Denmark Parliamentary Election - June 18, 2015

[politicus]

The eight party leaders, or political spokesperson for the Red-Green Alliance.



From left to right:
The two guys in the back are the Social Liberal leader, Deputy PM and Minister of the Economy and Interior Morten Østergaard and DPP leader Kristian Thulesen Dahl.
In the middle we have SPP leader Pia Olsen Dyhr; Liberal leader, former PM and currently leader of the opposition Lars Løkke Rasmussen; Liberal Alliance leader Anders Samuelsen, the Red-Green Alliance political spokesperson Johanne Schmidt-Nielsen, and Conservative leader Søren Pape Poulsen.
In the chair, of course, Social Democrat leader and PM Helle Thorning-Schmidt.

Yeah, Danish politics is quite gender stereotypical at the moment with female leaders of the three "red" parties and male leaders of all five bourgeois parties. A bit weird actually after so long with Pia Kjærgaard as DPP boss (and Lene Espersen as Conservaive leader for some years), Marianne Jelved/Margrethe Vestager for Social Liberals for ages and Holger K./Søvndal for SPP.

The only Danish parties that have never had a female leader are the Liberals and the newcomers in Liberal Alliance.

Also a bit anonymous types; only Johanne Schmidt-Nielsen has personal charisma (though on a board where Göran Persson qualifies as charismatic I suppose  Helle T. and Thulesen could qualify as well )

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Also a bit anonymous types; only Johanne Schmidt-Nielsen has personal charisma (though on a board where Göran Persson qualifies as charismatic I suppose  Helle T. and Thulesen could qualify as well )

Swedes prefer their politicians boring and bland, so you should by no means use our standard of charisma.

[politicus]

Liberal leader Lars Løkke Rasmussen has in an interview demanded that the other Blue Bloc parties agree to five guiding points for a Liberal led government, while they sound uncontoversial at least DPP will have problems with a couple of them:

1. It should always pay to get a job (read lower unemployment benefits - at least for unskilled workers, which is not DPP policy)

2. More private jobs (partially a code for the Liberal idea of zero growth in public expenditures, which is not DPP policy)

3. Denmark should be more open to foreigners that "can and will - but closed to those that wont".
(first part obviously not DPP policy, omits "can not" as in traumatized/sick/elderly refugees).

4. Danes should be safe in their homes and on the streets.

5. The Health service needs to be "even better than today" (more tax financed expenditures = not Liberal Alliance policy)

[DL]

Swedes prefer their politicians boring and bland, so you should by no means use our standard of charisma.

Olaf Palme wasn't so boring...

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Swedes prefer their politicians boring and bland, so you should by no means use our standard of charisma.

Olaf Palme wasn't so boring...

Yes and that is why he was defeated twice by this man. Swedes want their Prime Minister to be boring.

[Lurker]

Swedes prefer their politicians boring and bland, so you should by no means use our standard of charisma.

Olaf Palme wasn't so boring...

Yes and that is why he was defeated twice by this man. Swedes want their Prime Minister to be boring.

On the other side, he returned to power in 1982, and was re-elected in 1985. I wouldn't say that Persson is that boring either, at least not for a politician. (though Carlsson and Reinfeldt would fall into that category).

[njwes]

Sorry for the late response but thanks politicus for the excellent responses to my questions!

I find the varying stances on Jews and Israel among Europe's right-wing parties very interesting; I didn't realize that the WWII experience was still having such an affect on Danish politics.

[Diouf]

New poll by Greens for Børsen.



Not generally a very remarkable poll. Still a huge lead for "blue bloc". Both the Social Democrats and the Liberals are getting near their 2011 election result; perhaps the doubters returning. But one potentially significant thing is that the score for "others" is the highest it has been for a very long time. This could be a bleep of course, but it might also be that one of the other candidates/parties is actually on the rise. The most realistic possibility is arguably the Alternative. According to Børsen, they have collected 15 000 out of the 20 000 signatures necessary to run, so they will probably be able to run in the forthcoming election. They could very well end up as wasted (mainly) left wing votes which would make it even harder for the "red bloc" to gather a majority. It doesn't exactly seem like the kind of party that would get a lot of votes in rural Western Jutland, so their best bet might be a multi-member constituency seat in a urban area, Copenhagen where their leader Uffe Elbæk is running, rather than getting 2% in the whole country.

[politicus]

Why do you consider the Alternative a more likely possibility than Lars Hedegaard for Others? Even if it is "Other parties" they have clearly added Indie votes to that column (and his votes will come from the right).

DPP seems to have fallen behind the two big ones - it is beginning to look like a trend (but still uncertain).

[Diouf]

Why do you consider the Alternative a more likely possibility than Lars Hedegaard for Others? Even if it is "Other parties" they have clearly added Indie votes to that column (and his votes will come from the right).

DPP seems to have fallen behind the two big ones - it is beginning to look like a trend (but still uncertain).

I mainly just followed the newspaper itself which looked in that direction:

http://borsen.dk/nyheder/politik/artikel/1/297246/maaling_er_uffe_elbaek_ved_at_lave_en_sniger.html

Agree that it could be others than the Alternative. Just looked at Facebook, and can see that the National Party (20 639) actually has more likes than the Alternative (16 247). Danish Unity only has 366 likes, but it seems that it is not their main platform. However, the Alternative has the advantage of a way more well-known leader which is still an MP while the National Party only has a local councellor; I guess that is why the newspaper assumes that it is mainly the Alternative which is getting the votes. Elbæk also has 12 182 likes on FB, while the National Party leader Kashif Ahmad only has 3 470.

Hedegaard will take votes from the right yes, but only in one multimember constituency while the Alternative and the National Party, if they get enough signatures to run, will take votes in the whole country, although probably mainly in urban areas. I think the two left-wing alternatives will have a easier time at this election due to dissatisfaction with parties like the Social Liberals and SF, whereas DF will be more vulnerable if/when they return to a position of power (and thereby responsibility).

[Zanas]

Errr... I may be doing my "Al" right now, but no political trend whatsoever can be induced by any number of Fesse-bouc likes.

[politicus]

Why do you consider the Alternative a more likely possibility than Lars Hedegaard for Others? Even if it is "Other parties" they have clearly added Indie votes to that column (and his votes will come from the right).

DPP seems to have fallen behind the two big ones - it is beginning to look like a trend (but still uncertain).

I mainly just followed the newspaper itself which looked in that direction:

http://borsen.dk/nyheder/politik/artikel/1/297246/maaling_er_uffe_elbaek_ved_at_lave_en_sniger.html

Agree that it could be others than the Alternative. Just looked at Facebook, and can see that the National Party (20 639) actually has more likes than the Alternative (16 247). Danish Unity only has 366 likes, but it seems that it is not their main platform. However, the Alternative has the advantage of a way more well-known leader which is still an MP while the National Party only has a local councillor; I guess that is why the newspaper assumes that it is mainly the Alternative which is getting the votes. Elbæk also has 12 182 likes on FB, while the National Party leader Kashif Ahmad only has 3 470.

Hedegaard will take votes from the right yes, but only in one multimember constituency while the Alternative and the National Party, if they get enough signatures to run, will take votes in the whole country, although probably mainly in urban areas. I think the two left-wing alternatives will have a easier time at this election due to dissatisfaction with parties like the Social Liberals and SF, whereas DF will be more vulnerable if/when they return to a position of power (and thereby responsibility).

I think that there is a segment of about 1-1,5% of voters who voted DPP last time but think the party has "gone soft" and that Hedegaard can tap into that group, but I admit I don't have much actual evidence to base that on. It is worth remembering that Hedegaard is far more well known than his backers in Danish Unity, so their almost non-existing support is not that relevant.
Elbæk's attempt at creating a Green party seems very amateurish and fluffy (I believe the only ones that could successfully build a green party in Denmark would be SPP right wingers who got tired of their True Leftists and decided to jump ship and start over with a new party, but Ida Auken - unfortunately - chose the Social Liberals). I consider the National Party a gimmick and a non-entity. I don't believe they have any real support.

[Diouf]

I think that there is a segment of about 1-1,5% of voters who voted DPP last time but think the party has "gone soft" and that Hedegaard can tap into that group, but I admit I don't have much actual evidence to base that on. It is worth remembering that Hedegaard is far more well known than his backers in Danish Unity, so their almost non-existing support is not that relevant.
Elbæk's attempt at creating a Green party seems very amateurish and fluffy (I believe the only ones that could successfully build a green party in Denmark would be SPP right wingers who got tired of their True Leftists and decided to jump ship and start over with a new party, but Ida Auken - unfortunately - chose the Social Liberals). I consider the National Party a gimmick and a non-entity. I don't believe they have any real support.

yeah, the Danish Unity is not very important this time around as the campaign will mainly be around Lars Hedegaard who has quite a national profile. To gauge whether he can get anywhere near a seat, you would probably have to follow the media activity in the Sjælland multimember constituency where he is running. If he wants to be elected, he should probably already be quite active in local media and so on to make his candidature and themes well-known in the region. There are 20 seats in the constituency, so he will probably need 4-4.5 % of the votes to get one of them, which will a bit above 20 000 votes. The constituency is usually the DPP's strongest area; they got 16.1% in 2011 where they received 12.3% in the whole country. It is where former party leader Pia Kjærsgaard runs, and includes some of the (rural) areas where the party has the most strength like Guldborgsund where they almost provided the mayor after the last local election. So there is quite some DPP voters to harvest, but again the question is whether enough of them feel the need to change their vote after a term in opposition. Could be interesting with a constituency poll at some point to see whether Hedegaard has any traction, but I can't really remember ever seeing one in relation to national elections.

Agreed that a bunch of SPPers would have been the best shot at creating a green party, probably with the Aukens and perhaps even Pia Olsen Dyhr as the most prominent members. Margrethe Auken also said somewhere that if they were starting the party now, it would probably be called the Green Left or something like that. I have also been very skeptical about Elbæk's chances and reports from the party has made it sound more like a process party than one with actual significant policies; a bit like the Minority Party which ran in 2005. However, I am quite impressed that it seems like they will gather enough signatures to stand, which means that they must have at least a decent party organization.
The National Party has received less attention and the party name name and launch was certainly a gimmick, but I'm not sure that they are a complete non-entity. They do have a relatively significant digital presence, and have collected around 10 000 signatures, so there is a (small) chance that they could get enough to run. Certainly, it looks like they are the least likely to get in currently, but there is the wild card of the ethnic minority vote which they have a chance of getting on board.

[ingemann]

As for the National Party I think it's unlikely to do well, it suffer from several problem.

Many immigrants don't have citizenship and can't vote, the low turnout from immigrants with citizenship and at last the core in party are Pakistani Ahmadiyyas.

Pakistani really don't have a good reputation among other immigrant groups as politicians, because of their tradition for clientism in Danish politics. The fact that most Muslims also see Ahmadiyya as the worst kind of heretics doesn't help either.

[politicus]

yeah, the Danish Unity is not very important this time around as the campaign will mainly be around Lars Hedegaard who has quite a national profile. To gauge whether he can get anywhere near a seat, you would probably have to follow the media activity in the Sjælland multimember constituency where he is running. If he wants to be elected, he should probably already be quite active in local media and so on to make his candidature and themes well-known in the region. There are 20 seats in the constituency, so he will probably need 4-4.5 % of the votes to get one of them, which will a bit above 20 000 votes. The constituency is usually the DPP's strongest area; they got 16.1% in 2011 where they received 12.3% in the whole country. It is where former party leader Pia Kjærsgaard runs, and includes some of the (rural) areas where the party has the most strength like Guldborgsund where they almost provided the mayor after the last local election. So there is quite some DPP voters to harvest, but again the question is whether enough of them feel the need to change their vote after a term in opposition. Could be interesting with a constituency poll at some point to see whether Hedegaard has any traction, but I can't really remember ever seeing one in relation to national elections.  

It is a small detail, but a place like Guldborgsund may be a marginal area, but it isn't really rural. There are 61.000 inhabitants and almost half of them lives in the largest town Nykøbing Falster and it's suburbs and ex-urbs. You have got another 10.500 in four small towns: Sakskøbing (4500), Nørre Alslev (2400), Stubbekøbing (2200) and Nysted (1300), all former boroughs except Nørre Alslev + 700 in the old ferry port Gedser. It also has some former station towns where Eskilstrup got 1100 inhabitants (but those would be more village like identity wise). It is one of those run down old SD strongholds where unemployment is too high an the young people are leaving, but it isn't more rural than the average provincial area. 2/3 urban-1/3 rural is pretty standard for provincial Denmark.
DPP seems to do better in small towns than in actual rural areas (I know as Copenhageners we can have a tendency to consider towns with 1000-5.000 people for rural, but if it is an old borough like Nysted (very much a castle town) the feeling and local identity is quite different.

Nysted - "the southernmost borough of Denmark":

[Diouf]

The Red-Green Alliance set to become the biggest party in Copenhagen

Altinget.dk has published a prognosis for Copenhagen's multi-member constituency based on a weighted average of polls. It predicts that the Red-Green Alliance will be the biggest party, and get 4 seats while the Social Democrats will be pushed down to second place, but maintain three seats. The three left-wing leaders all run in Copenhagen; the PM and Social Democrat leader Helle Thorning-Schmidt, the SPP leader Pia Olsen Dyhr, and the Red-Green political spokesperson, which if the election comes before June will be Johanne Schmidt-Nielsen. After that the rotation principle in the party sets in, and Pernille Skipper will take over. Schmidt-Nielsen received 47 002 personal votes in the 2011 election, the second-highest number, while Skipper only received 3 243 votes, although she was running in Fyn/Funen where the party's support is less than half of that in Copenhagen. Skipper has received a lot of attention in the last four years, so she will probably do really well were she to "lead" the party, both nationally and in Copenhagen, but still it would be an advantage for the Red-Green Alliance if the election is before June.

The constituencies were changed in 2007; before that Copenhagen area were divided into three smaller constituencies. I would think that this would be the first time for 100+ years that the Social Democrats would not become the most popular party in Copenhagen.
The nation-wide prognosis is unfortunately behind a pay-wall

Copenhagen constituency had 19 seats in the 2011 election, but Altinget's calculations show that they will get an extra seat in 2015. The official seat distribution is to be published shortly, I believe.

Copenhagen prognosis (change since 2011):
4 seats (+1) Red-Green Alliance
3 seats (=)   Social Democrats
3 seats (=)   Social Liberals
3 seats (=)   Liberals
3 seats (+1) DPP
2 seats (-1)  SPP
1 seat (=)     Liberal Alliance
1 seat (=)     Conservatives

http://www.altinget.dk/artikel/enhedslisten-overhaler-s-i-koebenhavn

[politicus]

The constituencies were changed in 2007; before that Copenhagen area were divided into three smaller constituencies. I would think that this would be the first time for 100+ years that the Social Democrats would not become the most popular party in Copenhagen.
The nation-wide prognosis is unfortunately behind a pay-wall

IIRC SD passed Højre ("the Right") in Copenhagen in 1898.

[Diouf]

Wilke for Jyllands-Posten made a poll regarding a thing which we have discussed in this thread as well; the potential for a party to the right of DPP.

12.8% miss a party with a stricter immigration policy than DPP; 4.9% in the red bloc and 19.5% in the blue bloc.
12.9% would consider voting for a national conservative party with a immigrationstop as its main topic; 2.8% in the red bloc and 21.1% in the blue bloc.

Polls like that haven't really been made before, so it's difficult to know whether/how much this group has grown. But, as expected, it shows that there is a potential for the party to the right of the DPP. The question is still whether it can emerge while the DPP is in opposition.

[politicus]

Wilke for Jyllands-Posten made a poll regarding a thing which we have discussed in this thread as well; the potential for a party to the right of DPP.

12.8% miss a party with a stricter immigration policy than DPP; 4.9% in the red bloc and 19.5% in the blue bloc.
12.9% would consider voting for a national conservative party with a immigrationstop as its main topic; 2.8% in the red bloc and 21.1% in the blue bloc.

Polls like that haven't really been made before, so it's difficult to know whether/how much this group has grown. But, as expected, it shows that there is a potential for the party to the right of the DPP. The question is still whether it can emerge while the DPP is in opposition.

Interesting, but those are very high numbers. I doubt anywhere near as many would actually vote for one. It is like when you ask Americans whether they would like a moderate third party in between the Dems and Pubs. You get high numbers that like the idea in principle, but would likely never act on it.

[Zanas]

Yes, but a DPP in government long enough could give way for something to emerge on its right, pretty much like AfD is doing for CDU/CSU right now.

[politicus]

Yes, but a DPP in government long enough could give way for something to emerge on its right, pretty much like AfD is doing for CDU/CSU right now.

Clearly and it could IMO also develop while they are in opposition, but would be very marginal. I see a 2-4% fringe party (dependent on how radical it became).

DPP is unlikely to enter government because 1) they don't want to lose their free rider status (and have seen what government did to SPP) 2) they could never agree with the Liberas on a common EU policy. Basically DPP will only get into government if they are significantly stronger than the three other blue bloc parties combined and can dictate EU (and immigration) policy to the others and this is completely unrealistic at the moment. You need a whole new balance of power with something like DPP 30%, Liberals 18%, Conservatives 3%, Liberal Alliance 4%.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Yes, but a DPP in government long enough could give way for something to emerge on its right, pretty much like AfD is doing for CDU/CSU right now.

Clearly and it could IMO also develop while they are in opposition, but would be very marginal. I see a 2-4% fringe party (dependent on how radical it became).

DPP is unlikely to enter government because 1) they don't want to lose their free rider status (and have seen what government did to SPP) 2) they could never agree with the Liberas on a common EU policy. Basically DPP will only get into government if they are significantly stronger than the three other blue bloc parties combined and can dictate EU (and immigration) policy to the others and this is completely unrealistic at the moment. You need a whole new balance of power with something like DPP 30%, Liberals 18%, Conservatives 3%, Liberal Alliance 4%.

How big can DPP grow before it's just silly to stay as simple government support though? I'm sure they like governing from the Folketing benches (we all know government is hazardous for your health) where they can pretend to be the opposition while de facto being in power. But at some point if the DPP continues growing that will become ridiculous. Can there really be a minority government that is smaller in support than the parties in parliament that it relies on? 

[politicus]

Yes, but a DPP in government long enough could give way for something to emerge on its right, pretty much like AfD is doing for CDU/CSU right now.

Clearly and it could IMO also develop while they are in opposition, but would be very marginal. I see a 2-4% fringe party (dependent on how radical it became).

DPP is unlikely to enter government because 1) they don't want to lose their free rider status (and have seen what government did to SPP) 2) they could never agree with the Liberas on a common EU policy. Basically DPP will only get into government if they are significantly stronger than the three other blue bloc parties combined and can dictate EU (and immigration) policy to the others and this is completely unrealistic at the moment. You need a whole new balance of power with something like DPP 30%, Liberals 18%, Conservatives 3%, Liberal Alliance 4%.

How big can DPP grow before it's just silly to stay as simple government support though? I'm sure they like governing from the Folketing benches (we all know government is hazardous for your health) where they can pretend to be the opposition while de facto being in power. But at some point if the DPP continues growing that will become ridiculous. Can there really be a minority government that is smaller in support than the parties in parliament that it relies on? 

Yes, Poul Hartling led a Liberal government based on 22 seats back in the 70s.

Our next government will almost certainly be a Liberal government with less seats than DPP + Conservatives + Liberal Alliance.

Europe is a major cleavage in Danish politics and a government involving a euro-sceptic party is just a very difficult construction. And it is an issue where DPP will not compromise. If they do not have the strength to force the Liberals to adjust their EU-policy they will stay out. Being pro-European is very important for the Liberals, so it is not an issue they will compromise on unless they are in a hopeless position. So you need something like my scenario.

Even then if the Liberals really were to get that low the (a bit more genuinely liberal) wing under Kristian Jensen might get the chairmanship (LLR would not survive going that low). It is well known Kristian Jensen doesn't like DPP and that could change things quite a bit.

So you never know, but it is actually difficult to construct a realistic scenario in which DPP gets into government. But much will depend on whether DPP keeps going left on welfare & economics and moderate a bit on integration (as they have been doing). If that happens we might see an SD-DPP coalition in 15 years, when a new generation is in charge.

[Diouf]

http://politik.tv2.dk/2015-01-30-grafik-hvor-kommer-dfs-mange-nye-vaelgere-egentlig-fra#RV

At the bottom of this page is a helpful tool to see how voters have moved since the 2011 election.

[politicus]

http://politik.tv2.dk/2015-01-30-grafik-hvor-kommer-dfs-mange-nye-vaelgere-egentlig-fra#RV

At the bottom of this page is a helpful tool to see how voters have moved since the 2011 election.

The remaining 4% from non-voters?

DPP getting more voters from the Liberals than SD begs the question how many voters the Liberals are getting directly from SD. At the moment there seem to be more voters going directly from SD to Venstre than SD to DPP.

Otherwise it is hardly surprising that SD and Venstre are the main contributors. For most ordinary non-academic/teacher, non-affluent Danes there are generally only three relevant parties: SD, Venstre and DPP. Especially outside Greater Copenhagen. Even social clients tend to vote SD, DPP and Venstre and not left wing (as some right wing pundits want us to believe).
So DPP would naturally get its voters from Venstre and SD.

You then get:

a) public sector academics, students and teachers parties: Red-Greens, SPP, Social Liberals.

b) wealthy people and/or private sector academics (and students hoping to become such creatures): Liberal Alliance, Conservatives.

With the Social Liberals having a slice of b) as well.