Pence might be the real 2016 wildcard.
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  Pence might be the real 2016 wildcard.
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Author Topic: Pence might be the real 2016 wildcard.  (Read 527 times)
Keystone Phil
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« on: December 14, 2014, 08:21:20 PM »

He satisfies all major factions of the party. He's a Governor. He may be the one that ends up uniting the party. I know he's been mentioned, especially around here, before but I expect there will be a lot more chatter about him over the new months. 

http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/mike-pence-lays-out-a-vision-for-presidential-campaign-but-will-he-be-a-candidate/2014/12/11/0988c650-7cbd-11e4-84d4-7c896b90abdc_story.html
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Indy Texas
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« Reply #1 on: December 14, 2014, 08:27:39 PM »

I agree. Some people think Scott Walker fills this role, but getting threatened with a recall isn't a ringing endorsement, even if you end up winning the recall. The fact that he hasn't been able to move the needle at all - he performed more or less the same in his 2010, 2012 and 2014 elections - indicates that he's a very polarizing and divisive person and isn't going to perform well with independents and in swing states.
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The_Doctor
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« Reply #2 on: December 14, 2014, 08:28:10 PM »

I'm concerned about his weakness in Indiana. He prevailed by 2.95% in Indiana in 2012, even as Mitt Romney won Indiana 54.04-43.84%. Why the weakness?

That said, he could be a compelling candidate. 55 is a decent age, he's from a conservative state, and has a record of conservatism.
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Indy Texas
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« Reply #3 on: December 14, 2014, 09:16:22 PM »

I'm concerned about his weakness in Indiana. He prevailed by 2.95% in Indiana in 2012, even as Mitt Romney won Indiana 54.04-43.84%. Why the weakness?

That said, he could be a compelling candidate. 55 is a decent age, he's from a conservative state, and has a record of conservatism.

He was running for an open seat against what seemed to be a fairly strong Democratic candidate. And the good Libertarian showing suggests Mourdock's awful Senate candidacy may have poisoned the well for the other non-presidential statewide races.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #4 on: December 14, 2014, 09:29:50 PM »

If Snyder is the "backup Kasich", then Pence is the "backup Walker". If you want a somewhat moderate governor from the Midwest, much better to have Kasich than Snyder. If you want an archconservative governor from the Midwest, much better to have Walker than Pence. I don't see Pence having a niche unless Walker doesn't run, since everything he does, Walker does better. Walker successfully enacted a much more conservative agenda than Pence, won three times in a valuable state in the presidential election (as opposed to Indiana which would only go D in a landslide), and won by a bigger margin than Pence did all three times even though his state is much bluer.

However, if Walker doesn't run, then I could definitely see Pence as a strong contender.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #5 on: December 14, 2014, 09:40:45 PM »

I agree. Some people think Scott Walker fills this role, but getting threatened with a recall isn't a ringing endorsement, even if you end up winning the recall. The fact that he hasn't been able to move the needle at all - he performed more or less the same in his 2010, 2012 and 2014 elections - indicates that he's a very polarizing and divisive person and isn't going to perform well with independents and in swing states.

He won independents three times in a swing state, as opposed to Pence who likely lost them in a red state. And I doubt anyone cares how polarizing he is, as long as he can win. In fact, the other side completely despising him is actually a plus for the Republican primary voters.
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Likely Voter
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #6 on: December 15, 2014, 12:56:31 AM »

I think I was one of the earliest voices saying Pence was going to be a big player in 2016 and I still believe that. I think he will do better than Walker because I think he will be a better campaigner and do better in IA. The GOP race is wide open, in most polls the number one pick is 'undecided.'
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #7 on: December 15, 2014, 01:00:02 AM »

I like Pence a lot too. I wanted him to beat Boehner in 2006 for the minority leader position. Speaker Mike Pence would have been cool.
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