Denmark Parliamentary Election - June 18, 2015
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  Denmark Parliamentary Election - June 18, 2015
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Author Topic: Denmark Parliamentary Election - June 18, 2015  (Read 109207 times)
Diouf
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« Reply #50 on: February 04, 2015, 09:36:33 AM »

http://politik.tv2.dk/2015-01-30-grafik-hvor-kommer-dfs-mange-nye-vaelgere-egentlig-fra#RV

At the bottom of this page is a helpful tool to see how voters have moved since the 2011 election.

The remaining 4% from non-voters?

DPP getting more voters from the Liberals than SD begs the question how many voters the Liberals are getting directly from SD. At the moment there seem to be more voters going directly from SD to Venstre than SD to DPP.

Otherwise it is hardly surprising that SD and Venstre are the main contributors. For most ordinary non-academic/teacher, non-affluent Danes there are generally only three relevant parties: SD, Venstre and DPP. Especially outside Greater Copenhagen. Even social clients tend to vote SD, DPP and Venstre and not left wing (as some right wing pundits want us to believe).
So DPP would naturally get its voters from Venstre and SD.

You can press the different letters and see the flow from and to every party.

The lacking % must be from non-voters and new voters when looking at 2015 composition, and to others, doubters and non-voters when looking at the flows from 2011. The lowest aggregate numbers for the 2011 voters are for Radikale and SPP; 80 and 82 % of their 2011 voters respectively are shown as flowing to a 2015 party. Both parties therefore seem to have lost a relatively large number of 2011 voters to the doubters and/or non-voters. Also the two parties are probably those most in danger of losing voters to others (the Alternative and the National Party). The Alternative is very close to having enough signatures; once that happens they will be prompted for in the polls as well, but I already suspect that they are behind some of the Radikale decline recently. The fact that the two parties have seen a significant flow to doubters means that some narrowing in the polls could happen once those voters make up their mind and (to a large extent) returns to their old party or another red bloc party.

The SD still leaks around 3 times as many 2011 voters to the DPP as they do to Venstre, which makes it by quite a margin the most significant movement between the blocs. The Venstre to DPP support is still approximately twice as big as the SD to DPP support, which confirms that it is the single largest voter movement.
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ingemann
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« Reply #51 on: February 04, 2015, 02:02:13 PM »

http://politik.tv2.dk/2015-01-30-grafik-hvor-kommer-dfs-mange-nye-vaelgere-egentlig-fra#RV

At the bottom of this page is a helpful tool to see how voters have moved since the 2011 election.

The remaining 4% from non-voters?

DPP getting more voters from the Liberals than SD begs the question how many voters the Liberals are getting directly from SD. At the moment there seem to be more voters going directly from SD to Venstre than SD to DPP.

Otherwise it is hardly surprising that SD and Venstre are the main contributors. For most ordinary non-academic/teacher, non-affluent Danes there are generally only three relevant parties: SD, Venstre and DPP. Especially outside Greater Copenhagen. Even social clients tend to vote SD, DPP and Venstre and not left wing (as some right wing pundits want us to believe).
So DPP would naturally get its voters from Venstre and SD.

You then get:

a) public sector academics, students and teachers parties: Red-Greens, SPP, Social Liberals.

b) wealthy people and/or private sector academics (and students hoping to become such creatures): Liberal Alliance, Conservatives.

With the Social Liberals having a slice of b) as well.

I agree to large degree, but there are segments among non-academics/teachers who votes for these parties. Red Greens do get a lot of old communist votes, and they was often working class (of course they're also in collapse), they also get a lot of votes from people who is permanent or semi-permanent outside employment. Of course Muslim immigrants also often vote for all three parties on the left.

The conservatives also have a base among less well of people, like craftmens and urban working class. Of course both groups are remnants from when the conservatives was a a bigger party. We shouldn't underestimate party loyalty and the hostility to Venstre you find among some people on the cnetre right.
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politicus
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« Reply #52 on: February 14, 2015, 02:54:20 PM »

A poll from Wilke (conducted February 4-8) has SD above the 2011 election result - first one to show that in ages. It might be an outlier, but a Voxmeter poll also has SD above 23%.

Wilke/Voxmeter:

SD 25,6/23,6
Social Liberals 6,7/7,8
Conservatives 4,7/4,8
SPP 6,7/6,5
Liberal Alliance 5,6/5,5
Christian Democrats 1,3/0,4
DPP 19,0/19,7
Liberals 23,0/22,6
Red Greens 7,4/8,7

Red bloc 46,4/46,6

Blue bloc 53,6/53,0
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EPG
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« Reply #53 on: February 14, 2015, 05:01:59 PM »

Whither the Red-Greens? Is Denmark like rich European countries used to be, when the extremists would surge mid-term but collapse before the next election?
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ingemann
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« Reply #54 on: February 14, 2015, 05:13:08 PM »

Whither the Red-Greens? Is Denmark like rich European countries used to be, when the extremists would surge mid-term but collapse before the next election?

It's a natural result of SPP moving to the left and recreating their old base. The teachers who had almost left SPP enmass for the Red-Greens have also begun to return as their anger have begun to cool.
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Zanas
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« Reply #55 on: February 16, 2015, 11:40:55 AM »

Whither the Red-Greens? Is Denmark like rich European countries used to be, when the extremists would surge mid-term but collapse before the next election?

It's a natural result of SPP moving to the left and recreating their old base. The teachers who had almost left SPP enmass for the Red-Greens have also begun to return as their anger have begun to cool.
Yeah it's just a smooth realignment from SF's crisis last year. Plus I wouldn't precisely call SF "extremists"...
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EPG
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« Reply #56 on: February 16, 2015, 02:17:33 PM »

Not SF, but Enhedslisten.
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politicus
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« Reply #57 on: February 16, 2015, 02:54:47 PM »

Whither the Red-Greens? Is Denmark like rich European countries used to be, when the extremists would surge mid-term but collapse before the next election?

It's a natural result of SPP moving to the left and recreating their old base. The teachers who had almost left SPP enmass for the Red-Greens have also begun to return as their anger have begun to cool.
Yeah it's just a smooth realignment from SF's crisis last year. Plus I wouldn't precisely call SF "extremists"...

It is also a return to a combined total of roughly 15% for the left wing - which is the post cold war standard situation. There was a point where dissatisfied SD left wingers where going to the Red-Greens and the left wing was polling around 20%, but that effect seems to be completely neutralized now.

SPP gaining back voters is a nice accomplishment by especially party chairman Pia Olsen Dyhr, but not unexpected.

All in all it looks like the Red-Greens have lost their chance to become a big party - this time. It will still be crucial if they manage to stay ahead of SPP. If they do I think they will squeeze out SPP in the long run. SPP is the second most redundant party in Danish politics (no prize for guessing who is no. 1) and if the Red-Greens would kick out their Trots/Antifa-sympathizers, drop the rotation rule for MPs, create an actual youth organization (instead of relying on an activist style non-affiliated Socialist Youth Front), run their own list in the Euros (a chance to scoop up left wing Eurosceptics) and elect an actual chairman they could probably kill off SPP in a decade. Of course that is not going to happen, but even a couple of these changes would go a long way.

SPP has lost many of its young voters and members and rely too heavily on he "young in the 70s" brigade.

Red-Greens have gotten a lot of new members in places where they were previously absent (working class small town Jutlanders joining the Red-Greens would be almost unheard of five years ago) and lots of new municipal councillors. So their foundation is signifantly stronger and they are a genuinely national party now. But this also creates a cleavage between ideological, principled (or "semi-utopian") big city academics and practical working class people (or marginalized) with unions as their main organizational frame of reference. It is not a big problem now, but it might be further down the road.

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Zanas
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« Reply #58 on: February 17, 2015, 06:04:54 AM »

All in all it looks like the Red-Greens have lost their chance to become a big party - this time. It will still be crucial if they manage to stay ahead of SPP. If they do I think they will squeeze out SPP in the long run. SPP is the second most redundant party in Danish politics (no prize for guessing who is no. 1) and if the Red-Greens would kick out their Trots/Antifa-sympathizers, drop the rotation rule for MPs, create an actual youth organization (instead of relying on an activist style non-affiliated Socialist Youth Front), run their own list in the Euros (a chance to scoop up left wing Eurosceptics) and elect an actual chairman they could probably kill off SPP in a decade. Of course that is not going to happen, but even a couple of these changes would go a long way.
I see what you did there. Basically, what you say is : if only Red-Greens could become a "serious business" party like SD or Venstre, they would finally be a "serious business" party. Well, maybe they want to renew things a bit and not be a copy of what has always been done.
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politicus
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« Reply #59 on: February 17, 2015, 08:03:29 AM »
« Edited: February 17, 2015, 12:16:16 PM by Charlotte Hebdo »

All in all it looks like the Red-Greens have lost their chance to become a big party - this time. It will still be crucial if they manage to stay ahead of SPP. If they do I think they will squeeze out SPP in the long run. SPP is the second most redundant party in Danish politics (no prize for guessing who is no. 1) and if the Red-Greens would kick out their Trots/Antifa-sympathizers, drop the rotation rule for MPs, create an actual youth organization (instead of relying on an activist style unaffiliated Socialist Youth Front), run their own list in the Euros (a chance to scoop up left wing Eurosceptics) and elect an actual chairman they could probably kill off SPP in a decade. Of course that is not going to happen, but even a couple of these changes would go a long way.
I see what you did there. Basically, what you say is : if only Red-Greens could become a "serious business" party like SD or Venstre, they would finally be a "serious business" party. Well, maybe they want to renew things a bit and not be a copy of what has always been done.

Of course they do, but it limits their appeal beyond certain relatively well educated segments. In general working class people and rural/small town people do not like "alternative" politics.

Some of those things are also hypocritical. Red-Green MPs that step down because of rotation rules get jobs in the party organization, so in reality they remain professional politicians until they can run for office next time. They hardly ever go out on the normal labour market and get regular jobs. Making the process look like a strange ritual rather than a meaningful safeguard against inbred bread and butter politicians.

SPP has four key advantages over Red-Greens:

1) Lack of extremists and/or perceived link to extremists
2) The perception that it is a normal party
3) Is attractive/accommodating to non-socialist progressives (some from a Christian background)
4) Lack counterproductive restraints on outreach mechanisms and efficiency.

Then there is one important cleavage:
SPP being EU positive and Red-Greens being eurosceptic.

If Red-Greens are going to grow they need to counter some of those advantes. 2) and 4) are connected and 2) may be more important than 4).
1), 2) and 4) are also problematic in terms of attracting SD left wingers.

Red-Greens have inherited some network among union representatives from the old Communists and being the most anti-austerity/neo-liberal party it could potentially gain more votes from workers and disadvantaged groups if perceived as less weird and distanced. The majority of blue collar types are alienated from left wing politics at this point, but there is still a significant segment that is not.
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DavidB.
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« Reply #60 on: February 17, 2015, 11:00:12 AM »

Will the terrorist attacks from last weekend have political consequences, for instance a "rally round the flag"-effect which will benefit the left bloc and SD or a DF surge because of anti-Islam sentiments?
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ingemann
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« Reply #61 on: February 17, 2015, 12:03:12 PM »

Will the terrorist attacks from last weekend have political consequences, for instance a "rally round the flag"-effect which will benefit the left bloc and SD or a DF surge because of anti-Islam sentiments?

I don't think the left as a block will lose votes over this, I think they have almost lost all what they can to the right. But it may mean that they won't get some votes back, which would have returned. All in all I think this is a net negative for the left.

But individual parties in both blocks may suffer. On the left EL and RV are most likely to lose votes. While on the right I could see some Conservative and Venstre votes go to DPP.  especially Venstre may suffer as they have the main stream politician who have reacted the most undignified and opportunistic (Søren Pind).
DPP on the other hand have reacted surprisingly tasteful. They haven't blamed anybody yet, the only critic which have come from them are that the Danish Jews was not well enough protected and that was by Søren Espersen who married to a Jew and have a Israeli Jewish son in law (so no one really blame him for having that opinion, even if they disagree).

On the left I expect SD to the most likely to pick a few votes from the other left wing parties, I could especially see some Social Liberal votes go to them.
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ingemann
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« Reply #62 on: February 17, 2015, 12:15:38 PM »

All in all it looks like the Red-Greens have lost their chance to become a big party - this time. It will still be crucial if they manage to stay ahead of SPP. If they do I think they will squeeze out SPP in the long run. SPP is the second most redundant party in Danish politics (no prize for guessing who is no. 1) and if the Red-Greens would kick out their Trots/Antifa-sympathizers, drop the rotation rule for MPs, create an actual youth organization (instead of relying on an activist style non-affiliated Socialist Youth Front), run their own list in the Euros (a chance to scoop up left wing Eurosceptics) and elect an actual chairman they could probably kill off SPP in a decade. Of course that is not going to happen, but even a couple of these changes would go a long way.
I see what you did there. Basically, what you say is : if only Red-Greens could become a "serious business" party like SD or Venstre, they would finally be a "serious business" party. Well, maybe they want to renew things a bit and not be a copy of what has always been done.

We have had other parties which was like EL in the past and they either developed into a "serious business" party (like SPP) or they disappeared. The Retsforbund as example, while centrist (through not moderate) instead of left wing, they shared the lack of a chairman and organisational control over the MPs. These factors was a major reason for why the party failed to stay in parliament.

Also it's nice enough to strongly believe in something, but when it results in a party just being against everything no matter what, people grow tired of such a party in time.
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politicus
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« Reply #63 on: February 17, 2015, 01:34:12 PM »
« Edited: February 17, 2015, 01:47:15 PM by Charlotte Hebdo »

Will the terrorist attacks from last weekend have political consequences, for instance a "rally round the flag"-effect which will benefit the left bloc and SD or a DF surge because of anti-Islam sentiments?

There has been some speculation about whether HTS will call an election in about a month if a "rally round flag" effect materializes for fear of making "a Stoltenberg" (not capitalizing on sympathy votes and instead waiting to after the media narrative changes to critique of the authorities (which it always does). If Red Bloc is on 48% or better it would be tempting since it might be her only chance and SD has a good "campaign machine".

On the other hand in 2001 Nyrup Rasmussen tried to ride the "rally round the flag" effect after 9/11 and failed miserably and that lesson may deter SD (or it may not, we will see).

I disagree with Ingemann that the centre-left can not go any lower. Red Bloc has been picking up a bit and were on 46%+ before the shootings. I think their floor is "combined left wing" 13-15%, SD 18-20%, SocLibs 5%, so 38% total, with 33% going to the "historically socialist parties" (for lack of a better term.

30% of Danes are self identified Socialists and this group would generally never vote for "bourgeois" parties, althogh some may stay home.

That said I doubt this attack was serious enough to create a massive DPP surge (terrible thing to say, but looking at it from a practical angle). Copenhagen had its first post-war terrorist attack back in 1985, there has been a gang war going on in Copenhagen with shootings by immigrant gangs (this can be seen as merely a gang member turning his anger against new enemies), so Danes are not totally mentally unprepared for something like this to happen. The number of provocations from young Arabs ("they had it coming", "Omar is a hero for doing something instead of talking" etc.) might provoke a backlash, but probably not a sufficiently strong one. This is also tricky for DPP since they have tried to look more moderate, serious and respectable. They can not go full scale anti-Islam on this.

Some people are very angry about this and it naturally massively increases Lars Hedegaards chances of getting elected. I also think Danish Unity could have passed the threshold if they had been on the ballot, but as they are not that is a moot point.
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ingemann
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« Reply #64 on: February 17, 2015, 02:53:19 PM »

As for the floor, it should be remembered that other left wing parties are often the first choice when you shift party. So I think the floor is bigger than the sum of the difference parties floor. So while the left are not at the floor right now, I think the floor is more likely at 2-3% lower than where the left is right now, not 8%. Still I doubt this will push the left down those 2-3%, I think this attack have been felt more strongly by the more social liberal value voters, than by the Blue Socialdemocrats voter segment. It doesn't really came as a surprise for the latter or changed their opinion of Muslims (they already had a rather negative opinion). While for the former it may be something of a wake up call. In fact I think if you haven't heard it, you should hear yesterdays "Det Røde Felt" (a Danish left wing talk radio program to all you non-Danes), it was rather interesting to hear the discussion.

As for Lars Hedegaard yes I can see he has something of a opportunity right now.

Through I doubt HTS will call an election in the next month. She may if she get several good poll the next three month call a election in the late spring.
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politicus
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« Reply #65 on: February 20, 2015, 01:46:37 PM »
« Edited: February 20, 2015, 05:49:38 PM by Charlotte Hebdo »

First post-shootings poll from Megafon:

Red-Greens 10,0% (+1,2)
SPP 6,5% (-0,1)
SD 21,6% (+0,8)
Social Liberals 6,7% (+0,2)

Liberal Alliance 6,4% (+2,1)
Conservatives 5,0% (-0,3)
DPP 19,6% (-1,1)
Liberals 23,0% (-1,8)

Christian Democrats 0,5%

Other 0,8% (Lars Hedegaard mainly, I think)

Compared to their last poll in late January there is a slight gain for the left. Red-Greens gain 1,2% and SD 0,8%. Liberals lose 1,8% and DPP 1,1%, while Liberals Alliance gains 2,1% after the Ministry of Finance confirmed that their economic policy according to its economic models would make Denmark significantly more wealthy.
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politicus
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« Reply #66 on: February 20, 2015, 02:13:45 PM »

In a separate Megafon poll HTS is the most popular PM candidate:

Would you prefer Helle Thorning-Schmidt or Lars Løkke Rasmussen as PM after the next election?

Helle Thorning-Schmidt: 43%

Equally good/bad: 20%

Lars Løkke Rasmussen: 34%

Dunno: 3%


If Denmark was to be hit by a terrorist attack again would you prefer, that it was Helle Thorning-Schmidt or Lars Løkke Rasmussen that was PM in such a situation?

Helle Thorning-Schmidt: 39%

Equally good/bad: 31%

Lars Løkke Rasmussen: 21%

Dunno: 9%


Do you think HTS has handled the situation under and after the terrorist attack in Copenhagen well or badly?

Very well or well: 72%

Neither: 17%

Very badly or badly: 4%

Dunno: 7%
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rosin
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« Reply #67 on: February 23, 2015, 01:44:29 PM »

The new party Alternativet ("the Alternative") led by former cultural minister Uffe Elbæk now claims to have collected enough signatures to be on the ballots at the upcoming Folketing elections.

Link (in Danish)Sadhttp://www.dr.dk/Nyheder/Politik/2015/02/23/143958.htm
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Nortexius
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« Reply #68 on: February 23, 2015, 02:14:43 PM »

If Alternativet receives 1,9% (under the 2% threshold for parliamentary representation) of the votes in the election, their votes would indirectly benefit the Danish Peoples party and the blue bloc just as the Feminist Initiative party indirectly benefited the Sweden Democrats by only receiving 3,1% (which was under the 4% threshold in Sweden). Morten Messerschmidt of the DPP and Simon Emil Amitzböll of the Liberal Alliance encouraged their followers on Facebook and Twitter to help Alternativet get on the ballots.
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politicus
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« Reply #69 on: February 23, 2015, 02:22:00 PM »
« Edited: February 24, 2015, 11:46:26 AM by Charlotte Hebdo »

If Alternativet receives 1,9% (under the 2% threshold for parliamentary representation) of the votes in the election, their votes would indirectly benefit the Danish Peoples party and the blue bloc just as the Feminist Initiative party indirectly benefited the Sweden Democrats by only receiving 3,1% (which was under the 4% threshold in Sweden). Morten Messerschmidt of the DPP and Simon Emil Amitzböll of the Liberal Alliance encouraged their followers on Facebook and Twitter to help Alternativet get on the ballots.

Not going to happen. Uffe Elbæk is no Gudrun Schyman.

The article also says that Nationalpartiet has only got 7.000  signatures, which means they do not have a snowballs chance in hell even with a late election date. So 10 parties contesting.

EDIT: Since 2013 it has been planned to allow electronic registration of signatures, which will make it possible for voters to approve their signatures using the NemID code, that almost all Danes have and save parties a lot of man hours and the roughly 70.000$ that is cost to send enough signatures back and forth at the moment. This change was supposed to have been implemented from January 1, but is now apparently scheduled to some unknown date in the spring. If it is implemented 2-3 months before an election some of the better organized micro parties might make it, but that is a big if.

EDIT:EDIT: In all fairness some political commentators (notably Thomas Larsen on Berlingske) seems to take the possibility N. mentioned serious - but then again it is a better story than just writing them off. I would still expect them to get around 0,5%, not 1,5%+.
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« Reply #70 on: February 25, 2015, 07:17:50 AM »

If Alternativet receives 1,9% (under the 2% threshold for parliamentary representation) of the votes in the election, their votes would indirectly benefit the Danish Peoples party and the blue bloc just as the Feminist Initiative party indirectly benefited the Sweden Democrats by only receiving 3,1% (which was under the 4% threshold in Sweden). Morten Messerschmidt of the DPP and Simon Emil Amitzböll of the Liberal Alliance encouraged their followers on Facebook and Twitter to help Alternativet get on the ballots.

Not going to happen. Uffe Elbæk is no Gudrun Schyman.

It should also be noted that Feminist Initiative had eight years in the wilderness before actually going somewhere, and their first two elections they didn't come close to hitting 1% even with Schyman at the steering wheel. So I agree with politicus on this matter. Tongue
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Nortexius
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« Reply #71 on: February 25, 2015, 10:27:34 PM »

I think you guys underestimate the disillusionment that is currently felt by many Radikale and SF voters and among leftist voters in general. The Radikale and SF has lost much of their former idealistic "glow" with their participation in government. The Radikale has had to compromise heavily on matters of immigration (and other "values-issues") and proven to be more "rightwing" in economic policy than many of their voters would prefer while SF is still tainted by the disastrous exit from government and the factional fighting that occurred in that period. In contrast "Alternativet" has a fresh slate and is primarily driven by grassroots members. Unlike the Feminist Initiative which had no ballot access and no right to participate in the official party leaders debates when they started out, Alternativet has tons of legitimacy in the eyes of the voters solely by their success in getting on the ballots. Uffe Elbæk could potentially prove to be a huge success in the debates and from there only the sky is the limit.
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politicus
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« Reply #72 on: February 25, 2015, 11:42:10 PM »
« Edited: February 26, 2015, 12:06:35 AM by Charlotte Hebdo »

I think you guys underestimate the disillusionment that is currently felt by many Radikale and SF voters and among leftist voters in general. The Radikale and SF has lost much of their former idealistic "glow" with their participation in government. The Radikale has had to compromise heavily on matters of immigration (and other "values-issues") and proven to be more "rightwing" in economic policy than many of their voters would prefer while SF is still tainted by the disastrous exit from government and the factional fighting that occurred in that period. In contrast "Alternativet" has a fresh slate and is primarily driven by grassroots members. Unlike the Feminist Initiative which had no ballot access and no right to participate in the official party leaders debates when they started out, Alternativet has tons of legitimacy in the eyes of the voters solely by their success in getting on the ballots. Uffe Elbæk could potentially prove to be a huge success in the debatesand from there only the sky is the limit.

Well, unlike you I live in Denmark and I assure you that your interpretation is incorrect. Elbæk can attract a small segment on the far left of Radikale and possibly some soft Red Greens (non-socialist idealists), but SF is not particularly vulnerable. The environment will be their main selling point in the campaign and Pia Olsen Dyhr is from their green right wing. Their remaining non-socialist voters are not looking for an Alternative.

Uffe Elbæk is a nice guy, but not an efficient debater. The second bolded part is lol worthy bordering on lmao. We are talking about this guy: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6WzzJgatxg0

Another problem is the lack of well-known candidates. Former vicar Ulla Sandbæk (72), who sat in the European parliament for 15 years (for eurosceptic citizen movements - ending in 2004) is the only one except Elbæk that is well-known (a 70+ has been being the second best known should tell you something).

Elbæks only chance is to attract "names" because his project becomes cool - preferably also from the greenie part of the business world.

EDIT: Regarding refugees their policy is a mess with different people saying different things. They want to go Third Way and "think smart" both using resources more visely by helping in the near areas and at the same time send ships to the conflict zones to collect refugees in order to avoid refugee trafficking/smugling. All very nice, but in the polarized Danish "foreigner" debate stuff like that wont fly.

I actually like the Alternative (or rather elements of their policy), but their chances are very small. Someone more charismatic than Elbæk might have been able to pull it off, but it is a tough sell in a crowded market. The innovation/entrepreneurship part is the new thing and genuine left wingers are not going for that.
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ingemann
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« Reply #73 on: February 26, 2015, 07:09:55 AM »
« Edited: February 26, 2015, 08:20:04 AM by ingemann »

I haven't meet any one who really disliked the Alternative, except for a general dislike of the class of people who have made the party. But I'm not sure that's a good thing for the party. People rarely vote for a fluffy party with no edge. It's really ironic, the Alternative could and should have a very sharp edge, with them selling themselves as being in opposition to the establishment, but they're fundamental a "meh" party.

Also I agree with Politicus, Elbæk is going to be crushed in any public political debate in Denmark. Danish debates are not ugly, but they're rough and harsh, and you need to be something of a fighter to do well in them. From what I have seen of Elbæk, I really doubt he will make it. It's only in multi person debates he won't be humiliated, because the other party leaders won't waste time on him in those debates.

Also my own opinion about the whole project: It's not the worst idea. The Danish people are tired of our politicians. The problem is that one of the reasons people is tired of them, is because of their integration with the "creative class" and Elbæk is more or less the archetype of the worst elements from this group.

 
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politicus
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« Reply #74 on: February 26, 2015, 07:51:33 PM »
« Edited: February 26, 2015, 08:02:36 PM by Charlotte Hebdo »

On the topic of a right wing alternative to DPP and Islamophobia in general there was a YouGov poll conducted in late January on acceptable maximum Muslim population. It is poorly worded, but the result is still interesting and would likely be more negative post-shootings. It should also be noted that the poll does not include anyone 75+ (obviously not a pro-multiculti segment) and that "religion is a private matter" is a 97%+ view in Denmark, so including that in the no-option likely increases that number.

"How large a share of the Danish population should Muslims in your opinion maximally constitute now and in the future?"

0%: 7%
1-5%: 24%
6-10%: 14%
11-20%: 4%
20-30%: 1%
"I can and will not answer that because religion is a private matter": 42%
Dunno: 8%

There are 4,1% Muslims in Denmark with a high share of children/youth and relatively high fertility, so anything below 7-8% would de facto require repatriations.
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