Which state seems to be gone for Republicans?

[Oregreen]

New Hampshire: voted for a Democratic senator even in a Republican wave in 2014, voted against Bush in 2004, is trending Democratic, a bad fit for the Republicans because of their platform

Colorado: high and growing Hispanic population, is trending Democratic (especially its suburbs!), only narrowly voted for a Republican senator who arguably ran the best campaign in the country and who faced one of the worst Democratic campaigns, moderate/to a certain degree liberal state

Virginia: Northern Virginia population growth, trending Democratic (especially HOW FAST it has been trending D), even voted for a Democratic Senator in a Republican wave in 2014 with low Democratic turnout, 2 Democratic Senators, a Democratic Governor, the Virginia Democratic Party controls all statewide executive offices

Wisconsin: last voted for a Republican in 1984, Republicans try but fail every time to win Wisconsin

Florida: Demographics. Obama won it even though he lost white voters by 21 points. It seems unlikely that Democratic presidential nominees in the future will do even worse among white voters than he did.

My personal guess is either New Hampshire or Virginia (voted for New Hampshire, though). Virginia just seems to be too important for them in order to concede it. Florida and Colorado CAN be won by the right candidate (one who appeals to Hispanic voters and a moderate). Wisconsin is a wild card, although it is the only state mentioned above that is trending Republican.

[Goldwater]

New Hampshire seems the hardest to win. Not that it's impossible, but if they are winning New Hampshire they've already won the election.

[Clarence Boddicker]

Virginia is quickly becoming the new Maryland.

[Mr. Smith]

All but Wisconsin and Florida which is like the GOP's version of Texas, Georgia, or Arizona...mythically supposed to switch over one day so there's always effort put in...but it doesn't happen.

Also Scott Walker.

Florida's Democratic Party is enough of a joke that the GOP still has a chance.

[Gass3268]

Virginia is quickly becoming the new Maryland.

This is so true.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Wisconsin and New Hampshire. They are the states that are the least important in terms of the path to a GOP victory out of the five you mentioned.

Also, the GOP is not giving up on Florida, ever, as the path to the white house without it (for the GOP) is so ridiculously hard it's not even funny.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Virginia is quickly becoming the new Maryland.

I have to agree with you there. Soon Virginia will be called as polls close.

LOLOLOL

[Grumpier Than Thou]

New Hampshire + Wisconsin.

[Rockefeller GOP]

None.  At least not yet.

[Angel of Death]

Florida's Democratic Party is enough of a joke that the GOP still has a chance.

You knew somebody would do this.

[Nichlemn]

None, cherry picked/sugercoated anecdotes aside. (I'm loving how Warner's tiny win has been spun into Good News For Democrats!)

[Vega]

New Hampshire.

[IceSpear]

NH is unpredictable, so I'm hesitant to pick it. If a non Wisconsinite is the nominee, they probably give up on Wisconsin first.

[Ljube]

If I can select only one, then New Hampshire.

[Indy Texas]

If I can select only one, then New Hampshire.

New Hampshire is Upper New England's equivalent of Arkansas - a few years behind its neighbors in giving up its previous voting habits.

[Xing]

Florida and Virginia are not at all gone for Republicans. Sure, the demographic trends in those states aren't favorable for the GOP, but they're definitely still competitive. Same goes for Colorado, though it's more Democratic leaning than those two.

New Hampshire is unpredictable, and a very elastic state, so I could see Republicans doing well there with the right candidate.

So, my vote goes to Wisconsin. Republicans have only been successful there in very Republican-friendly midterm years, and Romney couldn't even come close to winning it with Wisconsinite as his running mate. I think Republicans will still try to win it, but they'd probably be better off focusing on other states.

[solarstorm]

New Hampshire + Wisconsin.

As Wisconsin has more electoral votes, I'll go with New Hampshire.

[Nichlemn]

If I can select only one, then New Hampshire.

New Hampshire is Upper New England's equivalent of Arkansas - a few years behind its neighbors in giving up its previous voting habits.

Barely analogous. NH has swung back and forth in the last decade, not really moving anywhere on net. In the last three Presidential elections, its PVI has been about the same (D+1ish). Arkansas has gone from near-total Democratic dominance to near-total Republican dominance.