Denmark Parliamentary Election - June 18, 2015

[DavidB.]

Actually Metroxpress has just published their first exit poll: http://www.mx.dk/nyheder/danmark/story/15713210

2 126 respondents asked from 9.10 to 15.30

Narrow Red Bloc win (90-89) if North Atlantic polls go as expected

An exit poll based on 45% turnout (15:30) is not really useful, considering final turnout will be 87%.

Would not that work even more to the advantage of the Reds since the working class will be voting later in the day due to their work schedule?

It might as well work the other way around. People with jobs can't vote during the day, so they only go to the polling booth in the evening.

[Tender Branson]

Actually Metroxpress has just published their first exit poll: http://www.mx.dk/nyheder/danmark/story/15713210

2 126 respondents asked from 9.10 to 15.30

Narrow Red Bloc win (90-89) if North Atlantic polls go as expected

An exit poll based on 45% turnout (15:30) is not really useful, considering final turnout will be 87%.

Would not that work even more to the advantage of the Reds since the working class will be voting later in the day due to their work schedule?

It might as well work the other way around. People with jobs can't vote during the day, so they only go to the polling booth in the evening.

Don't know how it is in Denmark, but here in Austria the "working class" is actually solidly right-wing (strongly FPÖ and ÖVP, and to some extent strong Green with the white-collars). It's the unemployed and retired and students who are the left-wingers in Austria, and who are voting strongly SPÖ (unemployed & retired) and Greens (students).

[DavidB.]

Actually Metroxpress has just published their first exit poll: http://www.mx.dk/nyheder/danmark/story/15713210

2 126 respondents asked from 9.10 to 15.30

Narrow Red Bloc win (90-89) if North Atlantic polls go as expected

An exit poll based on 45% turnout (15:30) is not really useful, considering final turnout will be 87%.

Would not that work even more to the advantage of the Reds since the working class will be voting later in the day due to their work schedule?

It might as well work the other way around. People with jobs can't vote during the day, so they only go to the polling booth in the evening.

Don't know how it is in Denmark, but here in Austria the "working class" is actually solidly right-wing (strongly FPÖ and ÖVP, and to some extent strong Green with the white-collars). It's the unemployed and retired and students who are the left-wingers in Austria, and who are voting strongly SPÖ (unemployed & retired) and Greens (students).

The "working class" is by definition not white-collar. "Working class" =/= people who work.

[Viewfromthenorth]

Actually Metroxpress has just published their first exit poll: http://www.mx.dk/nyheder/danmark/story/15713210

2 126 respondents asked from 9.10 to 15.30

Narrow Red Bloc win (90-89) if North Atlantic polls go as expected

An exit poll based on 45% turnout (15:30) is not really useful, considering final turnout will be 87%.

Would not that work even more to the advantage of the Reds since the working class will be voting later in the day due to their work schedule?

It might as well work the other way around. People with jobs can't vote during the day, so they only go to the polling booth in the evening.

Don't know how it is in Denmark, but here in Austria the "working class" is actually solidly right-wing (strongly FPÖ and ÖVP, and to some extent strong Green with the white-collars). It's the unemployed and retired and students who are the left-wingers in Austria, and who are voting strongly SPÖ (unemployed & retired) and Greens (students).

The "working class" is by definition not white-collar. "Working class" =/= people who work.

Um, there are working class white collar jobs. "Working class" =/= physical work.

[Tender Branson]

Actually Metroxpress has just published their first exit poll: http://www.mx.dk/nyheder/danmark/story/15713210

2 126 respondents asked from 9.10 to 15.30

Narrow Red Bloc win (90-89) if North Atlantic polls go as expected

An exit poll based on 45% turnout (15:30) is not really useful, considering final turnout will be 87%.

Would not that work even more to the advantage of the Reds since the working class will be voting later in the day due to their work schedule?

It might as well work the other way around. People with jobs can't vote during the day, so they only go to the polling booth in the evening.

Don't know how it is in Denmark, but here in Austria the "working class" is actually solidly right-wing (strongly FPÖ and ÖVP, and to some extent strong Green with the white-collars). It's the unemployed and retired and students who are the left-wingers in Austria, and who are voting strongly SPÖ (unemployed & retired) and Greens (students).

The "working class" is by definition not white-collar. "Working class" =/= people who work.

Yes, I know. But in Denmark's economy of 2015 there's hardly any real "working class" (blue-collars) left because about 85% work in the service sector and just 15% in industry ... This classification is so 1900.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Working class as a description can certainly be used for people in poorly paid service sector jobs and the like. Thinking otherwise is to deny the reality of the modern economy. And it certainly applies to relevant retired people and so on. What the hell? Stop being so weird all of you.

Anyway in Denmark the two parties with the most obviously working class voter profile (however defined) are the SDs and the DPP (although both, of course, attract votes from other sources). Other parties (whatever the camp) tend to have a more affluent* profile. I generalise greatly of course.

_{*I'm a country boy, I regard farmers as affluent even when they aren't.}

[eric82oslo]

Anyway in Denmark the two parties with the most obviously working class voter profile (however defined) are the SDs and the DPP (although both, of course, attract votes from other sources). Other parties (whatever the camp) tend to have a more affluent* profile. I generalise greatly of course.

I agree. It's exactly the same in Norway. Just the "NPP" is called Progress Party instead.

[Tender Branson]

Anyway in Denmark the two parties with the most obviously working class voter profile (however defined) are the SDs and the DPP (although both, of course, attract votes from other sources). Other parties (whatever the camp) tend to have a more affluent* profile. I generalise greatly of course.

I agree. It's exactly the same in Norway. Just the "NPP" is called Progress Party instead.

It's even more obvious here in Austria: In the 1970s under Kreisky, 70-80% of blue-collar factory workers voted SPÖ.

In the Styria state election 3 weeks ago, exit polls showed that blue-collar workers voted 61% FPÖ and 18% SPÖ.

Now that's some swing ...

[DavidB.]

Anyway in Denmark the two parties with the most obviously working class voter profile (however defined) are the SDs and the DPP (although both, of course, attract votes from other sources). Other parties (whatever the camp) tend to have a more affluent* profile. I generalise greatly of course.

I agree. It's exactly the same in Norway. Just the "NPP" is called Progress Party instead.

It's even more obvious here in Austria: In the 1970s under Kreisky, 70-80% of blue-collar factory workers voted SPÖ.

In the Styria state election 3 weeks ago, exit polls showed that blue-collar workers voted 61% FPÖ and 18% SPÖ.

Now that's some swing ...

Same in the Netherlands, with PVV and Socialist Party getting >50% of blue-collar votes.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Would you stop arguing about class!

Exit poll says Blue with smallest possible margin.

[Tender Branson]

Exit Poll:

Slight 51%-49% lead for the Opposition and 89 vs. 86 seats.

[Tayya]

Assuming that Greenland and the Faroes vote 3-1 for Team Red,

Team Red will win if TV2's exit poll holds. Team Blue wins according to DR.

[eric82oslo]

Exit Poll:

Slight 51%-49% lead for the Opposition and 89 vs. 86 seats.

This is just one of the 4 announced exit polls. I'm curious about the other three.

[Tayya]

The DPP has to overperform the exit polls by very little to surpass Venstre.

[eric82oslo]

Assuming that Greenland and the Faroes vote 3-1 for Team Red,

Team Red will win if TV2's exit poll holds. Team Blue wins according to DR.

You're right. According to the TV2 exit poll, team blue is just ahead 88-87.
I presume the two remaining exit polls were conducted by newspapers?

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Assuming Helle prevails tonight, how likely is she to ditch Radikale from the government with a result like this?

[DavidB.]

Exit poll DR:
SD 25,7%
Lib 20,2%
DPP 18,5%
LA 8,2%
Red-Green 7,8%
Radikale 5,2%
SF 5%
Alternativet 4,9%
Con 3,3%

Blue 89, Red 86

[Filuwaúrdjan]

So the first time that the Social Democrats have been the largest party since 1998.

[jaichind]

                       Å      C      O      I       Ø     A      B      F      V
DR                   9       6     33   14     14    45    9       9     36
TV2                 9        6    32    15     15    45    9       9     35

[jaichind]

The count seems pretty slow.

[eric82oslo]

With 0.3% of all votes counted, blue block is leading with impressive 64% against 36%, though almost no votes in Copenhagen have been counted yet. DPP sees enormous progress almost everywhere, some places even more than doubling their support. The biggest loser seems to be Radical Left.

Here's a nice map of the actual results: http://www.politiko.dk/valgresultat#/

As you can see, almost entirely blue so far.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I think we wait until a few more votes are counted than those cast in random Jutland agricultural villages...

[eric82oslo]

With 0.9% of votes counted, blue block is still leading 65% to 35%!

The first DR prognosis based on the first 0.6% of votes predicts blue team to win 92-83, shockingly different from their own exit poll. According to it, Liberals and DPP have basically the same number of parliamentarians.

[jaichind]

Well, in TØNDER it seems DPP is +18% with 14.6% of the vote in which I do find relevent.  It is clear in Southern Jutland DPP is doing very well.

[DavidB.]

New prognosis: blue 92 seats, red 83.