Denmark Parliamentary Election - June 18, 2015
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  Denmark Parliamentary Election - June 18, 2015
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Author Topic: Denmark Parliamentary Election - June 18, 2015  (Read 109200 times)
Diouf
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« Reply #525 on: June 27, 2015, 08:06:38 AM »

So, when Venstre is as good as wiped out at the next election, who will benefit? Liberal Annoyance?

Well, if they are wiped out, then I guess one of the best predictors are the 2011 to 2015 movements. They lost 18% of their voters to the DPP, 9% to the Liberal Alliance, 4% to the Social Democrats and 3% to the Conservatives. But it will obviously depend on why they are wiped out.

It should just be remembered that in the 1973 precedent of a small Liberal government being formed after a poor election despite only being the third largest party, they almost doubled in the 1975 election from 22 to 42 seats. Also the PM's party has gained at the last two elections despite the bloc overall going back. Lars Løkke Rasmussen is very unpopular, so if his numbers rebound or he is replaced during the term, then that alone should make the Liberal rise. Some voters will also be disappointed in the DPP for not going into government and return to the "responsible" party. Furthermore, at this election the Liberals campaigned on zero growth in the public sector; a policy that was launched all the way back in 2012 when the economic crisis was way deeper. Therefore they probably ended up too far to the right of their normal voters economically, and especially the DPP gained from promising a bigger public sector. First of all, the Liberals might have a hard time getting zero growth through the parliament, and secondly, they will probably go for a more centrist position at the next election where there will be some growth in the public sector, at least if the economy grow as expected. That should make it likely for them to rise than fall at the next election.
You can make the arguments against as well; they will single-handedly get the blame for everything that goes wrong, it looks like the Liberal Alliance and the Conservatives have forced top tax cuts into the government programme, and especially in the somewhat unlikely case that they become reality, they might cost those centrist voters. If the situation become too messy as the government is not seen as competent, then that could hurt them as well.
Overall, I would think there's a bigger chance for a rise than a fall.
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DavidB.
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« Reply #526 on: June 28, 2015, 05:05:47 AM »

Will there be official "toleration deals" with Liberal Alliance and the Conservatives in order for them to support the government on the most important issues?
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Diouf
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« Reply #527 on: June 28, 2015, 02:03:06 PM »

Will there be official "toleration deals" with Liberal Alliance and the Conservatives in order for them to support the government on the most important issues?

No, but some of the wishes of all the supporting parties have been included in the government programme despite not being in the Liberals' election programme as an sort of expression of goodwill and respect towards them.

The programme includes some growth in the public sector which the DPP wants. The exact amount is not specified, but the Liberal campaigned on zero growth while the Conservatives and the Liberal Alliance wanted cuts.
The Liberal and the DPP campaign focused on lowering taxes for people with low incomes, but the Conservatives and the Liberal Alliance want lower taxes in the top as well, so the programme suggests lowering the top tax rate from 15 to 10%.

Other important parts of the government programme:

The first priority will be to tighten asylum policies. The main policy is to (re-)introduce a lower starting benefit for people who get asylum instead of giving them the full cash benefits. The idea is that the benefits will rise if they for example pass Danish courses. Other policies will be included, and they will probably already be introduced in parliament on Friday.

The referendum on changing the opt-out on justice and home affairs to an opt-in will be held before Christmas. Some still suggest that the DPP could then join the government after the referendum, but I still doubt that will happen.

More controls at the border, but within the Schengen rules. The DPP obviously wanted the latter part of the sentence scrapped.

Lowering development aid to 0.7% of GDP

"Make it pay to work". A cap will be put on the total amount of benefits you can get from the state; i.e. when adding cash benefits, housing benefits, day care subsidies etc. At the same time taxes will be lowered for people in work with low incomes.

Some parts of the previous goverment's train investment fund will be looked at, and perhaps some of the least cost-efficient investments will be channeled into building or expanding the motorway net instead.

More state-owned agencies will be moved from Copenhagen to other parts of Denmark

A subsidy to the workman part of private house improvements, e.g. better windows which can lower the energy use, will be re-introduced.
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Diouf
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« Reply #528 on: June 28, 2015, 02:34:09 PM »

The new Government



The government consist of 17 ministers, whereof 5 are women, so basically the same female percentage as the government it replaced.
Løkke's deputy Kristian Jensen, just to the right of him in the picture, is the new Foreign Minister, while the experienced, but not exactly universally well-liked Claus Hjort Frederiksen is the new Minister of Finance.



The flamboyant Søren Pind, who used the above election poster, is the new Minister of Justice, while the hardliner Inger Støjberg, just in front of Pind and to the right of Jensen, is the new Minister for Foreigners, Integration and Housing.

Two of those I regard among the most talented Liberal politicians have become ministers as well. Sophie Løhde, in the white dress, will be the new Minister of Health and the Elderly, while the theologian and farmer son Esben Lunde Larsen, with the glasses furthest to the right, is the new Minister for Education and Research.

The biggest surprise and only non-MP minister is the new Minister of Employment Jørn Neergaard Larsen, who have until now been the CEO of the The Confederation of Danish Employers.
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Diouf
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« Reply #529 on: June 28, 2015, 02:50:33 PM »
« Edited: June 29, 2015, 03:52:09 AM by Diouf »

Helle or Pia?



The first job for the new parliament is to elects its new Speaker; a quite prestigious post which is normally filled by an experienced statesman. Currently it seems like there will be two candidates; one from each of the biggest parties. The former leader of the DPP, Pia Kjærsgaard, should be the favourite since the Blue Bloc is the biggest. The Liberals have already stated their support for her, but the Liberal Alliance and the Conservatives say that they haven't made up their mind yet. Most likely, they hope to get some kind of policy concession in exchange for their support, but I believe that will be quite unusual and somewhat childish. I expect them to fall in line behind Kjærsgaard at some time.
However, if they do not, then, surprisingly, the former PM Helle Thorning-Schmidt will likely be the new Speaker. She is the Social Democrat candidate, and will most likely get the support from all other members of the Red Bloc as well.

Four deputy speakers are elected as well, so the loser will in all likelyhood become 1. Deputy Speaker.
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DavidB.
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« Reply #530 on: June 28, 2015, 06:52:30 PM »

Thanks for the updates! That went pretty quickly.
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politicus
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« Reply #531 on: June 28, 2015, 09:48:11 PM »

Reintroducing Hjort as MoF seems like a mistake.  He is yesterdays man and damaged goods and the party has younger people capable of doing the job.

Five women is pathetic - even given it is the Libs we are talking about. They should be able to find more - especially if they had included more non-MPs. Wonder if Loekke tried to lure Lykke Friis back.

It is also a clear middle finger to Kristian Jensen. While it may be prestigious to be Minister of Foreign Affairs (Deputy PM is a ludicrous title), he would have had much more real power as MoF - and it would have been a more obvious post for a man with his experience and background.

Kjaersgaard vs. HTS is interesting. It will test the 90 seat majority right from the start. I doubt LA and Cons can seriously vote against Pia K. It would undermine their relationship to DPP before Blue Bloc has even started to govern.

I had expected HTA to simply resign her seat and move to the UK. Maybe do some consultancy work.
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Diouf
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« Reply #532 on: June 29, 2015, 03:50:22 AM »

Reintroducing Hjort as MoF seems like a mistake.  He is yesterdays man and damaged goods and the party has younger people capable of doing the job.

Five women is pathetic - even given it is the Libs we are talking about. They should be able to find more - especially if they had included more non-MPs. Wonder if Loekke tried to lure Lykke Friis back.

It is also a clear middle finger to Kristian Jensen. While it may be prestigious to be Minister of Foreign Affairs (Deputy PM is a ludicrous title), he would have had much more real power as MoF - and it would have been a more obvious post for a man with his experience and background.

Kjaersgaard vs. HTS is interesting. It will test the 90 seat majority right from the start. I doubt LA and Cons can seriously vote against Pia K. It would undermine their relationship to DPP before Blue Bloc has even started to govern.

I had expected HTA to simply resign her seat and move to the UK. Maybe do some consultancy work.

I think the plan was to make Peter Christensen MoF, but since he had a rather terrible personal election and did not get elected, Løkke did not want to do it. They say Hjort has a great relationship with the DPP which is an upside about him, but I had expected Jensen in the post as well. Perhaps a reshuffle here at some point.

If the recently retired government had had a equally-gendered government Løkke would have put more women in for sure, but since it only had 30% women, then there was hardly any obligation for Løkke to reach a higher level, the new government has 29% women. If he had included more, he would probably have had to look outside their MP group. Lykke Friis apparently wants to be the rector at Copenhagen University. She would have been great as say Foreign Minister, but her resignation from parliament halfway through made it difficult to bring her back anyway. Being brought into government from the outside world, run for one election with a great personal, resign from Parliament after only two years in opposition and then return just as the party returned to government without running in the election; that would probably have been seen as too easy a ride, both in the public and in the Liberal group, despite her popularity.
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Barnes
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« Reply #533 on: June 29, 2015, 06:39:48 PM »

Out of curiosity, when is the planned opening date for the new Folketing?
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Diouf
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« Reply #534 on: June 30, 2015, 04:51:38 AM »

Out of curiosity, when is the planned opening date for the new Folketing?

On Thursday. As I understand it there will only be an interim Speaker on Thursday who will have to preside over the election of a Committee to sign off the election result. It is yet unclear whether the parties will use the election of the interim Speaker as a proxy for the real election or just appoint the most experienced MP to the post. The real election of the Speaker will then take place on Friday.

The first political agreement was already made yesterday. The Liberals, the Conservatives, DPP, SPP and the Alternative decided to re-introduced the subsidy to the workman part of private house improvements. It will work in its normal form in the whole of 2015, and then in 2016 and 2017 it will almost exclusively be able to be used for green improvements; a demand from the two red/green parties in the agreement.
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politicus
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« Reply #535 on: July 01, 2015, 04:55:29 PM »

LA has declared their support for Pia K. as Speaker and the Cons support her too. The payment is the chairmanship of the powerful Finance Committee to LA Deputy Chairman Simon Emil Ammitzboell. Pia K. is now almost certain to become Speaker now. Something that would have seemed impossible only 5 years ago. The four Deputy Speakers will be from SD, Libs, LA and Red Greens. A first for both LA and the Red Greens.
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Diouf
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« Reply #536 on: July 03, 2015, 06:06:58 AM »



Today the new members of Parliament signed the Constitution. In the picture, it is the youngest member of the new Parliament, 21-year-old Tilde Bork from DPP, who signs it in front of a picture of the 1915 constitutional convention.

As expected, Pia Kjærsgaard was elected Speaker of the Parliament. The Social Democrats and the blue bloc voted in favour, while the Red-Green Alliance and the Alternative voted against. The Social Liberals and the SPP voted blank.

Helle Thorning-Schmidt (Social Democrats) is 1.deputy speaker
Kristian Pihl Lorentzen (Liberals) is 2.deputy speaker
Stine Brix (Red-Green Alliance) is 3.deputy speaker
Mette Bock (Liberal Alliance) is 4.deputy speaker.

I guess the discussion on Danish politics now returns to the Great Nordic thread.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #537 on: July 03, 2015, 06:39:09 AM »

The Social Democrats voted for Kjaesgaard? God, this party...
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ingemann
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« Reply #538 on: July 03, 2015, 02:27:33 PM »

The Social Democrats voted for Kjaesgaard? God, this party...

SocDem votes for the speaker the majority support, SPP usual do this too. The reason SPP voted against Kjærsgaard was not because her politics, but because they doubted she had the objectivity needed to represent the entire parliament. The Red-Greens voted against because she represented the right, but they saw little difference between her or a potential Venstre candidate for speaker. Alternative voted against her, because they discovered their voters got angry, when they said they would support the majority's candidate in this case Kjærsgaard.

...and now you can throw a hissy fit over the fact that SocDem simply follow tradition, instead of making a meaningless but symbolic stand with no positive practical effect. The Danish parliament are not the hyperpartisan parliament you see in other countries, the weak minority governments make cooperation necessary and it pays not to burn bridges by going after the opponents personal.
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politicus
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« Reply #539 on: July 03, 2015, 06:40:56 PM »
« Edited: July 03, 2015, 09:46:51 PM by Charlotte Hebdo »

The Social Democrats voted for Kjaesgaard? God, this party...

SocDem votes for the speaker the majority support, SPP usual do this too. The reason SPP voted against Kjærsgaard was not because her politics, but because they doubted she had the objectivity needed to represent the entire parliament. The Red-Greens voted against because she represented the right, but they saw little difference between her or a potential Venstre candidate for speaker. Alternative voted against her, because they discovered their voters got angry, when they said they would support the majority's candidate in this case Kjærsgaard.

...and now you can throw a hissy fit over the fact that SocDem simply follow tradition, instead of making a meaningless but symbolic stand with no positive practical effect. The Danish parliament are not the hyperpartisan parliament you see in other countries, the weak minority governments make cooperation necessary and it pays not to burn bridges by going after the opponents personal.

Well, if the entire Red Bloc had voted against Pia K. it would have forced a vote where just one defector could have toppled her. It would have been interesting to see if party discipline had been strong enough. Naser Khader would have to personally secure her election (among other things). Little doubt he would have done it, but it would be a nice test.

Even ignoring that I think SD as a minimum should have abstained like SPP and Social Liberals.
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politicus
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« Reply #540 on: July 03, 2015, 06:42:02 PM »
« Edited: July 03, 2015, 09:44:40 PM by Charlotte Hebdo »


I guess the discussion on Danish politics now returns to the Great Nordic thread.

For general discussion, yes. But this was a fairly interesting election and as thread creator I reserve the right to sum up the election after I get back to DK on the 14th.. Looking at trends, big picture etc.
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Silent Hunter
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« Reply #541 on: July 04, 2015, 12:29:58 PM »



Today the new members of Parliament signed the Constitution. In the picture, it is the youngest member of the new Parliament, 21-year-old Tilde Bork from DPP, who signs it in front of a picture of the 1915 constitutional convention.

I've seen this picture before on my tour of Christansborg; although I wonder who the bloke is who is looking in a different direction to everyone else.
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politicus
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« Reply #542 on: July 15, 2015, 01:43:23 AM »
« Edited: July 15, 2015, 04:28:13 AM by Charlotte Hebdo »

The election set some interesting records - and was fairly close to some others.

While SD managed to gain a bit and the Left Greens did not succeed in making inroads among SD left wingers (which many observers predicted and the polls indicated mid-term), thus preventing a full scale landslide, four out of five establishment parties lost.

1) The Four Old Parties (Liberals, Social Liberals, SD and Conservatives) - founded before or in connection with the introduction of universal adult suffrage in 1915 and the foundation for all Danish governments ever since - got their lowest combined total ever (53,8%).

2) The election provided the biggest swing (17,1%) from establishment parties to anti-establishment parties since the landslide election in 1973.

3) The combined vote share of 22,9% for the two mainstream centre-right parties (Liberals-Conservatives) was the lowest ever.

4) A record 37,2% voted for Eurosceptic parties.

Especially the small establishment parties got clobbered:

1) The Conservatives got their worst result ever in their Centenary year - finishing with a single digit seat count for only the second time.

2) SPP got more than halved and got their second worst result ever (only 1977 was worse due to internal infighting and it being uncool voting for "revisionist" moderate hero SPP among young left wingers in the red seventies).

3) Radikale got halved and received their fourth worst result (on par with 1994). 1977, 1990, 1998 being worse. All their worst results received as a direct or (in the case of 1977) indirect result of the party being in government. Ironically uber-responsible Radikale thrives best in opposition.

But the two big ones didn't do so well either:

The Liberals  got their worst result in 25 years, but were lower 1935-43, 1966-1973 and 1977-1990. However, those elections were in eras where at least one of the other centre-right parties were strong (like the Conservatives dominating in the 80s) and before the party "conquered the cities" in the 90s.

Despite gaining 1,5% SD received their fifth worst result post-1915 (actually post-1906). Helle Thorning-Schmidt have the dubious honour of having led the party to three of those five results (the others are 1973 and 2005).


Other trivia:

The election saw the number of MPs with immigrant background dropping from 6 to 2 (Naser Khader (Cons) and Yildiz Akdogan (SD). On par with the situation in the early 00s.

The election date was held at the latest pre-summer holiday date ever - and the second last date possible - after HTS and her advisers had delayed the "Before or after summer?" decision to the very last moment, waiting for that elusive perfect SD wave to top.
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« Reply #543 on: July 15, 2015, 07:29:26 AM »

Could the Conservatives merge into Venstre? I don't really see what separates them in a non-historical context nowadays.
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politicus
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« Reply #544 on: July 15, 2015, 08:11:10 AM »
« Edited: July 16, 2015, 12:25:19 AM by Charlotte Hebdo »

Could the Conservatives merge into Venstre? I don't really see what separates them in a non-historical context nowadays.

That has been the case since the 60s and Venstre leader Erik Eriksen suggested a merger in 1965, which was rejected by virtually everybody in both parties and ended his career. It has been a dead idea ever since. There is a big difference in party culture (folksy/rural roots vs. elitist/bourgeois).

Current chairman Søren Pape has a rural and Christian cultural background, which he shares with many Liberals, but his political project is to establish the Conservatives as a party to the right of Venstre on both economics and value based issues, such as crime, Europe, education and immigration/integration. Their parliamentary party is autonomous of the party organization and with no moderates among the remaining six MPs there is no one to stop him. He and his supporters will have no interest in folding and merging into a fairly centrist Venstre.

If the Conservatives disappear it is more likely to happen through a process where their moderate base (mostly in Frederiksberg, some Copenhagen suburbs and strongholds like Odense and Elsinore) will slowly lose faith in regaining the party and drop out preferring to establish local lists in their municipalities, while the party ends up below the threshold in a national election and is unable to stage a comeback.

A lot of party members are 60+ and unlikely to join a new party, younger members are much more likely to join LA than Venstre.

Venstre has almost 5 times as many members, so the (former) Conservatives would be a small and irrelevant minority in Venstre outside of Frederiksberg and a few Copenhagen suburbs.
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politicus
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« Reply #545 on: July 15, 2015, 10:30:54 AM »
« Edited: July 16, 2015, 12:05:31 AM by Charlotte Hebdo »

On the topic of mergers and the Conservatives: Many prominent Christian Democrats think it is time to fold after four failed attempts to pass the threshold and merge into another party. They prefer the Conservatives. In addition to the remaining KD base this blend could attract a group of SoCon Jutlandic voters that currently vote DPP in order not to waste their votes. I think it is likely that KD will either merge or lose most of their members and become a "sect" with less than 1 000 members) - and since most "leftists" have already left the party the remaining KD may fit well into Papes populist SoCon version of the Conservatives, but this would further alienate socially liberal and elitist Copenhagen upper middle class Cons (both moderates and Bildung loving self styled Classical Conservatives).

EDIT: So far they are continuing, but the party only has 6 elected representatives left (half of them in Ringkøbing-Skjern municipality), and lost big in traditional strongholds Holstebro and Struer constituencies in Western Jutland. A bad municipal election in 2017 could be the end.
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politicus
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« Reply #546 on: July 15, 2015, 09:12:21 PM »

For the first time in three decades the number of manual workers (incl. office workers) increased in the new Folketing - from 14% to 18,4%:

DPP 18 of 37
Red Greens 6 of 14
SD 6 of 47

Libs, Cons and SPP have 1 each
LA, The Alternative and Radikale (unsurprisingly) have none

http://www.ugebreveta4.dk/hvert-femte-nyvalgte-folketingsmedlem-er-arbejder_20123.aspx
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Silent Hunter
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« Reply #547 on: July 18, 2015, 03:34:20 PM »

For the first time in three decades the number of manual workers (incl. office workers) increased in the new Folketing - from 14% to 18,4%:

DPP 18 of 37
Red Greens 6 of 14
SD 6 of 47

Libs, Cons and SPP have 1 each
LA, The Alternative and Radikale (unsurprisingly) have none

http://www.ugebreveta4.dk/hvert-femte-nyvalgte-folketingsmedlem-er-arbejder_20123.aspx

What would be the equivalent stats for the UK House of Commons?
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Famous Mortimer
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« Reply #548 on: July 18, 2015, 04:15:02 PM »

Dumb question I feel ashamed for not knowing the answer to: Why was Naser Khader kicked out of his party? Too conservative? He fits in fine with the Conservatives now?
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politicus
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« Reply #549 on: July 18, 2015, 05:04:24 PM »

Dumb question I feel ashamed for not knowing the answer to: Why was Naser Khader kicked out of his party? Too conservative? He fits in fine with the Conservatives now?

He was not kicked out, but left Radikale because he and Anders Samuelsen were tired of having no influence. They wanted to create a new centrist party that could offer Venstre and Conservatives an  alternative partner to DPP and counter its influence. It happened in a context where Radikale had isolated themselves by being very principled humanists/softies on immigration & integration. Khader and Samuelsen teamed up with a moderate Conservative (Gitte Seeberg) and formed New Alliance. The party had no coherent ideology (and Seeberg was significantly to the left of Samuelsen) and after an initial success it only just managed to get above the threshold and soon fell apart. Samuelsen persuaded Khader to relaunch the party as the (Soft) Libertarian Liberal Alliance, a project Khader was always  lukewarm about. So Khader soon left and joined the Conservatives a couple of months later. The Conservatives were more moderate back then and he has moved significantly to the right in the last couple of years (having worked in a US think tank has influenced him).
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