bunch of just dissatisfied votes. Coleman probably would've lost by 2-4 points in 2008.

Yeah.  The Independence Party in Minnesota just serves the same function as "None of the Above" does in Nevada; it's an option for folks who are disgruntled with the two main candidates but still really want to go out and vote (e.g., me in 2008).  In 2008, Barkley captured a significant portion of the vote because people were dissatisfied with Coleman but were terrified that Franken would turn out  to be the next Ventura.  By 2014, it was clear that nothing could be further from the truth.  Franken would've had a smooth route to re-election.  Especially because, as always astute Minnesota political observer (not ironic, he's good!) BRTD notes:

Uh, thanks to his sore loser stint in 2009 Coleman has like a net 20 unfavorability rating now. He probably would've done about the same. Franken is actually liked and respected now, Coleman is a laughing stock.

I agree that Barkley served as a protest vote as well. But even so, him not being in the race would've benefited Franken marginally, at least enough so that it wouldn't have taken 6 months for him to be sworn in. Franken by 2-4 sounds about right.

[TDAS04]

Franken wins.

[Suburbia]

Slightly Coleman but a tossup.

[dmmidmi]

Norm Coleman's electoral resume includes losing to a professional wrestler, barely beating a dead guy, and losing to a comedian.

Franken, by a lot.

[Stranger in a strange land]

Closer, but Franken would still have won, even in 2014. The MN-GOP has a very hard time winning a statewide election without help from the MIP.

[GLPman]

Probably Franken. Coleman needs to sit it out unless the Minnesota GOP absolutely cannot find anybody else.

[Brewer]

Norm Coleman's electoral resume includes losing to a professional wrestler, barely beating a dead guy, and losing to a comedian.

Franken, by a lot.

LOL, excellent way to sum up the admirable political career of Norman B. Coleman.

[sg0508]

Norm Coleman wasn't bad and was respectable, but he is a bit too conservative for MN.  That being said, he seemed pretty "clean" compared to many others that were/are in Congress.